We have downgraded our forecasts for Australia due to the major disruptions to the global economy caused by changes to US trade policy. We now expect growth of 1.8% in 2025 (down from 2.1%), and 2.1% in 2026 (from 2.5%). Australia's direct exposure to higher US trade barriers is low. But weaker growth in major trading partners will be a negative shock to external demand.
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