Publisher: Oxford Economics Published: Last Year-
Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
Benin’s economy has been on a strong growth trajectory, with our estimates suggesting growth reached 6.5% last year. Infrastructure investment, industrialisation, and agricultural development have sustained high growth since the start of the decade. Investor confidence is increasing, as evidenced by ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Despite Donald Trump's efforts, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive, with Russia so far rejecting the proposed 30-day partial ceasefire by making it conditional on sanctions relief. Even if achieved, this type of ceasefire would be largely symbolic. We therefore base our Ukrai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay down by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, while maintaining our estimate for next year at 2.3%, broadly in line with consensus. We expect domestic demand to strengthen, driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a n ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 1ppt to 3.3% to reflect our more optimistic outlooks on both oil production and non-oil sector growth. OPEC+'s announcement of an earlier-than-expected unwinding schedule of oil production cuts and the recent approval of Kuwait's de ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's economy gained 5.0% y/y in 2024, representing the strongest rebound since 2018. The services sector was the biggest contributor to 2024 growth (1.5ppts), followed by the manufacturing and construction sectors. We've maintained our 2025 GDP forecast of 3.8% y/y, but have revised d ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Chile down by 0.1ppt to 2.4% y/y, driven by a downward revision to investment amid the global uncertainty. However, we believe the impact of the international outlook will be more pronounced next year, prompting a larger reduction in our 2026 forecast ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
We forecast the Philippines' economy will expand by 6% y/y this year, following a 5.6% y/y increase in 2024, which is below the government's target of a 6%-6.5% GDP growth. Growth this year will be supported by more accommodative monetary policy and well-contained inflation. While the easing ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
We slightly revised our below-consensus growth forecast for Hong Kong down to 1.9%, following 2.5% export-driven growth last year. This revision reflects our assessment of the recent tenuous global trade environment. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
We've increased our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.2ppts to 2.0%, given evidence that the economy was still expanding above the long-term trend in Q1. In 2024, the economy grew by 4.1%, but this year, tight monetary policy and a more restrictive fiscal stance will gradually dampen grow ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - South Korea
South Korean industrial growth is forecast to grow 2% this year. The electronics and high-tech sector will be the principal driver of industrial growth, underscored by a strong export market for Korean electronics. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Comoros
We forecast the Comorian economy to grow by 4.1% in 2025, continuing its decent economic performance over the past few years. Short- to medium-term economic growth is anticipated to be primarily driven by real private consumption. We have raised our forecast for average real GDP growth between 2026 ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malaysia
Recent data suggest Malaysia's economy had a better start to 2025 after a soft end to 2024. We have upgraded our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4ppts to 4.1%, following a 5.1% expansion in 2024. But shifting base effects mask slightly stronger momentum over this year. Alongside growing inflationary r ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Malta
Based on the latest quarterly data, the Maltese economy entered a recession in H2 2024, contracting by 0.6% q/q in Q3 and by 0.7% q/q in Q4. Data revisions have significantly influenced this outcome and there may be more to come. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burundi
We forecast the economy to expand by 3.9% in 2025, driven by further expected gains in gold and coffee prices – both vital commodities to the domestic economy. Gold prices have already surged by 38.2% y/y in Q1, fuelled by heightened geopolitical tensions. Arabica coffee prices rose by 88.4% y/y ove ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Iraq to 1.2% to reflect the recalibration of our measurement scopes for Iraq's non-oil activities to better align with official data releases. Our upward revision was also driven by our better expectations for this year's oil production due t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar by 0.5ppts to 2.6% and continue to expect growth will pick up to 5% in 2026. The upgrade to our near-term outlook reflects better-than-expected growth at the end of 2024 and positive activity indicators since the start of this year. Meanwhile, bu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Libya's oil output reached a decade-high of 1.31 million bpd in December 2024. That said, international oil prices are projected to be relatively flat over the next three years, leaving the government with limited growth prospects for oil-related revenues. However, the country has attracted inte ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.1ppt to 2%. Positive momentum in activity continued in January, suggesting domestic demand was strong. However, heightened global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast Belgium's economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2026 as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Greece
A solid end of 2024 set the stage for the Greek economy to grow at a faster pace than the Eurozone average in 2025, as we project GDP will expand by 2.1%. Investments remain the main driver of growth, boosted by the Next Generation EU funds. Net exports dragged on the economy in 2024, but this shoul ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - China
Industrial growth in China surpassed expectations at the end of last year, but we expect it to peter out over the coming quarters. Strong momentum going into the year has led us to revise up our industrial value-added growth forecast to 4.0% in 2025, up from 3.6% in our Q4 2024 update. ... Read More
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Industry - Country Industry Forecasts - France
While the overall trend of industrial production has remained relatively flat since the initial recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect this year to see a broad decline in industrial output this year. GDP growth forecast has also been lowered to 0.5% for 2025 as global trade uncertainty weigh ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Israel
We haven't changed our Israel forecasts this round, despite the country's defence forces resuming their military operations against Hamas. That said, we view a further weakening of the second stage of the ceasefire, which could delay an end to the war by several months, as a heightened risk ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
We’ve become more optimistic that Lebanon's economy will return to expansion this year and have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 1.4%. The election of Joseph Aoun as the new president in January and the formation of a new government after nearly three years under an interim admi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
The Mozambican economy entered 2025 severely weakened: fiscal revenues have declined, inflation has increased, and investor confidence has dented in the wake of October's disputed general elections. The spate of violent protests and strikes caused hundreds of deaths and a sharp contraction in GD ... Read More
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