Biofuels

Global Biofuels Market to Reach US$208.9 Billion by 2030

The global market for Biofuels estimated at US$185.7 Billion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$208.9 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.0% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Ethanol, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 1.3% CAGR and reach US$86.5 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Renewable Diesel segment is estimated at 2.9% CAGR over the analysis period.

The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$49.0 Billion While China is Forecast to Grow at 2.1% CAGR

The Biofuels market in the U.S. is estimated at US$49.0 Billion in the year 2024. China, the world`s second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$34.1 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 2.1% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.9% and 1.8% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 1.7% CAGR.

Biofuels (Bioethanol and Biodiesel) - Key Trends and Drivers Summarized

Biofuels, particularly bioethanol and biodiesel, have emerged as pivotal components in national strategies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and transitioning towards net-zero targets, especially in sectors that are challenging to decarbonize such as aviation. Over the years, biofuels have evolved through three generations, beginning with first-generation biofuels derived from food crops like corn, soy, and palm oil. These initial biofuels, while innovative, faced significant environmental and ethical challenges, including deforestation, biodiversity loss, and competition with food crops. Second-generation biofuels, which utilize non-food biomass such as grasses and organic waste, offered a more sustainable alternative but still encountered issues related to scalability and efficiency. The third generation, focusing on algae, promised high yield potential and minimal land use but has struggled with economic viability and production scalability despite substantial investments.

The advancement and adoption of biofuels have been driven by substantial global funding and government support, doubling over the past decade. Initiatives like the U.S. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge, which pledged $4.3 billion to develop clean biofuels, illustrate the significant financial backing aimed at overcoming the technological and economic barriers. However, the production of biofuels is not without its environmental impacts. Issues such as deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and increased greenhouse gas emissions due to land use changes have raised concerns about the true sustainability of biofuels. For example, the cultivation of corn and soy for ethanol in the U.S. has been linked to degraded water quality and higher emissions, complicating the narrative of biofuels as a green alternative. Despite these challenges, advancements in biofuel conversion technologies, such as enzymatic hydrolysis and gasification, are enhancing production efficiency and yield, making biofuels more environmentally viable.

Several factors are propelling the growth of the biofuel market. The development of advanced biofuels, particularly second and third-generation options, is expanding the range of sustainable feedstocks. The aviation and maritime sectors are increasingly adopting biofuels to meet regulatory requirements and reduce emissions, highlighting the role of biofuels in hard-to-electrify industries. The rise of flexible fuel vehicles (FFVs) that can run on varying blends of biofuels and gasoline is also driving demand. Additionally, increased environmental awareness and consumer preference for renewable energy sources are pushing the adoption of biofuels. Government mandates, international climate agreements, and initiatives like the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge further boost production and usage. The volatility of fossil fuel prices, emerging biofuel markets in developing countries, and growing investments in biofuel infrastructure are facilitating easier access and wider adoption. Innovations in genetic engineering, waste-to-fuel technologies, and microbial fermentation processes are enhancing the productivity, resilience, and sustainability of biofuel production, underscoring the dynamic and evolving nature of the biofuel industry.

SCOPE OF STUDY:

The report analyzes the Biofuels market in terms of units by the following Segments, and Geographic Regions/Countries:

Segments:
Fuel Type (Ethanol, Renewable Diesel, Biodiesel, Other Fuel Types); Application (Transportation Application, Heating Application, Aviation Application, Other Applications)

Geographic Regions/Countries:
World; United States; Canada; Japan; China; Europe (France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom; and Rest of Europe); Asia-Pacific; Rest of World.

Select Competitors (Total 122 Featured) -

• Aemetis, Inc.
• BlueFire Renewables, Inc.
• Copersucar S.A.
• Green Plains, Inc.
• Renewable Energy Group, Inc.
• Royal DSM NV
• Western Dubuque Biodiesel, LLC

TARIFF IMPACT FACTOR

Our new release incorporates impact of tariffs on geographical markets as we predict a shift in competitiveness of companies based on HQ country, manufacturing base, exports and imports (finished goods and OEM). This intricate and multifaceted market reality will impact competitors by artificially increasing the COGS, reducing profitability, reconfiguring supply chains, amongst other micro and macro market dynamics.

We are diligently following expert opinions of leading Chief Economists (14,949), Think Tanks (62), Trade & Industry bodies (171) worldwide, as they assess impact and address new market realities for their ecosystems. Experts and economists from every major country are tracked for their opinions on tariffs and how they will impact their countries.

We expect this chaos to play out over the next 2-3 months and a new world order is established with more clarity. We are tracking these developments on a real time basis.

As we release this report, U.S. Trade Representatives are pushing their counterparts in 183 countries for an early closure to bilateral tariff negotiations. Most of the major trading partners also have initiated trade agreements with other key trading nations, outside of those in the works with the United States. We are tracking such secondary fallouts as supply chains shift.

To our valued clients, we say, we have your back. We will present a simplified market reassessment by incorporating these changes!

APRIL 2025: NEGOTIATION PHASE

Our April release addresses the impact of tariffs on the overall global market and presents market adjustments by geography. Our trajectories are based on historic data and evolving market impacting factors.

JULY 2025 FINAL TARIFF RESET

Complimentary Update: Our clients will also receive a complimentary update in July after a final reset is announced between nations. The final updated version incorporates clearly defined Tariff Impact Analyses.

Reciprocal and Bilateral Trade & Tariff Impact Analyses:

USA
CHINA
MEXICO
CANADA
EU
JAPAN
INDIA
176 OTHER COUNTRIES.

Leading Economists - Our knowledge base tracks 14,949 economists including a select group of most influential Chief Economists of nations, think tanks, trade and industry bodies, big enterprises, and domain experts who are sharing views on the fallout of this unprecedented paradigm shift in the global econometric landscape. Most of our 16,491+ reports have incorporated this two-stage release schedule based on milestones.

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