India: Intense Competition in Mobile Services Segment to Result in Market Consolidation
Indian telecom service market generated revenue of US$40.4bn (equivalent to 1.8% of nominal GDP) in 2016, an increase of 2.7% since 2015. Mobile voice was the largest revenue-contributing segment and accounted for 62.4% of total service revenue, but its share is estimated to decline over the forecast period and reach 47.9% in 2021, mainly due to increasing preference for data services and migration toward OTT communication services.
It is expected that overall service revenue to grow at a CAGR of 3.0% during 2016-2021. Growth in the market over the forecast period will be driven by mobile data revenue as a result of rising adoption of LTE networks and consumption of mobile content and applications. The fixed/mobile revenue split will be dominated by the mobile segment through 2016-2021, with mobile revenue set to account for 82.4% of total service revenue in 2021.
2G was the most widely adopted technology and accounted for 71.9% of mobile subscriptions in 2016. However, its share will rapidly decline over the forecast period and reach 20.5% by 2021, due to rising adoption of 3G and 4G services. 3G is projected to make up 66.6% of total mobile subscriptions in 2021. 4G subscriptions will grow at a CAGR of 90.9% during 2016-2021, driven by operator focus on 4G network expansions and unlimited 4G data plans. Broadband lines will see moderate growth during 2016-2021, with penetration set to increase from 1.4% of the population in 2016 to 1.5% by 2021, supported by the government’s initiatives to expand the fiber-optic network under its BharatNet project.
The top two operators, Airtel and Vodafone, accounted for 37.3% of total service revenue in 2016. Airtel will continue to maintain its leadership position in the telecom market through 2021. Leading operators are offering competitively priced bundled plans with unlimited data and free calling to retain their subscribers and sustain their share despite growing competition from new disruptive entrant Reliance Jio.
Over the next five years, operators can work toward enhancing 4G/LTE and fiber network connectivity and providing value-added services such as mobile banking in line with the government’s plans to increase broadband connectivity in the nation and to turn the country into a digital economy.
The report India: Intense Competition in Mobile Services Segment to Result in Market Consolidation, provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in India today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2021. Published annually, the report provides detailed analysis of the near-term opportunities, competitive dynamics and evolution of demand by service type and technology/platform across the fixed telephony, broadband, and mobile, as well as a review of key regulatory trends.
In particular, this report provides the following analysis -
Regional context: Telecom market size and trends in India compared with other countries in the region.
Economic, demographic and political context in India.
The regulatory environment and trends: A review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.
A demand profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data markets.
Service evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2021.
The competitive landscape: An examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services: A quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
Companies mentioned in this report: BSNL, Airtel India, Reliance, Vodafone India, Idea, Tata Indicom. Tatasky, Dish TV, MTNL.
The overall telecom service revenue in India will grow at a CAGR of 3.0% during 2016-2021, mainly driven by growth in mobile data, fixed broadband and fixed VoIP segments.
Mobile revenue will account for 82.4% of the total telecom revenue in 2021; mobile data will witness a CAGR of 16.5% during 2016-2021.
The top two operators, Airtel and Vodafone, accounted for 37.3% share of overall service revenue in 2016. We expect competition to intensify with the entry of Reliance Jio in early 2017.
National Telecom policy - 2012 aims to boost broadband subscriptions to 175m by 2017 and to 600m by 2020 and increase rural teledensity to 100% by then.
Reasons to buy
This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of India's telecommunications markets, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
Accompanying GlobalData’s Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in India's mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.
With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in India's telecommunications markets.
The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in India.