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Mobile Broadband Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa

Mobile Broadband Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa

Summary

Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will reach around 999m in 2017. We expect the population to cross 1bn in 2018 and reach 1.14bn by the end of 2022, translating into a 2017-22 CAGR of over 2%. Nigeria (190m) and Ethiopia (104m) are the two most populous countries in the region. Sub-Saharan Africa is the youngest region in the world, with over 45% of the population being 15 or under. While this creates opportunity in the form of new consumers for mobile services, it also creates challenges for the domestic economies that must absorb young people as they join the workforce.

Mobile operators in Sub-Saharan Africa will add around 30m users in 2017, bringing the total number of unique mobile users to over 450m. It is expected that the operators to add over 170m more users to their networks by 2022, bringing the total to around 0.6 Billion.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s unique mobile user penetration will cross 45.3% by year-end 2017, the lowest rate worldwide. We expect user penetration levels in the region to surpass the 50% mark in 2020 and to reach 55% by year-end 2022. The regional figures mask significant country differences, for e.g. CAR’s penetration is only just over 20% in 2017.

Mobile subscriptions in the Sub-Saharan Africa region will top 717m by year-end 2017, a 2% increase over year-end 2016. We expect subscriptions in the region to top 1bn in 2022 representing a CAGR of 7%. Central Africa will enjoy the highest growth through 2022 (over 11% CAGR).

The report Mobile Broadband Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, provides an executive-level overview of the mobile telecom market in Sub-Saharan Africa. It delivers deep qualitative insight into the mobile market, analyzing key trends and in the region.

In depth, this report provides the following -

  • Global context: Mobile telecom market size and trends in Sub-Saharan Africa compared with other countries in the region.
  • Economic, demographic and political context in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • The regulatory environment and trends.
  • A demand profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the mobile voice and mobile data markets.
  • Service evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the mobile voice and data from 2016 to 2022.
Companies mentioned in this report: MTN, Airtel, Huwaei, Orange

Scope
  • The overall mobile service revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa will decline at a CAGR of 1.6% during 2017-2022.
  • Mobile data revenue will account for 46.2% of the total telecom revenue in 2022, driven by increasing adoption and usage of mobile broadband services.
  • 3G will be the most adopted mobile technology across the by 2022. Rising demand for high-speed data service and expansion of the 4G network will also drive 4G subscriber growth.
  • Nigeria will account for 15% of net adds in the region between 2017 and 2022. DRC, South Africa, Tanzania and Cote d’Ivoire will round out the list of top five contributors to the region’s subscription growth over the next five years.
Reasons to buy
  • This Insider Report provides a comprehensive examination thorough, forward-looking analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile telecommunications markets trends in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
  • Accompanying GlobalData’s Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Sub-Saharan Africa’s mobile communications markets.
  • With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
  • The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Sub-Saharan Africa.


Sub-Saharan Africa’s Mobile Broadband Markets - Key Takeaways 7
Section 1: Sub-Saharan Africa In a Global Context 9
Section 2: Mobile Broadband Subscription Trends In Sub-Saharan Africa 17
Section 3: Mobile Broadband Revenue Trends In Sub-Saharan Africa 30
Appendix 33
List of Tables
Distribution of subscriptions by region, 2017 8
Distribution of mobile service revenue by region, 2017 8
Distribution of mobile service revenue by country, 2017 8
Sub-Saharan Africa’s four regions, 2017 10
Population, 2016-2022 (millions) 11
Urbanization, 2010-2016 (% of pop) 11
Population aged 0-15 (% of pop) 11
Nominal GDP, 2016-2022 (US$ trillion) 12
Real GDP growth, 2010-2016 12
Informal sector, 2014 (% of GDP) 12
Inflation, regional average, 2012-2018 13
Decline in selected local currencies relative to US dollar (2014-2017) 13
User penetration, 2017 (% of population) 15
Subscription penetration, 2017 (% of population) 15
Prepaid subscriptions as a % of total subscriptions 15
Monthly ARPU, 2017 (US$) 16
Data as a share of total ARPU, 2017 (% of ARPU) 16
Mobile users, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022 (millions) 18
User penetration by sub-region, 2016-2022 (% of pop) 18
Most under-penetrated markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017 19
Mobile subscriptions by region, 2016-2022 (millions) 20
Mobile subscription penetration by sub-region, 2017 (% of pop) 20
Mobile subscription penetration, selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017 vs 2022 21
Mobile subscription net adds by country, 2017-2022 22
Mobile subscriptions by device type, 2016-2022 (% of subscriptions) 23
Net additions by device type, 2017 vs 2022 (millions) 23
Mobile handset subscriptions by type, 2016-2022 24
Smartphone subscriptions as a share of total handsets, 2016-2022 24
MTN Ghana Huawei Ascend promotion, 2017 25
Airtel Tanzania smartphone promotions, 2017 25
M2M subscriptions, 2016-2022 (millions) 26
M2M revenue as % of total mobile service revenue 26
Mobile subscriptions by technology generation, select countries, 2016-2022 27
Network launches by technology in Sub-Saharan Africa 27
Data usage per subscriber, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022 (MB/month) 28
Data traffic split per device type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022 28
Mobile money services available in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2016 29
Mobile money user penetration, 2016-2022 29
Total mobile service revenues by category, US$ million, 2016-2022 31
Total mobile service revenue as a share of nominal GDP 32
List of Figures
Distribution of subscriptions by region, 2017 8
Distribution of mobile service revenue by region, 2017 8
Distribution of mobile service revenue by country, 2017 8
Sub-Saharan Africa’s four regions, 2017 10
Population, 2016-2022 (millions) 11
Urbanization, 2010-2016 (% of pop) 11
Population aged 0-15 (% of pop) 11
Nominal GDP, 2016-2022 (US$ trillion) 12
Real GDP growth, 2010-2016 12
Informal sector, 2014 (% of GDP) 12
Inflation, regional average, 2012-2018 13
Decline in selected local currencies relative to US dollar (2014-2017) 13
User penetration, 2017 (% of population) 15
Subscription penetration, 2017 (% of population) 15
Prepaid subscriptions as a % of total subscriptions 15
Monthly ARPU, 2017 (US$) 16
Data as a share of total ARPU, 2017 (% of ARPU) 16
Mobile users, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022 (millions) 18
User penetration by sub-region, 2016-2022 (% of pop) 18
Most under-penetrated markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017 19
Mobile subscriptions by region, 2016-2022 (millions) 20
Mobile subscription penetration by sub-region, 2017 (% of pop) 20
Mobile subscription penetration, selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017 vs 2022 21
Mobile subscription net adds by country, 2017-2022 22
Mobile subscriptions by device type, 2016-2022 (% of subscriptions) 23
Net additions by device type, 2017 vs 2022 (millions) 23
Mobile handset subscriptions by type, 2016-2022 24
Smartphone subscriptions as a share of total handsets, 2016-2022 24
MTN Ghana Huawei Ascend promotion, 2017 25
Airtel Tanzania smartphone promotions, 2017 25
M2M subscriptions, 2016-2022 (millions) 26
M2M revenue as % of total mobile service revenue 26
Mobile subscriptions by technology generation, select countries, 2016-2022 27
Network launches by technology in Sub-Saharan Africa 27
Data usage per subscriber, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022 (MB/month) 28
Data traffic split per device type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022 28
Mobile money services available in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012-2016 29
Mobile money user penetration, 2016-2022 29
Total mobile service revenues by category, US$ million, 2016-2022 31
Total mobile service revenue as a share of nominal GDP 32

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