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Open vRAN/RAN (Edition 2)

Publisher Teral Research
Published Sep 12, 2025
Length 52 Pages
SKU # TERA20401901

Description

The Open RAN/vRAN grew 52% YoY in 1H25

As we have been saying since June 2021, 2025 is the trigger year, ready for takeoff?

While the open vRAN renaissance begins, the sustainability of the ecosystem is under pressure

Open vRAN is a strong candidate for neutral host, indoor use case in general, and as a DAS upgrade/replacement in particular

Table of Contents

52 Pages
KEY TAKEAWAYS: 1H25 IS UP YOY AND THE FUTURE IS LOOKING UP!
THE OPEN RAN/VRAN GREW 52% YOY IN 1H25
AS A RESULT, WE CONFIDENTLY MAINTAIN OUR ASSESMENT THAT THE 2-YEAR LONG LULL IS OVER
AT&T ALONE DROVE THE BULK OF THE GROWTH, RAKUTEN MOBILE AND TELUS ADDED SOME FUEL TO IT
On the small footprint deployment side, 1&1, Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone were the key contributors
All this led to a major vendor leadership board shake up, Ericsson moved to #1 out of nowhere, distantly followed by NEC, Samsung and 1Finity
Ericsson, NEC and Samsung are both top RU and CU/DU suppliers
NTT DOCOMO REMAINS THE WOLRD’S LARGEST OPEN RAN BROWNFIELD FOOTPRINT
TRIALS, TESTING AND CERTIFICATION EFFORTS ARE CHUGGING ALONG WHILE THE RFP/RFI SURGE IN 2024 HAS ABATED IN 1H25
AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING SINCE JUNE 2021, 2025 IS THE TRIGGER YEAR, READY FOR TAKEOFF?
THIS YEAR, WE EXPECT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT BUMP FROM THE AT&T ROLLOUT, WHICH HAS NOT CHANGED OUR FORECAST UPDATED IN 1Q24
2025 WILL BE THE GLOBAL SWITCH YEAR
Long delays for Vodafone Spring 6 are not affecting our 2025 forecast
The open vRAN penetration of the global traditional RAN sales is expected to hit 30% in 2029, up from 4.5% in 2024 With AT&T in the driver’s seat and direct U.S. government funding, North America is becoming the world’s
largest open vRAN market
Among the countries ploughing money into open RAN, the U.S. is pushing for global dominance
Consequently, North America is poised to hit the 20% RAN sales penetration bar in 2025 and reach 63% by 2030
Openness, scalability and innovation remain the 3 chief drivers
We believe nearly all commercial open RAN networks will be running RAN functions on software
vRAN and open RAN are 2 different configurations
Boost Mobile and Rakuten Mobile brought cloud RAN to prime time
Finally, it’s worth noting that open RAN started as a NON-VIRTUAL architecture
WHILE THE OPEN VRAN RENAISSANCE BEGINS, THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE ECOSYSTEM IS UNDER PRESSURE
AS SOME OLD CHALLENGES REMAIN, THE NAYSAYERS STICK TO THEIR GUNS
IN THE MEANTIME, A VAST OPEN RAN ECOSYSTEM KEEPS DEVELOPING, CONSOLIDATING, RESTRUCTURING, AND RECAPITALIZING
The early greenfield open RAN adopters embraced the multi-vendor approach…
…which is now under attack by the brownfield adopters and actors of this renaissance
In this post 5G peak era, Tier 1 CSPs are locked in with abundant 5G footprints from Ericsson and Nokia
At this stage, large Tier 1 CSPs seem inclined to do what AT&T is doing and lean heavily on a single big supplier for their open vRAN deployments
Consequently, consolidation and restructuring are chugging along
From OREX to OREX SAI, open RAN pioneer docomo created a Rakuten Symphony clone
Kyocera is joining the open RAN bandwagon!
ALL OF THE ABOVE IS THE DIRECT CONSEQUENCE OF THE HUAWEI BAN
For most of the world, the mission to ban the Chinese vendors is accomplished…
…And international cooperation is at its best
This also drove the creation of a flurry of regional and national initiatives
At this point, the U.S. and Taiwan boast the world’s largest ecosystems
OPEN VRAN IS A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR NEUTRAL HOST, INDOOR USE CASES IN GENERAL, AND AS A DAS UPGRADE/REPLACEMENT IN PARTICULAR
NEUTRAL HOST COMPANIES ACROSS THE WORLD ARE LOOKING AT OPEN RAN AND OPEN VRAN AS A NEW ARCHITECTURE IN THEIR TOOL KIT
Case in point: Boldyn Networks and VMO2 installed an open RAN neutral host network in the U.K
1&1 and Rakuten Symphony did the same in Germany’s largest European stadium
CURRENT C-RAN-BASED DAS ARCHITECTURES OFFER PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR OPEN VRAN UPGRADES
In 2026, the indoor open vRAN/open DAS market will surpass indoor DAS
Private wireless networks remain an open vRAN niche for now but 90% of large enterprise installations are traditional RAN
However, as DAS replacement shifts to smaller venues, open vRAN will eventually penetrate the SME space at some point
Indoor 5G coverage is the vRAN driving force
LASTLY, OPEN RAN IS VITAL FOR THE INTEGRATION OF NON-TERRESTRIAL AND TERRESTRIAL NETWORKS

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