Condensed Milk - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Condensed Milk Market Analysis

The global condensed milk market, valued at USD 11.21 billion in 2025, is expected to reach USD 20.01 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 12.29% during the forecast period. The market has transformed from a traditional dairy product to an essential ingredient used in bakery manufacturing, ready-to-drink beverages, and plant-based products. Growth is driven by consistent demand from both industrial food processing and retail sectors, where condensed milk's long shelf life and versatility help manufacturers manage supply chain operations effectively. The market expansion is supported by increased bakery and confectionery production, especially in emerging markets where urban populations drive higher consumption of packaged desserts and convenience foods. The incorporation of sweetened condensed milk in ready-to-drink coffee beverages has created new opportunities, as manufacturers use it for sweetening and texture enhancement to meet the growing café culture demand.

Global Condensed Milk Market Trends and Insights

Surge in Bakery and Confectionery Manufacturing Capacity

According to the most recent data available from the International Dairy Deli Bakery Association, for 2024, sales in total bakery were up 5.7% from the prior year to USD 43.5 billion, while unit sales declined by 1.7%. This growth generated increased demand for condensed milk as an essential ingredient in various baked goods, including cakes, pastries, and confectioneries. The versatility of condensed milk in bakery applications, from enriching dough to creating fillings and toppings, has strengthened its position as a crucial ingredient.

Moreover, with the expansion of bakery and confectionery manufacturing capacities, the demand for condensed milk, a critical ingredient in fillings, frostings, and desserts, has increased significantly. As production scales up, manufacturers are leveraging shelf-stable, high-fat dairy inputs, such as condensed milk, to enhance operational efficiency and mitigate spoilage risks. This shift has driven strategic supply chain investments, including the modernization of cold storage infrastructure and the establishment of long-term agreements with dairy suppliers. These measures ensure a reliable supply of ingredients to support large-scale bakery and confectionery operations.

Growing Use of Sweetened Condensed Milk in RTD Coffee Beverages

Ready-to-drink coffee manufacturers increasingly integrate sweetened condensed milk as a premium ingredient that delivers authentic café-style taste profiles while simplifying production processes. This integration addresses consumer demand for convenient coffee experiences that replicate traditional Vietnamese and Thai coffee preparations, where condensed milk serves as both a sweetener and a creamer. Beverage companies leverage condensed milk's natural emulsification properties to achieve consistent texture and mouthfeel across production runs, reducing the need for additional stabilizers or artificial ingredients.

Besides, the trend toward premium RTD coffee beverages has particularly benefited sweetened condensed milk, as younger demographics, especially millennials and Gen Z, drive demand for cold brew coffee and nutrient-enhanced drinks. Social media's influence on marketing these products has accelerated adoption, with visually appealing and unique offerings gaining traction.

Volatility in Global Whole-Milk Powder Prices

Raw material price fluctuations create margin pressure for condensed milk manufacturers. Weather-related disruptions in major dairy-producing regions, combined with geopolitical tensions affecting trade flows, amplify price volatility and complicate long-term contract negotiations between suppliers and food manufacturers. Smaller producers face particular challenges in managing price risk, as they lack the scale to implement sophisticated hedging strategies or negotiate volume-based pricing agreements with dairy suppliers.

The 7% decline in Argentine milk production forecasted for 2024 due to economic instability illustrates how regional supply shocks can cascade through global pricing mechanisms, according to the United States Department of Agriculture . Forward contracting becomes essential for maintaining competitive positioning, though it requires working capital commitments that strain smaller operators' financial resources.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Rise of Vegan/Plant-Based Condensed Coconut and Oat Formulations
2. Long Shelf Life Boosts Demand
3. Logistics Cold-Chain Gaps: Distribution Challenges Persist

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Cans hold the dominant market share at 56.80% in 2024, while tubes show the highest growth rate at 8.90% CAGR during 2025-2030, driven by consumer demand for convenience and portion control. Cans maintain their market leadership due to proven shelf stability, widespread consumer acceptance, and cost-effectiveness in manufacturing and distribution. The traditional can format also benefits from established supply chains and robust recycling infrastructure across global markets. However, new packaging formats are emerging in the market to address evolving consumer needs and sustainability requirements.

SIG's product range, including aseptic cartons, spouted pouches, and bag-in-box systems for dairy products and sweetened condensed milk, offers improved food safety through advanced sterilization processes, enhanced product quality through better preservation methods, and increased convenience with easy-pour features, while reducing environmental impact through materials optimization. This trend is demonstrated by Berglandmilch's implementation of Austria's first SIG SmileBig 24 Aseptic filling machine at its Klagenfurt facility, which produces eco-friendly carton packs at a rate of 24,000 units per hour. The facility's high-speed production capabilities enable efficient market supply while maintaining product integrity and reducing packaging waste.

Sweetened condensed milk holds a 70.50% market share in 2024, driven by its wide applications in both consumer and industrial segments. The product's dominance is attributed to its essential role in confectionery, bakery products, and dessert preparations. The unsweetened evaporated milk segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.00% during 2025-2030. The growth in the unsweetened segment stems from increasing health consciousness among consumers and its broader applications in savory foods and ready-to-drink beverages.

The segment's expansion is further supported by its lower sugar content and versatility in cooking applications. In the condensed milk market, Nestlé's Carnation brand maintains market leadership with high brand awareness through its emphasis on product quality and innovation. The brand's success is reinforced by its consistent product development initiatives and strong distribution network across retail channels.

The Condensed Milk Market is Segmented by Product Type (Dairy and Non-Dairy/Plant-Based); Category (Sweetened Condensed Milk and Unsweetened Evaporated Milk), Packaging Type (Cans, Tubes, Bottles and Pouches, Cartons, and Others); Distribution Channel (Retail, Foodservice, and Industrial); and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

Geography Analysis

North America maintains a 41.22% market share in 2024 through established food processing infrastructure and premium product positioning, while Asia-Pacific emerges as the fastest-growing region at 4.50% CAGR through 2030, driven by urbanization and rising disposable incomes. North America's condensed milk market is evolving through shifting consumer preferences and production dynamics, with the United States remaining the dominant consumer. The USDA forecasts U.S. milk production to reach 228.2 billion pounds in 2024, a 0.7% increase, driven by improved per-cow output despite declining herd sizes . Also, consumer demand is shifting toward premium and specialty products, particularly in the ready-to-drink (RTD) coffee segment, where condensed milk is a key ingredient in cold brew coffee and nutrient-enhanced beverages favored by younger consumers.

Asia-Pacific growth is fueled by urbanization and café culture. In Vietnam, Vinamilk and FrieslandCampina command almost highest share of domestic production, highlighting concentration risk yet also brand resilience. Indonesia’s annual growth in sweetened condensed milk underscores enduring consumer affection tied to traditional beverages, according to the World Bank. Cold-chain deficits limit penetration in rural Indonesia and India, but ongoing infrastructure investment supported by multilateral funding aims to unlock new demand pockets.

Europe emphasizes sustainability and quality certification. The European Dairy Association logged milk output rising to 145 million tonnes in 2024, with processors channeling incremental volumes into value-added items rather than commodity butter. Additionally, Northern European consumers, sensitive to carbon footprints, embrace plant-based condensed milk, encouraging established dairies to acquire or partner with niche vegan brands. Eastern Europe remains price-led, sustaining demand for sweetened canned products imported from Poland and the Netherlands.

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Nestlé S.A.
2. FrieslandCampina N.V.
3. Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.
4. Eagle Family Foods Group LLC
5. Arla Foods amba
6. Vinamilk
7. PT Indofood CBP (Indolakto)
8. Hochwald Foods GmbH
9. Dana Dairy Group Ltd.
10. Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Fed. (Amul)
11. Morinaga Milk Industry Co., Ltd.
12. Santini Foods, Inc.
13. United Dairy Ltd.
14. Nature’s Charm Co. Ltd.
15. Alaska Milk Corp.
16. Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd.
17. Parmalat S.p.A (Lactalis)
18. Almarai Company
19. Borden Dairy Company
20. Milky Mist Dairy Food Private Limited

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support