UK Commercial Property Insurance: Market Dynamics and Opportunities 2024
Summary
This report analyzes the UK commercial property insurance market, looking at drivers of uptake across different demographics and dwelling types. It discusses the current claims landscape, the commercial property market across London, and the upcoming regulatory changes within insurance. Incumbent competitors are analyzed and compared, along with newcomers and insurtechs within the space. Future impactors in the market are also examined, including climate change, sustainability, underinsurance, and the changing office environment.
GlobalData projects that gross written premiums (GWP) for the UK commercial property market grew by 3.3% in 2024, reaching GBP13.9 billion by year-end, as rising repair costs and continued hardening market rates push premiums higher. In 2023, the UK commercial property insurance market’s GWP grew by 15.4% to GBP13.5 billion, driven primarily by rising premium prices due to persistently high inflation and supply chain disruptions that increased rebuild costs. Claims notifications (excluding subsidence and other claims for comparative purposes) returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, supported by a 15.7% reduction in claims, including a notable 43.6% drop in weather-related claims.
Scope
- The UK commercial property insurance market is expected to have grown by 3.3% to GBP13.9 billion in 2024, following a 15.4% growth in 2023.
- Gross claims incurred increased by 14.9% in 2023, driven particularly by a significant 38.5% increase in escape of water claims.
- There was a 15.7% drop in claims notified, driven by a 43.6% drop in weather-related claims.
- Analyze the drivers of growth within the UK commercial property market.
- Determine areas of concern for insurers and the wider market, including in the claims landscape.
- Recognize the impact of Brexit, the cost-of-living crisis, and inflation on the market.
- Ascertain the market shares of the leading players.
- Examine future opportunities and challenges within the market.
- Executive Summary
- Market overview
- Key findings
- Critical success factors
- Market Dynamics
- The UK commercial property insurance sector experienced strong growth in 2023
- Table Figure 1: The UK commercial property insurance market grew by 15.4% in 2023
- Table UK commercial property insurance market GWP and growth rate, 2019-23
- The claims environment for commercial property noted a fall in paid claims and a decline in reported claims in 2023
- Table Figure 2: Overall gross claims paid decreased by 8.5% in 2023
- Table Gross claim paid (GBP million), by type, 2019-23
- Table Figure 3: Overall, the number of claims improved in 2023, falling by 15.9%
- Table Number of claims notified (000s), by type, 2019-23
- The construction industry is expected to have declined in 2024 due to increased uncertainty
- Table Figure 4: Commercial construction output is expected to maintain growth over the forecast period
- Table UK commercial construction output, 2023-28f
- Table Construction output, non-seasonally adjusted, current prices by sector (GBP billion), 2019-23
- Growing investment activity in London is anticipated to have increased further in 2024
- Tax incentives and regulation frameworks influence commercial property investment
- Table Figure 5: Buy-to-let mortgages started to increase in 2024 following 18 months of reduction
- Conversions from commercial to residential properties will impact the commercial property market
- Table Figure 6: The population in the UK rose by 1% in 2023
- The UK commercial property insurance sector experienced strong growth in 2023
- Competitor Dynamics
- Aviva retains its position as the leading commercial property insurance provider in 2023
- Table Figure 7: Aviva maintains its position as the leader in the commercial property insurance market
- Table Competitor market shares and GWP, 2021-23
- Insurtech innovations and further developments
- Aviva retains its position as the leading commercial property insurance provider in 2023
- The Market Going Forward
- Commercial property insurance is expected to grow to GBP18.36 billion by 2028
- Table Figure 8: GWP is forecasted to grow until 2028, when it will reach GBP18.36 billion
- The effects of inflation and high interest rates on the construction sector
- Terrorism risks will create new opportunities
- The impacts of climate change on the insurance industry
- Table Figure 9: 25.2% of respondents see severe weather as the biggest risk to the insurance industry
- The underinsurance gap persists
- Changing working models' impact on the insurance industry
- Table Figure 10: Roughly 58% of employees do not anticipate returning to full-time office work as of 2023
- Table Figure 11: 81.4% of individuals typically spent three or fewer days in the office in 2023
- The adoption of sustainable material underwriting aids in the transition to net zero
- AI will revolutionize the insurance value chain
- Table Figure 12: Only 10.2% of respondents believe the integration of AI has met expectations
- Innovative technology enhances the claims assessment process and increases the efficiency of the insurance sector
- Commercial property insurance is expected to grow to GBP18.36 billion by 2028
- Appendix
- Abbreviations and acronyms
- Methodology
- Table Figure 13: Forecasting methodology
- Secondary sources
- Further reading
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