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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jul 31, 2024
Length 6 Pages
SKU # OFE19040297

Description

Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Ukraine



The severe energy shortages and the intensifying war, accompanied by a new wave of mobilisation, have dampened Ukraine's economic recovery to only 1.1% y/y of GDP growth in June, from 3.7% y/y in May. But due to stronger growth in Q1, GDP reached a decent 4.1% y/y expansion in H1. Although we still expect GDP will climb by 3.8% this year, risks are tilted to the downside given the poor June reading. We currently forecast growth of 4.8% for next year, but will revise down our call in our next forecast round to reflect the impact of the upcoming increase in taxes.

Table of Contents

6 Pages
Ukraine: GDP growth slows to only 1.1% in June
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

Pricing

Currency Rates
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