Autonomous Vehicles - Strategic Intelligence
Description
Autonomous Vehicles - Strategic Intelligence
Summary
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be a major economic driving force, with potential for new business models in ride-hailing, robotaxis, freight logistics, and more. China and the US are leading AV the tech race, with global leadership in the automotive industry at stake. Development costs for AV technology are high, but major players like Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia are continuing to invest, with global sales forecast to surpass 500,000 units by 2030. Incidents involving AVs,as seen with GM's Cruise, can be costly for the company and a setback the AV industry as a whole.
Autonomous vehicles will be a major economic driving force
Self-driving vehicles are already available in a limited capacity, but the potential to expand throughout all forms of future mobility is what makes autonomous vehicles (AVs) a key battleground for car manufacturers, mobility services, and tech companies.
Level 4 and 5 AVs will unlock new business models for ride-hailing, robotaxis, freight logistics, mobile retail, and services brought directly to the consumer.
AVs will also be one of the biggest tech races between economic superpowers, with China and the US leading the way. The first to secure a mature AV infrastructure would gain a huge competitive advantage, with global leadership in the automotive industry at stake.
Develop costs are high but the reward may be worth it
Autonomous vehicle technology is still in its commercial infancy, and initial estimates for robotaxis launches have been delayed year after year. Development costs can spiral quickly, while commercial returns are still some time into the future. This has led to ventures from the likes of Ford and Volkswagen being wound down. However, with continued investments from several major players such as Alphabet (Waymo), Amazon (Zoox), and Nvidia, GlobalData forecasts global sales of autonomous vehicles to surpass 500,000 units by 2030.
Setbacks are costly
Cruise, a General Motors (GM) autonomous subsidiary, was one of the leaders in our previous AV report, partly thanks to the sheer volume of autonomous driving data it has gathered in comparison to rivals. However, in October 2023, a Cruise driverless vehicle was involved in an accident with a pedestrian which led to a $1.5 million fine, a suspension of its self-driving permit in California, and the dismissal of nine company executives. In December 2024, it was announced that GM would no longer fund Cruise’s robotaxi development as it instead pivoted to autonomous systems for its personal vehicles. The incident demonstrated how precarious the progress towards Level 4 and 5 autonomy will be.
Leaders and challengers
Hardware:
Leaders: AMD, Huawei, Nvidia, Pony.ai, Qualcomm, Tesla.
Challengers: AutoX, Horizon, Zoox (Amazon).
Software:
Leaders: Apollo (Baidu), DiDi, Intel, Nvidia, Waymo, WeRide.
Challengers: Tesla, Wayve, Zoox (Amazon).
Services:
Leaders: Baidu, DiDi, Grab, Lyft, Uber.
Challengers: Alibaba, Amazon, Tesla.
Scope
Summary
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will be a major economic driving force, with potential for new business models in ride-hailing, robotaxis, freight logistics, and more. China and the US are leading AV the tech race, with global leadership in the automotive industry at stake. Development costs for AV technology are high, but major players like Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia are continuing to invest, with global sales forecast to surpass 500,000 units by 2030. Incidents involving AVs,as seen with GM's Cruise, can be costly for the company and a setback the AV industry as a whole.
Autonomous vehicles will be a major economic driving force
Self-driving vehicles are already available in a limited capacity, but the potential to expand throughout all forms of future mobility is what makes autonomous vehicles (AVs) a key battleground for car manufacturers, mobility services, and tech companies.
Level 4 and 5 AVs will unlock new business models for ride-hailing, robotaxis, freight logistics, mobile retail, and services brought directly to the consumer.
AVs will also be one of the biggest tech races between economic superpowers, with China and the US leading the way. The first to secure a mature AV infrastructure would gain a huge competitive advantage, with global leadership in the automotive industry at stake.
Develop costs are high but the reward may be worth it
Autonomous vehicle technology is still in its commercial infancy, and initial estimates for robotaxis launches have been delayed year after year. Development costs can spiral quickly, while commercial returns are still some time into the future. This has led to ventures from the likes of Ford and Volkswagen being wound down. However, with continued investments from several major players such as Alphabet (Waymo), Amazon (Zoox), and Nvidia, GlobalData forecasts global sales of autonomous vehicles to surpass 500,000 units by 2030.
Setbacks are costly
Cruise, a General Motors (GM) autonomous subsidiary, was one of the leaders in our previous AV report, partly thanks to the sheer volume of autonomous driving data it has gathered in comparison to rivals. However, in October 2023, a Cruise driverless vehicle was involved in an accident with a pedestrian which led to a $1.5 million fine, a suspension of its self-driving permit in California, and the dismissal of nine company executives. In December 2024, it was announced that GM would no longer fund Cruise’s robotaxi development as it instead pivoted to autonomous systems for its personal vehicles. The incident demonstrated how precarious the progress towards Level 4 and 5 autonomy will be.
Leaders and challengers
Hardware:
Leaders: AMD, Huawei, Nvidia, Pony.ai, Qualcomm, Tesla.
Challengers: AutoX, Horizon, Zoox (Amazon).
Software:
Leaders: Apollo (Baidu), DiDi, Intel, Nvidia, Waymo, WeRide.
Challengers: Tesla, Wayve, Zoox (Amazon).
Services:
Leaders: Baidu, DiDi, Grab, Lyft, Uber.
Challengers: Alibaba, Amazon, Tesla.
Scope
- This report provides an overview of the Autonomous Vehicles theme. The detailed value chain comprises three layers: Hardware, Software, Services. Leading and challenging vendors are identified across these segments.
- It identifies automotive challenges, such as technology challenges (ADAS, vision and sensor systems, infrastructure) , public acceptance, commercial sustainability, local and municipal transport policy and social justice and equity on the automotive industry, addressing these challenges.
- Several case studies are included to analyze the multiple ways companies have responded to the impact of this theme’s growth and what they are doing to grow with this theme.
- This report will help you to understand Autonomous Vehicles and its impact on the automotive sector.
- Benchmark your company against your competitors and assess how companies are utilizing Autonomous Vehicles to drive revenues.
- Identify attractive investment targets by understanding which companies are most advanced in the themes that will determine future success in the autonomous vehicles theme.
- Understand key industry challenges and where Autonomous Vehicles use cases are most useful.
- Develop and design your corporate strategies through an in-house expert analysis of Autonomous Vehicles by understanding the primary ways in which this theme is impacting the industry.
- Position yourself for future success by investing in the right Autonomous Vehicle companies.
Table of Contents
91 Pages
- Executive Summary
- Players
- Technology Briefing
- History of autonomous driving
- Level 4 and beyond
- Sensor suite
- Trends
- Technology trends
- Macroeconomic trends
- Regulatory trends
- Industry Analysis
- Market size and growth forecasts
- Global AV outlook
- Regional AV forecast
- AV level evolution for passenger cars
- Industry drivers
- Safety at the heart of autonomous vehicle design
- A geopolitical race to secure the next economic driving force
- An ascendant China
- US competitors and NHTSA influence
- National security issues
- Tesla’s autonomous pivot
- Challenges
- Technology challenges
- Other challenges
- Use cases
- AKEEYO Introduces AI-Powered Driving Assistant
- Helm.ai introduces multi-sensor generative AI transforming autonomous driving
- Horizon Robotics launches full-stack autonomous driving solution
- Luminar develops software for automakers
- Hyundai to supply BEVs to Waymo’s self-driving fleet
- Timeline
- Signals
- M&A trends
- Venture financing trends
- Patent trends
- Company filing trends
- Hiring trends
- Value Chain
- Hardware
- Semiconductors and processors
- Specialist autonomous modules
- Vehicles
- Software
- Autonomous driving systems
- Human machine interface
- In-car services
- Services
- Consumer shared services
- Commercial autonomous
- Companies
- Public companies
- Private companies
- Startups
- Sector Scorecards
- Future mobility sector scorecard
- Who’s who
- Thematic screen
- Valuation screen
- Risk screen
- Glossary
- Further Reading
- GlobalData reports
- Our Thematic Research Methodology
- About GlobalData
- Contact Us
- List of Tables
- Table 1: Technology trends
- Table 2: Macroeconomic trends
- Table 3: Regulatory trends
- Table 4: M&A trends
- Table 5: Key venture financing deals associated with the autonomous vehicles theme in the last three years
- Table 6: Public companies
- Table 7: Private companies
- Table 8 Startups:
- Table 9: Glossary
- Table 10: GlobalData reports
- List of Figures
- Figure 1: Who are the leading players in the autonomous vehicles theme, and where do they sit in the value chain?
- Figure 2: The five levels of autonomy for self-driving cars
- Figure 3: Typical suite of sensors required for self-driving cars
- Figure 4: Global sales forecast for Level 4+ shared autonomous vehicles
- Figure 5: Regional sales forecast for Level 4+ shared autonomous vehicles
- Figure 6: L0-5 global sales forecast
- Figure 7: Autonomous Vehicle Manufacturers: Miles Driven in California (2021-2023)
- Figure 8: The model aims to enhance the development and validation of autonomous vehicle systems by synthesizing realistic sensor and perception data across multiple modalities and perspectives
- Figure 9: The Sentinel suite from Luminar enables advanced safety and autonomous functionalities in vehicles
- Figure 10: Hyundai Motor Company has announced it has entered into a multi-year strategic partnership with Waymo to build a fleet of self-driving taxis for operation in the US
- Figure 11: The autonomous vehicle story
- Figure 12: AVs-related venture financing deal value peaked in 2021
- Figure 13: Major investors in European autonomous vehicle companies
- Figure 14: Major investors in China’s autonomous vehicle companies
- Figure 15: Major investors in American autonomous vehicle companies
- Figure 16: AV-related patent publications peaked in 2021
- Figure 17: Toyota, Ford, and Alphabet are the top AV-related patent assignees
- Figure 18: AV mentions in company filings in the automotive sector have decelerated since 2021
- Figure 19: AV-related active job listings in the automotive sector peaked in 2022
- Figure 20: AV-related active jobs are dominated by automotive suppliers, with Forvia SE in the lead, followed by Geely Holding Group in second
- Figure 21: The autonomous vehicle value chain
- Figure 22: The autonomous vehicle value chain: hardware
- Figure 23: The autonomous vehicle value chain: software
- Figure 24: The autonomous vehicle value chain: services
- Figure 25: Who does what in the future mobility space?
- Figure 26: Thematic screen
- Figure 27: Valuation screen
- Figure 28: Risk screen
- Figure 29: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard
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