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Analysis by Region - MENA

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 12, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20650273

Description

We have raised our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 0.5ppts to 3%, which is still modestly below the consensus view, while increasing our 2025 outlook by 0.3ppts to 3.8%. Third-quarter GDP data confirmed a slower pace of expansion – 3.7% y/y versus 4.9% in Q2 – albeit showing more limited cooling in sequential momentum than we expected. Meanwhile, high-frequency activity indicators paint a mixed picture heading into 2026.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Turkey: Strong Q3 momentum prompts outlook upgrade
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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