Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Global (Q3 2024 Update)

Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Global (Q3 2024 Update)

Summary

The global economic growth for 2024 is projected at 2.52%, according to the Q3 2024 update. This marks a marginal increase of 0.05 percentage points over the previous forecast, despite the geopolitical uncertainties. The resilience of major economies such as the US and the Eurozone, besides a gradual recovery in emerging markets, likely contributed to such stable growth. Although inflation appears to be easing globally, persistent supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions could affect growth.

Central banks are titrating monetary policies to ensure economic growth, while inflation continues to decelerate. The global inflation rate is expected to decline from 5.8% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024. The major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), have commenced rate cuts, with the US Federal Reserve anticipated to follow suit. This policy shift is expected to stimulate investment and consumer spending to curtail economic downturn and stabilize the markets. However, central banks must tread carefully to avoid reigniting inflation or creating financial imbalance to ensure a balanced economic recovery.

In the Q3 2024 update, GlobalData increased its global real GDP growth forecast for 2024 by 0.05 percentage points over the Q2 2024 update. This revision reflects increasing consumer confidence due to easing price pressure and economic improvement following central banks' policy rate cuts. Growth forecasts have been raised by 0.11 percentage points for the Americas, and by 0.21 percentage points for Europe. Conversely, projections have been lowered by 0.08 percentage points for Asia-Pacific and by 0.25 percentage points for the Middle East & Africa.

Key Highlights

• Since early 2022, the major economies have embarked on a cycle of rate hikes, resulting in historically high policy rates. However, with the easing of inflationary pressure, the European Central Bank, along with central banks in Canada, Switzerland, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and others, lowered its policy rates in the first eight months of 2024. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks, is anticipated to reduce the key benchmark rate in the months ahead.
• The major economies reported a decrease in inflation rates, largely due to monetary tightening. GlobalData projects the global inflation rate to decrease from 5.8% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, and 3.7% in 2025. In 2024, the inflation rate is expected to decrease in all regions: the Americas, excluding Argentina and Venezuela (dropping to 5% in 2024 from 7.5% in 2023), Asia-Pacific (decreasing to 5% from 6.9%), Europe (declining to 4.3% from 7.8%), and the Middle East and Africa (falling to 22.1% from 27%).
• From January 2024 to June 2024, consumer and business confidence have risen considerably in major economic groups, including the G20 and G7 countries. The easing inflationary pressure and lower policy rates likely led to such improvement. However, within the EU27, business confidence remained weak during the first half of 2024, while consumer confidence improved significantly.

Scope

GlobalData's Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report identifies, analyzes, and forecasts key development of the global economy. The report provides a 360-degree view of the economy which can be used as a strategic tool to understand market dynamics, business potential and direction of operations.Reasons to Buy

• Comprehensive Insights: Offers a detailed analysis of global economic trends, including growth projections, inflation, and policy shifts across major regions and countries.
• Data-Driven Forecasts: Includes robust data on economic performance indicators, helping businesses and investors make informed decisions for 2024 and beyond.
• Regional Comparisons: Provides comparative analysis of economic prospects across the Americas, Europe, APAC, and MEA
• Expert Analysis: Features expert commentary on key factors shaping the global economy, such as geopolitical developments, trade dynamics, and fiscal policies.