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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 24, 2025
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE20686061

Description

Following a slightly better Q3 GDP print, we've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% y/y, leaving our 2026 forecast unchanged at 2.5% y/y. Destruction of energy infrastructure will have caused a GDP contraction in Q4 of about 2% q/q, but activity should pick up next year due to a better harvest in 2025/2026, lower inflation, easier monetary policy, and higher spending on defence.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Ukraine: EU bond issuance provides a vital financial lifeline
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy and politics

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