Publisher: Oxford Economics Published: Last 3 Years-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Tonga
We revised our FY2025 (1st July 2025 - 30th June 2026) GDP forecast for Tonga up by 0.1ppt to 2.57% growth, considering significant national accounts revisions pointing towards a stronger-than-expected rebound after Covid and the 2022 volcanic eruption and tsunami. While US tariffs will have a limit ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Venezuela
We have slashed our GDP growth forecasts for Venezuela by 8.5ppts to a 5% y/y contraction in 2025 and by 7.2ppts to a 3.3% y/y decline in 2026. The downgrades reflect the US's decision to end permission for foreign energy firms to operate in the country by May 27 and charge a 25% "secondary ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Oman
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Oman by 0.1ppt to 2.1% for this year and by 0.2ppts to 2.2% for 2026 to account for the adverse effect of US tariffs announced in April on global demand. The oil price drop triggered by the faster unwinding of oil supply cuts by OPEC+ and energy demand conc ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Canada
We've raised our GDP growth forecasts by 0.2ppts to 0.9% in 2025 and by 0.5ppts to 0.3% in 2026. The pause in Canada's counter-tariffs, relaxed US tariffs on auto parts imports, and new fiscal stimulus will soften the downturn from the trade war, but likely won’t prevent a recession. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Eurozone
We've slightly adjusted our Eurozone forecasts and now project GDP will grow by 0.9% in both 2025 and 2026. Our assumptions about US-EU tariffs have not changed since last month and recent data continue to signal a slow but steady expansion. The balance of risks tilts to the downside as the assu ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Spain
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Spain by 0.2ppts to 2.5% on the back of slightly weaker-than-expected Q1 figures and backward revisions to national accounts. Nevertheless, momentum remains solid despite the adverse global environment. Spain stands to be more insulated from the trade w ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico
Our 2025 GDP forecast for Mexico remains at near-zero growth, slightly below the latest consensus estimate of 0.1% growth. The stronger-than-expected end to Q1 prevented the country from falling into a technical recession, but risks to activity in Q2 and Q3 remain tilted to the downside. We expect M ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
We expect the Danish economy will grow by 1.9% in 2025. But quarterly growth will be flat as we assume that the US government will impose a 25% tariff on its imports of pharmaceuticals from Denmark in late Q2. Exceptional business uncertainty will also weigh on investment planning more than we expec ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Lao PDR
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Laos by 0.3ppts to 3.5%. External debt levels relative to GDP are now falling thanks to prudent action by the Laotian government. Even so, sizeable debt repayments averaging US$1.3bn a year until 2027 and reliance on debt forgiveness by China pose major ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Iceland
We forecast Iceland's economy to expand by 1.5% this year and 1.1% next. Extreme trade policy uncertainty and US tariffs will impact external demand and investment. We expect price pressures to continue giving way gradually, with inflation averaging 3.6% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
Our GDP growth forecast for 2025-2026 remains unchanged, with growth expected at 2.6%. Despite rising global outlook concerns, Peru’s growth prospects remain the strongest in the region, supported by flexible financial conditions, rising real wages, and a stout labor market. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We left our near-term forecasts largely unchanged this month at 0% GDP growth for this year and 0.9% for 2026, with inflation at 2.2% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. This stability reflects that GDP grew by the expected 0.2% q/q in Q1, that our tariff assumptions haven't changed, and that the new Germ ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Pakistan
We have lifted our calendar year 2025 growth forecast for Pakistan by 0.1ppts to 1.1%. This reflects a strong carryover from Q4 2024 that masks the negative impact of the 10% tariff hike on exports to the US. The drag on growth is more visible in our 2026 forecast, which we have lowered by 0.9ppts t ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Egypt
While Egypt faces exposure to US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, the direct trade impact appears limited. US tariffs remain at 10%, unchanged since the April 2 'Liberation Day' announcement. With just 4.6% of Egypt’s exports going to the US, the immediate economic effect is negligi ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Eurozone
Germany's industrial production rebounded strongly in March, making quarterly growth positive for the first time in two years. The fact that growth was broad-based is good news. But as this largely reflects the front-loading of purchases in the US ahead of the tariffs, with particularly strong r ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - Emerging Markets
Our proprietary Asia chip export index (CEI) suggests the global chip cycle remains on an uptrend. This suggests an optimistic outlook for Asia electronics exports, at least in the near term. The continued demand for AI technology appears to have prolonged the traditional semiconductor cycle, which ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - United Kingdom
The Monetary Policy Committee narrowly voted to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25% at its meeting this week. The MPC's tone was more hawkish than markets anticipated, but the message was in line with our forecast for two more 25bp cuts in H2 2025. Still, we wouldn't rule out a dovish pivot late ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Perhaps the most notable change in our May baseline forecast will be the downward revision to our forecast for inflation, reflecting a confluence of factors, including lower global energy prices and the recently announced exemptions to tariffs. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Luxembourg
Growth momentum in Luxembourg was strong in Q4 last year, driven by consumption and net trade. The economy expanded by 1% over the year following data revisions. However, a more challenging growth outlook after US liberation day prompted us to revise annual GDP growth to 1.8% for 2025, which is 0.4p ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - United States
We've slightly increased our GDP growth forecasts for the US by 0.1ppt to 1.3% in 2025 and to 1.7% in 2026. The economy will still grow noticeably below its potential growth rate as it digests tariffs, supply-chain stress, tighter financial market conditions, and surging policy uncertainty. Rece ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Cayman Islands
We revised our short-term GDP growth forecast to 1.5% in 2025 due to lower growth expectations in the US post-liberation day tariffs. Nonetheless, the medium-term outlook remains positive, as we believe this won't permanently affect growth. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ghana
Events over the past month prompted us to cut our 2025 real GDP growth forecast by 0.3 ppt to 4.3% while keeping our 2026 estimate steady at 4.7%. Despite Ghana’s limited direct trade exposure to the US, the broader global uncertainty is expected to mildly dampen domestic activity by curbing trade f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - South Africa
First-quarter industry data thus far paints a depressing picture: it indicates that the mining and manufacturing sectors have started 2025 on the back foot, following a disappointing end to 2024. A sharp decline in consumer confidence during the first quarter suggests a deterioration in the outlook ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
Global oil prices have come under renewed pressure following the recent decision by Opec+ to accelerate oil output increases in June. We think bearish conditions will persist and oil prices should recover gradually over the medium term. We maintain our view that Nigeria's overall real GDP growth ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We downgraded our outlook this round due to the "liberation day" tariff announcements and delayed our end-of-war assumption to the second half of this year. This year, we forecast GDP to grow by 3.6%, down 0.2% from our March baseline, and 2.9% next year, 0.8% lower. ... Read More
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