India Wheat & Products Market- Trend Analysis & Forecasts

India Wheat & Products Market Overview:

India’s wheat sector, valued at US$ ** billion in 2024, is anchored by annual production of 105–112 MMT, supported by major states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh. Per-capita wheat consumption has risen from 60.8 kg in 2015 to 67.5 kg in 2024, while organized flour mills now process over ** MMT annually, reflecting stronger demand for packaged atta and bakery ingredients. Wholesale prices climbed from INR 1,950/quintal in 2020 to INR 2,350/quintal in 2024, influenced by MSP procurement averaging 26–34 MMT each year. The overall shift toward value-added wheat products is evident as branded atta expanded to US$ ** billion in 2024.

Primary Areas/ Elements of Research & Analysis

The report provides comprehensive and valuable insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the India wheat & products market. Below are the variables considered and analyzed in the report:
• Supply-demand trends, market growth, and trade
• Market structure, conduct, and performance analysis
• Historical and forecasted market size (volume & value)
• Trade analysis (export & import), including key partners, quantities, values, and price trends
• Supply chain mapping, pricing, and regulatory framework
• Competitive landscape profiling of key players
• Factors influencing market performance, including sustainability trends

Market Growth Factors

Growth in the India wheat market is driven by rising incomes, with per-capita income reaching US$ 2,730 in 2024, and growing urban demand that pushed packaged atta penetration to **% compared with 22% in 2018. MSP increases from INR 1,925/quintal in 2020–21 to INR 2,275/quintal in 2024–25 continue to stabilize farmer incentives and output. The bakery and confectionery sector, growing at 9.4% CAGR, uses more than ** MMT of maida and semolina annually, while QSR expansion to 4,200 outlets has boosted demand for specialized flour types. Investments exceeding INR 8,000 crore in logistics and 1,600 new warehouses under infrastructure schemes further support supply chain efficiency.

Market Restraints & Challenges

The market faces challenges from weather shocks such as the 2022 heatwave that reduced yields by 15% in key states and cut national output by nearly 3 MMT, pushing prices beyond INR 2,800/quintal. Slower yield growth at 1.1% annually, compared with China’s 5.7 tonnes/ha productivity, limits competitiveness, while rising production costs of INR 1,750–1,900/quintal weigh on farmer margins. Supply chain inefficiencies, including 5–7% post-harvest losses and heavy reliance on traditional mandis for 20–25% of grain movement, add to operating pressures. Export bans imposed in 2022 and 2023 reduced outbound volumes from 7.2 MMT to under 0.4 MMT, affecting global positioning.

Market Segmentation

Households consume nearly ** MMT of wheat annually, forming **% of total demand, while industrial users account for ** MMT through bakery, biscuit and noodle manufacturing. Packaged atta represents a US$ ** billion segment growing at 7.5% CAGR, and biscuits alone generate US$ ** billion while consuming ** MMT of wheat flour. Durum wheat for pasta production has expanded to ** MMT, supporting a pasta market growing at 14% CAGR and reaching ** thousand tonnes of consumption in 2024. E-commerce and organized retail now contribute **% of wheat-based product sales, more than doubling from **% in 2018, reflecting rapid channel diversification.

Competitive Landscape

India’s branded atta market is led by ITC’s Aashirvaad with **% share and estimated revenues of US$ ** billion in 2024, followed by Adani Wilmar and General Mills, which together hold **% of the organized segment. More than 900 registered mills and over 20,000 unorganized mills compete in processing ** MMT of flour annually. Britannia dominates biscuits with **% share and revenues of US$ ** billion, while ITC’s Sunfeast contributes **% supported by 11% YoY growth in wheat-based cookies. Instant noodle producers like Nestlé and Nissin, who jointly control **% of the market, use over ** MMT of wheat flour annually, strengthened by processing investments exceeding US$ ** billion since 2019.

Outlook

India’s wheat and products market is projected to reach US$ ** billion by 2032, growing at around 4.5% CAGR, supported by expected production of ** MMT as yields rise toward ** tonnes/ha through improved seeds and irrigation. Per-capita consumption may increase to 73–75 kg, lifting demand for bakery items, biscuits and packaged atta. Milling capacity is expected to expand from ** MMT to ** MMT, while exports of value-added products could reach US$ ** billion as India deepens its presence in Africa and the Middle East. Storage expansion of ** MMT under modernization schemes is projected to stabilize prices and strengthen long-term market resilience.

Scope of the Report:
• Historical Years: 2018-2024
• Base Year: 2025
• Forecast Period: 2026-2032
• Units: Value (US$ Million) and Volume (Thousand Tonnes)
• Segments Covered:

By Product Type (Common Wheat and Durum Wheat)

By End-Use (Household, Milling, and Feed)

By Derivatives (Wheat Flour (Whole Wheat Flour, Refined Wheat Flour, and Specialty Flours), Semolina, Wheat Bran, Wheat Starch & Gluten, Wheat Germ & Malt, and Others)

By Sales (Domestic Sales and Exports)
• Companies Profiled: The market players include, ITC Limited, Adani Wilmar, General Mills, Patanjali Foods Ltd, Parakh Agro Industries, Prestige Foods, Shree Kailash Grain Mills, Nature Bio-Foods Ltd., Parayil Food Products Pvt. Ltd., Kanha Group, Hathi Brand Flour Mills, Annapurna Flour Mills, Kumar Food Industries Limited, Victoria Foods Pvt Ltd., and Others.

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