We have trimmed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 0.1ppt to 2.8% given headwinds to export and investment dynamics from the global tariff uncertainty and domestic political crackdown. Although incoming data show a stronger Q1 than we expected a month ago, this is countered by downward revisions to near-term projections. We think the central bank's (CBRT) tightened policy will avert a further rise in inflation expectations.
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