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RAN Automation: The Transition from AI-Powered SON to Non-RT RIC and SMO has commenced

Publisher Teral Research
Published Oct 31, 2025
Length 33 Pages
SKU # TERA20535762

Description

Defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) at the beginning of this century, SON (self-organizing network) algorithms configure and optimize mobile networks automatically without human interaction. As networks handle vast amounts of traffic and become more and more complex through the addition of several generations, SON algorithms are blended with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. This report tracks the centralized SON (C-SON) software and services revenue market, provides size, forecast and vendor market shares, and analyzes the evolution of C-SON modules and use cases becoming apps in the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) needed in open RAN, open virtual RAN architectures, and expanding to support any types of RAN. This report also tracks the O-RAN defined service management and orchestration (SMO) market and provides a breakdown between non-Real Time RIC rApps and near-Real Time RIC xApps.

Table of Contents

33 Pages
©Copyright 2025 TĖRAL RESEARCH  www.teralresearch.com
The transition from AI-powered C-SON to Non-RT RIC
ABSTRACT
KEY TAKEAWAYS
AS THE SHIFT TO NON-RT RIC AND SMO KICKS OFF, AI-POWERED SON SALES PEAKED IN 2024
GLOBAL SON SOFTWARE AND SERVICES REVENUE PEAKED IN 2024 AND ACCOUNTED FOR 91% OF TOTAL RAN AUTOMATION SALES
Our estimates indicate Nokia continues to lead C-SON sales market shares
At this point, every C-SON vendor is juggling between servicing existing customers and migrating those customers ready to adopt non-RT RIC and SMO
We forecast the global C-SON market to start its decline in 2025
Global C-SON sales will follow a long tail pattern
C-SON sales have never grown proportionally to the number of mobile networks
Because with or without C-SON, LTE networks are running fine, so are 5G NSA ones
Since its debut in 2010, C-SON has always been a tough sell
WITH AT&T BACK IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT, THE NON-RT RIC, ITS RAPPS AND THE SMO ARE POISED FOR STRONG GROWTH
SINCE 2017, AT&T HAS BEEN DRIVING THE ONAP AND OPEN RAN EFFORTS
BUT NTT DOCOMO STOLE THE RIC SHOW IN 2023
FUELED BY GEOPOLITICS, OPEN RAN ACCELERATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIC AND THE SMO
In 2021, we developed a RIC and SMO forecast model based on the O-RAN Alliance framework
In August 2023, the O-RAN Alliance released a vision of the NIC, the evolution of the RIC
AS A RESULT, THE SMO MARKET, INCLUDING NON-RT RIC AND RAPPS, PASSED THE $100M BAR IN 2024
Ericsson leads the Non-RT RIC and SMO market…
…followed by Samsung
Propelled by Verizon, Qualcomm ranks third
As we predicted three years ago, RIC is deployed in any RAN
Like its C-SON predecessor, RIC uses AI and ML, and needs to send back instructions to the RAN
RIC market developments follow the same pattern as C-SON’s
OUR MODEL PRODUCED A 51% NON-RT RIC MARKET 5-YEAR CAGR
In 2028, we expect 88% of C-SON sales and services to be in the form of a non-RT RIC rApps
The xApp will have to wait because the training requires a vast amount of RAN scenarios that can be generated to reproduce real events
The Near-Real Time RIC market is unleashing D-SON use cases that until now were proprietary and controlled by the RAN vendors; they still are though!
CSPs have plenty of questions about the near-real time RIC
The App ecosystem is mushrooming
Network optimization rApps accounts for 67% of total
ALL THIS DRIVES THE SMO MARKET FOR ANY RAN
The SMO market is poised for a rapid ramp up, and will be the largest opportunity as it gradually replaces the OSS
Asia Pacific will be the largest SMO market throughout the forecast period

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