The Mobile services in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2014–2019

The Mobile services in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2014–2019

Mobile service revenue in Europe will decline from EUR161 billion in 2014 to EUR143 billion in 2019, at a CAGR of –2.3%. This report provides a 5-year forecast of 64 mobile KPIs in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe, and explores some of the trends that will contribute to the decline in service revenue.


About this report
Executive summary
Mobile revenue is declining in Western Europe as operators compete for customers, and 4G service take-up will not prevent this
Mobile revenue will decline in most countries in Central and Eastern Europe because of OTT substitution and mobile termination rate cuts
Revenue and connection trends in Europe
Mobile handset service revenue and ARPU will decline in Europe between 2014 and 2019
Mobile subscriber numbers in Europe will be flat because multiple-SIM ownership is declining but the population is increasing
Handset ASPU will decline in Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe, despite increased usage of mobile data
Western Europe
Summary of mobile market KPIs for Western Europe
Population penetration of handset and mobile broadband SIMs is peaking in many Western European markets
Most mobile connections in Western Europe will be 4G by 2018
Users in Western Europe will continue to migrate to mobile next-generation networks
Smartphone and LTE take-up will be key factors in preventing further decline in mobile handset ARPU in Western Europe
The number of mobile broadband connections in Western Europe will increase between 2014 and 2019, driven by connected tablets
Central and Eastern Europe
Summary of mobile market KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe
Mobile service revenue will decline in five of the six Central and Eastern European countries featured in this report – Turkey is the exception
4G will become the main mobile technology by 2019 in three of the six countries in Central and Eastern Europe
Take-up of LTE in Central and Eastern Europe will be slow in 2014–2015, but will gain momentum to account for 37% of connections in 2019
Smartphones will account for 80% of handsets in Central and Eastern Europe in 2019, and 37% of connections will be 4G
Mobile broadband connections will peak in Central and Eastern Europe in 2016 as tethering becomes a viable option
About the authors and Analysys Mason
List of figures
Figure 1: Mobile service revenue (excluding M2M) and ARPU, Western Europe , 2014–2019
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue (excluding M2M) and revenue change by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019
Figure 3: Mobile handset service revenue and ARPU, by region, 2014–2019
Figure 4: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe , 2014–2019
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2019
Figure 6: Mobile ASPU by type, Western Europe, 2014–2019
Figure 7: Mobile ASPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2019
Figure 8: KPIs for Western Europe, 2014 and 2019
Figure 9: Mobile service revenue (excluding M2M) and revenue change by country, Western Europe, 2014 and 2019
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share, Western Europe, 2009–2019
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation by country, Western Europe, 20191
Figure 12: Smartphone and 4G penetration of mobile handset connections, Western Europe, 2014 and 2019
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections and 4G penetration, Western Europe, 2014–2019
Figure 14: KPIs for Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue by country (excluding M2M), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019
Figure 16: Mobile connections by technology generation by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 20191
Figure 17: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2009–2019
Figure 18: Smartphone and 4G penetration of mobile handset connections, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014 and 2019
Figure 19: Mobile broadband connections and 4G penetration, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014–2019

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