North America HVAC System Market Size and Forecast (2021 - 2031), Regional Share, Trend, and Growth Opportunity Analysis Report Coverage: By Type (Split System, Ductless System and Packaged System), Implementation (New Installation and Retrofit), Applicat

The North America HVAC System Market size was valued at US$ 41.08 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$ 63.40 billion by 2031; it is expected to register a CAGR of 6.49% during 2025–2031.

The North America HVAC system market is segmented into the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The region has experienced consistent growth, driven by increasing awareness of energy efficiency, indoor comfort, and technological innovation in HVAC solutions. According to the Better Business Bureau (BBB), the U.S. HVAC industry recorded steady revenue growth between 2018 and 2022, rising from US$ 90.3 billion in 2018 to US$ 93.5 billion in 2021, with revenues projected to reach US$ 118.9 billion by 2029. This upward trend highlights the expanding adoption of advanced and energy-efficient HVAC systems.

In the United States, government-backed initiatives such as the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit, the Residential Clean Energy Credit, and the Home Electrification and Appliances Rebate (HEAR) Program are accelerating the adoption of high-efficiency HVAC technologies, including heat pumps. These programs provide financial support through rebates, loans, and upfront cost reductions, enabling households—including low- and moderate-income groups—to lower energy expenses while contributing to environmental sustainability.

In Canada, programs like the Canada Greener Homes Loan (CGHL) have played a key role in encouraging energy-efficient retrofits and new HVAC installations. These initiatives promote the adoption of high-performance HVAC systems and sustainable building practices, aligning with national objectives for emissions reduction and energy conservation.

In Mexico, the government announced Plan Mexico in January 2025, which targets the construction of one million new homes over the next six years with a strong focus on energy-efficient construction technologies. This large-scale housing initiative is expected to boost demand for compliant and environmentally friendly HVAC systems, creating significant opportunities for manufacturers and suppliers.

Overall, supportive government policies, increasing construction activity, and growing consumer demand for sustainable and energy-efficient solutions continue to drive the expansion of the North America HVAC system market.

As urbanization accelerates and populations increasingly concentrate in major cities and metropolitan areas, demand for residential housing, commercial buildings, industrial facilities, and public infrastructure continues to rise. These developments depend on efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems to maintain indoor comfort, safety, and operational performance.

In Canada, urbanization remains a key growth driver. In 2021, approximately 73.7% of the population resided in large urban centers, up from 73.2% five years earlier. Census metropolitan areas with populations exceeding 100,000 accounted for the majority of the country’s population growth, recording a 5.2% increase between 2016 and 2021. This concentration of population in major cities has fueled demand for housing projects, commercial developments, healthcare facilities, and institutional buildings, all of which require reliable HVAC systems.

Mexico also demonstrates strong infrastructure momentum. As Canada’s third-largest trading partner, bilateral merchandise trade reached CAD 56 billion in 2024, while Canada continues to rank as the third-largest foreign investor in Mexico. The two countries’ Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for 2025–2028 aims to enhance cooperation in infrastructure development, investment, energy, and sustainability, supporting expanded construction activity and cross-border projects.

Overall, growing urban populations are driving increased construction and expansion of public and private facilities, leading to sustained demand for HVAC installations. Furthermore, rising infrastructure investment and international partnerships—particularly in mixed-use developments, manufacturing facilities, and commercial properties—are reinforcing long-term demand for energy-efficient HVAC solutions. As cities evolve and modernize, HVAC systems remain a critical element in creating safe, comfortable, and sustainable urban environments.

Daikin Industries Ltd, Johnson Controls Inc, Carrier Global Corp, Honeywell Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation, Bosch Thermotechnology Corp, Systemair Group, LG Electronics Inc, Emerson Electric Co, Trane Technologies, and Hitachi Ltd are among the key North America HVAC System Market players that are profiled in this market study.

The overall North America HVAC System Market size has been derived using both primary and secondary sources. Exhaustive secondary research has been conducted using internal and external sources to obtain qualitative and quantitative information related to the North America HVAC System Market size. The process also helps obtain an overview and forecast of the market with respect to all the market segments. Also, multiple primary interviews have been conducted with industry participants to validate the data and gain analytical insights. This process includes industry experts such as VPs, business development managers, market intelligence managers, and national sales managers, along with external consultants such as valuation experts, research analysts, and key opinion leaders, specializing in the EMEA North America HVAC System Market.

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