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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 17, 2025
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20686087

Description

The economy avoided a technical recession in 2025, but we expect lacklustre growth in the near term due to US tariffs, elevated trade policy uncertainty, and slowing demographic demand. However, large fiscal stimulus, the tailwinds of past interest rate cuts, and lower tariffs after the expected renegotiation of the USMCA should underpin a growth pickup in H2 2026 and 2027.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Canada: A tenuous outlook heading into 2026
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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