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Analysis by Region - MENA

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Apr 22, 2025
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20029149

Description

We have trimmed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey by 0.1ppt to 2.8% given headwinds to export and investment dynamics from the global tariff uncertainty and domestic political crackdown. Although incoming data show a stronger Q1 than we expected a month ago, this is countered by downward revisions to near-term projections. We think the central bank's (CBRT) tightened policy will avert a further rise in inflation expectations.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Turkey: Outlook undermined by domestic and external woes
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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