We've raised our calendar year GDP growth forecasts for Pakistan by 1.9ppts to 3.1% for 2025 and by 0.8ppts to 2% for 2026. Our upgrades reflect a mixture of source data revisions, stronger-than-anticipated growth in H1 2025, and improved optimism about reform progress supported by the ongoing I ...

We've nudged down our GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 0.8% in 2025, but still expect growth of 0.4% in 2026. GDP likely contracted in Q2 as exports and business investment pulled back, marking the start of a trade war induced downturn that will likely extend through 2025. ...

We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Ireland by 3ppts to 10.3% due to greater-than-expected resilience in Q2. The preliminary estimate showed the economy contracted by 1% q/q, while we had anticipated a large payback. Meanwhile, we've lowered our forecast for 2026 GDP to a 4.3% decl ...

Austria's economy grew by 0.1% q/q in Q2, according to a flash estimate. This was marginally higher than our expectation of no expansion but does not change our outlook for this year, so we continue to project a 0.1% GDP increase in 2025. The details showed that private consumption supported gro ...

Côte d’Ivoire’s economic momentum remains strong and, as such, we forecast real GDP growth of 5.9% this year. Our outlook is based on the ongoing expansion of the mining sector – driven by rising gold, oil, and gas production – coupled with robust growth in the services sector. Our view on the ...

Recent data broadly supports our baseline. GDP contracted by the expected 0.1% q/q in Q2, and the latest data points to continued softness in Q3 as industrial weakness offsets consumer resilience. Revisions to past data mean that we expect 0.3% growth this year, up by 0.1ppt from last month, but are ...

We've lowered our GDP growth forecasts for India by 0.1ppt to 6.5% for 2025 and 6.6% for 2026. The US baseline tariff on Indian imports has increased to 25% from 10% previously, and the domestic demand outlook remains subdued. ...

We've upgraded our forecast for 2025 GDP growth in France by 0.1ppt to 0.6% due to better-than-expected Q2 GDP. In 2026, we still expect GDP growth will increase only marginally to 0.7% as domestic uncertainty will continue to discourage economic activity. ...

The ZEW survey followed the Sentix lower in August. At face value, this suggests the US-EU trade deal disappointed investors and financial market analysts. Our reading of the deal was less negative than implied by these surveys and the recent rebound in European stock indices from their early August ...

We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.6ppts to 0.7% but lowered our 2026 forecast by 1.1ppts to 0.8%. A US tariff on imports of EU pharmaceuticals looks set to be imposed at 15%, although the exact magnitude and timing is contingent on the outcome of the US national security i ...

The run of data over the past month has come in broadly in line with our expectations. Household spending growth has been a little more resilient to uncertainty and relatively low consumer confidence. But the nascent slackening in the labour market will test momentum over H2. Inflation continues to ...

We've raised our estimate of Greece's fiscal balance this year to a 3.1% of GDP surplus due to an exceptional 4.2% of GDP fiscal surplus in Q1 and a strong streak of cash inflows in Q2. We continue to forecast GDP will grow by 2.1% this year, increasing to 2.6% in 2026. ...

We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Finland largely unchanged at 0.6% this year and 0.9% for 2026, as the Q2 flash estimate was in line with our expectations. Firmer domestic demand should be the main growth driver, whereas the ongoing fiscal consolidation will be the main drag. Key downside ri ...

We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico by 0.4ppts to 0.6%, above the latest consensus estimate of a 0.3% expansion, due to surprisingly strong Q2 GDP. However, we've nudged our 2026 forecast down by 0.2ppts to 1.6% growth, which is still above the consensus of 1.4%. The externa ...

On the face of it, the latest monthly data appeared to back the Monetary Policy Committee's decision to switch its focus away from fears about labour market fragility and back onto inflation. But the importance of the public sector in supporting employment and severe pressure on low-paying secto ...

The mixed inflation data for July will make for uncomfortable reading at the Federal Reserve, though the prospects for a September rate cut depends more on the incoming labor market data. For now, we are sticking with our call that the Fed remains on hold until December, but a weak August jobs repor ...

Our updated scorecard reveals recent US tariff actions make EM-Asia clearly the most vulnerable region. China, Brazil, Vietnam, and Mexico are the four emerging markets most at risk. ...

We lifted our GDP growth forecast for Spain to 2.7% this year and 2% in 2026, amid signs of continued strong momentum in activity. Spain will repeat this year as the fastest-growing major economy in the Eurozone, as the economy is more insulated from the trade war with the US than most of its neighb ...

It was a quiet month on the data front, with no new developments significantly affecting Egypt's short- to medium-term economic outlook. In addition, Egypt counts itself among the 29 African countries subjected to the 10% baseline US tariff surge, having escaped the latest round of US tariffs. A ...

We raised our GDP growth forecasts for Lebanon by 0.4ppts to 1.8% for 2025 and by 0.7ppts to 4.3% for 2026, both modestly above the upgraded consensus. The formation of a government earlier this year renewed the impetus for reform, leading to the recent passage of a bank restructuring law. We think ...

We've raised our Eurozone GDP growth outlook for this year by 0.1ppt to 1.2% to reflect stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP. We expect GDP growth will slow to 0.8% in 2026 due to poor external conditions and high uncertainty despite the recent EU-US trade agreement. ...

We've kept our GDP growth forecasts for Portugal unchanged at 1.8% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026. GDP rose 0.6% q/q in Q2, in line with our expectation and confirmed the economy resumed solid growth after contracting in Q1. We think growth will be boosted in H2 by some income tax cuts and an extra ...

We raised our US GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.1ppt to 1.7%, but lowered it by the same magnitude to 2% for 2026 because our August baseline incorporated refinements to the assumptions about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Changes to our tariff assumptions didn't significantly alter our near ...

Our Brent and WTI benchmark oil price forecasts are unchanged for this month. While it has been an eventful news month in oil markets, we see rising OPEC+ output offsetting geopolitical risks to supply, which has shifted from the Middle East to Russia. We see Brent crude prices at $65.23 at the end ...

South Africa's real GDP growth rate for 2025 is maintained at 0.8% in this forecast round, but next year's growth rate is lowered marginally to 1.3% from 1.4% previously. Although the 30% tariff on South African goods entering the US remains broadly unchanged from the Liberation Day announce ...