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Industry - Commodity Price Forecasts - Commodity Price Forecasts

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 11, 2025
Length 20 Pages
SKU # OFE20650277

Description

We expect Brent crude to end 2026 at $58 per barrel, below consensus. This outlook is underpinned by a persistent surplus of more than 2 mbpd forecast for next year. We now expect global supply to rise by 1.6 mbpd in 2026 to around 106 mbpd—this is an upgrade of 2.5 mbpd from our previous baseline and reflects stronger-than-expected US output, despite lower prices and a faster ramp-up of new Brazilian projects.

Table of Contents

20 Pages
Global: Oil forecasts slashed on widening surplus
Oil Overview
Lower prices as a surplus emerges
Balances: a surplus above 2 mbpd
Supply outlook
Demand outlook
Gas Overview
European gas (TTF)
US gas
Iron and Steel Overview
Iron ore prices to weaken in 2026
Trade policy main steel price determinant
Base Metals Overview
Price forecasts revised higher
Precious Metals Overview
Gold grows again as rate cut likely
Silver continues to climb with gold
Battery Metals Overview
Price recovery expected to be gradual
Agricultural Commodities Overview
Forecasts trimmed on crude oil downgrades
Lumber prices subdued
Risks
US tariffs
Middle East tensions
Russia-Ukraine war
Macroeconomic risks
Chinese stockpiling
Resource nationalism

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