Mexico Construction Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts by Sector - Commercial, Industrial, Infrastructure, Energy and Utilities, Institutional and Residential Market Analysis to 2029 (Q1 2025)
Summary
GlobalData expects Mexico’s construction industry to decline by 7.1% in 2025, product of precarious US-Mexican relations, weaker public stimulus, and high base effect. In February 2025, Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all Mexican imports, albeit levies on USMCA counterparts have been repetitively postponed - now postponed until April 2nd. Despite the US having a total trade deficit of $162 billion to Mexico, the US has a net-surplus in terms of industrial supplies and materials of $65.8 billion, according to the US Economic Bureau (2023). Hence, hypothetical reciprocal tariffs of 25% will disproportionately weigh on Mexico’s construction industry; this is particularly pertinent for Mexico’s energy and utilities sector, given the US is one of the largest importers of Mexican gas. Moreover, if US-Mexico relations continue to fracture, Mexican exports are likely to become less competitive, leading to reduced inflows of US Dollars and turbulence in foreign exchange (FX) markets. Consequently, US tariffs are expected to weaken Mexico’s construction industry through diminished foreign direct investments (FDI) and waning business confidence in the Mexican Peso. Nevertheless, weakened US-Mexican relations could inadvertently nurture elevated Chinese investment.
In the longer term, despite ubiquitous economic uncertainty, Mexico’s construction industry is expected to recover and register annual average growth of 2.5% between 2026 and 2028, supported by public-private sector investment in oil and gas, transport infrastructure, and industrial construction projects. In January 2025, President Claudia Sheinbaum introduced the Mexico 2030 Plan, prioritising the development of tourism, consumer goods, automotive, information technology, and energy sectors, including corresponding land allocations for construction
GlobalData’s Construction in Mexico - Key Trends and Opportunities to 2029 (Q1 2025) report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Mexican construction industry, including -
- The Mexican construction industry's growth prospects by market, project type and construction activity
- Critical insight into the impact of industry trends and issues, as well as an analysis of key risks and opportunities in the Mexican construction industry
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, focusing on development stages and participants, in addition to listings of major projects in the pipeline.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the construction industry in Mexico. It provides -
- Historical (2020-2024) and forecast (2025-2029) valuations of the construction industry in Mexico, featuring details of key growth drivers.
- Segmentation by sector (commercial, industrial, infrastructure, energy and utilities, institutional and residential) and by sub-sector
- Analysis of the mega-project pipeline, including breakdowns by development stage across all sectors, and projected spending on projects in the existing pipeline.
- Listings of major projects, in addition to details of leading contractors and consultants
- Identify and evaluate market opportunities using our standardized valuation and forecasting methodologies
- Assess market growth potential at a micro-level with over 600 time-series data forecasts
- Understand the latest industry and market trends
- Formulate and validate business strategies using GlobalData's critical and actionable insight
- Assess business risks, including cost, regulatory and competitive pressures
- Evaluate competitive risk and success factors
- 1 Executive Summary
- 2 Construction Industry: At-a-Glance
- 3 Context
- 3.1 Economic Performance
- 3.2 Political Environment and Policy
- 3.3 Demographics
- 3.4 Risk Profile
- 4 Construction Outlook
- 4.1 All Construction
- Outlook
- Latest news and developments
- Construction Projects Momentum Index
- 4.2 Commercial Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.3 Industrial Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.4 Infrastructure Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.5 Energy and Utilities Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.6 Institutional Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 4.7 Residential Construction
- Outlook
- Project analytics
- Latest news and developments
- 5 Key Industry Participants
- 5.1 Contractors
- 5.2 Consultants
- 6 Construction Market Data
- 7 Appendix
- 7.1 What is this Report About?
- 7.2 Definitions
- 7.3 CRI Methodology
- 8 About GlobalData
- 9 Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Construction Industry Key Data
- Table 2: Mexico, Key Economic Indicators
- Table 3: Mexico, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020–29
- Table 4: Mexico, Top Commercial Construction Projects by Value
- Table 5: Mexico, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020–29
- Table 6: Mexico, Top Industrial Construction Projects by Value
- Table 7: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 8: Mexico, Top Infrastructure Construction Projects by Value
- Table 9: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 10: Mexico, Top Energy and Utilities Construction Projects by Value
- Table 11: Mexico, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 12: Mexico, Top Institutional Construction Projects by Value
- Table 13: Mexico, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real % Change), 2020-29
- Table 14: Mexico, Top Residential Construction Projects by Value
- Table 15: Mexico, Key Contractors
- Table 16: Mexico, Key Consultants
- Table 17: Mexico, Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million)
- Table 18: Mexico, Construction Output Value (Nominal, MXN Billion)
- Table 19: GlobalData Construction Market Definitions
- Table 20: Risk Dimensions
- Table 21: Ratings, Scores and Definitions
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Latin America, Construction Output (Real % Change), 2023–29
- Figure 2: Mexico, Construction Output by Sector (Real % Change), 2023–25 and 2026–29
- Figure 3: Mexico, Risk Summary
- Figure 4: Mexico, Risk Regional Comparison
- Figure 5: Mexico, Construction Output Value (Real, $ Million, 2022 Prices and Exchange Rate), 2020–29
- Figure 6: Mexico, Construction Output Value, by Sector (Real, $ Million), 2020–29
- Figure 7: Mexico, Construction Value-add, 2018 Prices (MXN Billion)
- Figure 8: Mexico, Construction Confidence Index, In Seasonally Adjusted Terms
- Figure 9: Mexico, Gross Fixed Investment Index (2018=100)
- Figure 10: Mexico, Construction Production Volume Index (2018=100)
- Figure 11: Mexico, Construction Employment As a Percentage of Total Population
- Figure 12: Mexico, Construction Material Price Indexes for the Domestic Market (2019=100), % Change
- Figure 13: Mexico, Construction Projects Momentum Index
- Figure 14: Latin America, Construction Projects Momentum Index
- Figure 15: Mexico, Commercial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020–29
- Figure 16: Mexico, Commercial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 17: Mexico, Total International Tourist Arrivals (In Thousands)
- Figure 18: Mexico, Wholesale and Retail Trade Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
- Figure 19: Mexico, Value-add of Artistic, Cultural, Sports and Other Related Activities (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
- Figure 20: Mexico, Commercial Trade Confidence Index, In Seasonally Adjusted Terms
- Figure 21: Mexico, Industrial Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020–29
- Figure 22: Mexico, Industrial Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 23: Mexico, Manufacturing Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
- Figure 24: Mexico, Manufacturing Orders Indicator (IPM), In Seasonally Adjusted Terms
- Figure 25: Mexico, Manufacturing Confidence Index, In Seasonally Adjusted Terms
- Figure 26: Mexico, Total Merchandise Exports ($ Billion)
- Figure 27: Mexico, Industrial, manufacturing and mining production volume indice
- Figure 28: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 29: Mexico, Infrastructure Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 30: Mexico, Construction Production Volume Index for Civil Engineering Activities (2018=100)
- Figure 31: Mexico, Value-add of Civil Engineering Activities, In 2018 Prices, In MXN Billion
- Figure 32: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 33: Mexico, Energy and Utilities Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 34: Mexico, Generation, Transmission and Distribution of Electrical Energy Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
- Figure 35: Mexico, Telecommunications Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
- Figure 36: Mexico, Production Volume Index for Oil and Gas Extraction (2018=100)
- Figure 37: Mexico, Electricity Production Volume Index (original series, 2018=100), % Change YoY
- Figure 38: Mexico, Institutional Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 39: Mexico, Institutional Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 40: Mexico, Value-add of Education, Health, and Social Care Services, 2018 Prices, % Change YoY Prices)
- Figure 41: Mexico, Residential Construction Output by Project Type (Real, $ Million), 2020-29
- Figure 42: Mexico, Residential Construction Projects Pipeline, Value by Stage ($ Million)
- Figure 43: Mexico, Real Estate Services Value-add (MXN Billion, 2018 Prices)
- Figure 44: Mexico, House Price Index (2017=100)
- Figure 45: Mexico, Gross Fixed Investment on Residential Buildings, 2018=100
- Figure 46: Mexico, Headquarters of Key Contractors (% of Total Project Pipeline)
- Figure 47: Mexico, Headquarters of Key Consultants (% of Total Project Pipeline)
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