We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Iran by 0.5ppts to 2.5% in fiscal year (FY) 2025 and by 0.7ppts to 1.6% in FY2026. The downgrade reflects the worsening outlook due to the return of US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign, alongside stronger domestic challenges stemming from the ongoing energy crisis, renewed inflationary pressure, and plunging currency.
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