
Critical Minerals - Thematic Intelligence
Description
Critical Minerals - Thematic Intelligence
Summary
Over 70 countries have set net-zero targets, and even more have pledged to lower their emissions. However, these widespread objectives for a greener future are straining supplies of natural resources, especially the minerals required to produce energy transition technologies such as electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. Many of these minerals are considered critical because resources are either in short supply, monopolized by individual regions, or at risk of significant supply chain disruption. Energy transition objectives will be delayed if critical mineral supply cannot meet demand.
Key Highlights
Demand for clean energy technologies has grown as their capabilities and performance have improved. The imperative to mitigate climate change has further accelerated demand, with consumers putting pressure on corporations and governments to act. Adoption has also been aided by significant reductions in cost over recent years, with solar power, as the fastest-growing energy source, surpassing 1 terawatt (TW) globally in 2022. In the transport sector, electric vehicles will account for 50% of light vehicle production by 2035. However, there are concerns that the affordability of clean energy technologies will be affected by impending shortages as mineral production struggles to keep pace with demand.
Deposits of critical minerals are typically found in specific regions of the world. For example, much of the world’s lithium reserves are concentrated in South America and Australia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) provides much of the world’s cobalt, and Indonesia dominates nickel production. The race to control these mineral assets has led to intense rivalries between China, the US, and the EU, with China currently dominating the mineral supply chain and the development of energy transition technologies. The escalating rivalries have resulted in the imposition of trading sanctions by the West to level the playing field, which has disrupted global supply chains leading to market volatility.
Scope
- This report provides an overview of the critical minerals theme.
- It identifies the main trends surrounding critical minerals and the energy trasition, split into three categories: technology trends, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory trends.
- It includes comprehensive industry analysis, including market size forecasts for cybersecurity and analysis of patents, company filings, hiring, and social media trends.
- It looks at demand-side drivers for critical minerals, including electric vehicles, solar energy, wind energy, nuclear power, and hydrogen, and supply-side risks for critical minerals, including mineral depletion, resource monopolization, geopolitics, and water stress.
- The report includes analysis of critical mineral strategies by region, covering China, the US, the EU, South America, and Canada.
- It also incoporates analysis of various signals, including mergers and acquisitions, social media posts, and company filings, and profiles of mining companies producing critical minerals.
- Energy transition objectives are key for curbing the harmful effects of fossil fuels on climate change. However, the rapid scale-up of clean energy technologies required to reduce carbon emissions depends upon the intensive mining of several minerals. Due to the projected increase in demand for these minerals, they are classified as critical for achieving energy transition goals.
- This report provides a clear and concise introduction to the key issues surrounding critical minerals, with a specific focus on their role in energy transition.
Table of Contents
61 Pages
- Executive Summary
- Players
- Thematic Briefing
- Critical minerals for energy transition
- Trends
- Technology trends
- Macroeconomic trends
- Regulatory trends
- Demand-Side Drivers for Critical Minerals
- Electric vehicles
- Key mineral threats
- Solar
- Key mineral threats
- Wind
- Key mineral threats
- Nuclear
- Key mineral threats
- Hydrogen
- Key mineral threats
- Supply-Side Risks for Critical Minerals
- Mineral depletion
- Electric vehicles are putting a strain on lithium production
- Mineral depletion leads to price volatility
- The consequences of decreasing ore grade
- Recycling is vital to mitigate shortages
- Resource monopolization
- Monopolization poses a growing threat
- The Russia-Ukraine war exposes mineral vulnerabilities
- New battery chemistries are changing the nickel market
- The graphite market is diversifying
- Geopolitics
- Trade wars
- Ethics and sustainability
- Water stress
- The use of seawater in mining is growing in water-scarce regions
- Direct lithium extraction – environmentally friendly lithium mining
- Critical Mineral Strategies by Region
- China
- China is investing billions in the African continent
- China is considering a rare earth export ban
- The US
- Escalating efforts to compete with China
- The EU
- Energy independence ambitions are placing strain on the minerals supply
- The EU’s response to the US Inflation Reduction Act
- South America
- Canada
- Canada is home to many critical mineral reserves
- Signals
- M&A trends
- Social media trends
- Company filing trends
- Companies
- Public companies
- Private companies
- Glossary
- Further Reading
- GlobalData reports
- Our Thematic Research Methodology
- About GlobalData
- Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Technology trends
- Table 2: Macroeconomic trends
- Table 3: Regulatory trends
- Table 4: Key M&A transactions associated with critical mineral mining since January 2021
- Table 5: Public companies
- Table 6: Private companies
- Table 7: Glossary
- Table 8: GlobalData reports
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Key companies that could be impacted by the critical minerals theme
- Figure 2: China will produce almost 6,000 TWh of electricity generated by non-fossil fuels by 2030
- Figure 3: Map of major producing countries of critical minerals
- Figure 4: The production of the most critical minerals is dominated by a few countries
- Figure 5: Electric vehicles are expected to account for more than 50% of light vehicle production by 2035
- Figure 6: Solar power is forecast to account for 15% of global electricity generation by 2035, up from 5% in 2022
- Figure 7: Wind power is expected to generate 15% of the world’s electricity by 2035, up from 7% in 2022
- Figure 8: The nuclear power market share is expected to plateau between 2022 and 2035
- Figure 9: Green hydrogen production expected to increase to 145,886 kilo-tonnes per annum (ktpa) in 2030
- Figure 10: The four key risks facing the supply of critical minerals
- Figure 11: Lithium supplies are crucial for meeting electric vehicle objectives in 2035
- Figure 12: Critical minerals are experiencing substantial price volatility
- Figure 13: The low recycling rate of critical minerals is likely to exacerbate shortages
- Figure 14: Recycling may be essential to offset production deficits
- Figure 15: China dominates much of the critical mineral refinement and processing
- Figure 16: Geographic production monopolies are expected to remain relatively unchanged in the short term
- Figure 17: Lithium is at the highest risk of supply chain disruption
- Figure 18: Batteries are expected to gain a greater share of nickel production end use
- Figure 19: The world’s largest natural graphite reserves are outside of China
- Figure 20: Key milestones of the US-China trade war since 2018
- Figure 21: Copper and lithium mines are typically found in water-stressed regions
- Figure 22: Direct lithium extraction is expected to be the more economical, efficient, and environmentally friendly method of brine extraction
- Figure 23: Several countries and regions have prioritized the production and acquisition of certain minerals
- Figure 24: The flow of foreign direct investment in Africa from China and the US since 2003
- Figure 25: The US has reduced its import reliance on several critical minerals
- Figure 26: Canada has numerous advanced mineral projects
- Figure 27: Deal values increasing since 2020 for nickel, cobalt, and copper projects
- Figure 28: Deal volumes increased in 2022 for lithium and rare earth elements
- Figure 29: Social media posts on energy transition and mineral trends
- Figure 30: Tesla dominates social media posts about critical minerals and energy transition
- Figure 31: Energy transition-related mentions have been rising since 2018
- Figure 32: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard
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