Australia Retail Sector - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
Description
Australia Retail Sector Market Analysis
Australia retail market stands at USD 296.05 billion in 2025 and is projected to climb to USD 395.73 billion by 2030, reflecting a 6.06% CAGR during the forecast window. Population growth, urban concentration, and a digitally savvy consumer base underpin this expansion even as interest-rate–driven pressures temper discretionary outlays. Regulatory focus has intensified after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) opened wide-ranging inquiries into supermarket pricing, ratcheting up competitive behavior and sharpening price transparency. Mandatory climate-related financial disclosures taking effect in FY 2025 are steering retailers toward circular supply chains and measurable emissions cuts . Food and beverage retains dominance, but health and beauty lead premium growth on the back of ageing demographics and wellness spending. Quick-commerce investment accelerates the channel shift toward sub-2-hour urban delivery, while digital wallets erode cards’ share as younger shoppers embrace contactless payment ecosystems.
Australia Retail Sector Market Trends and Insights
Cost-of-living pressure steering shoppers toward private-label ranges
Household budgets remain stretched, and value hunting now drives unprecedented growth in private-label penetration. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission notes heightened financial anxiety among Gen Z, strengthening demand for lower-priced staples . Woolworths responded by cutting shelf prices on 400 everyday items by 10%, signalling a strategic bid to secure loyalty while widening margins through private brands. Smaller chains lacking scale to fund product development face share erosion as consumers recalibrate loyalty around perceived value rather than heritage brands.
Mandatory sustainability reporting reshaping supply chains
From 1 January 2025, the AASB S2 standard compels listed retailers to detail climate risks, transition plans, and emissions trajectories, effectively tying capital access to environmental disclosures. Retailers with mature carbon-tracking systems gain a first-mover advantage, while resource-constrained independents confront a rising compliance burden. Federal circular-economy targets—doubling national circularity by 2035 and achieving an 80% recovery rate—are already influencing procurement choices toward recyclable packaging and closed-loop logistics.
Freight and last-mile cost burden
Sparse population distribution imposes structurally higher logistics spend. Diesel price volatility and driver shortages inflate unit delivery cost, forcing regional stores to levy price premiums that dampen demand elasticity. Retailers chase scale economies by pooling loads and investing in regional fulfilment nodes, yet the geographic penalty persists, weighing on the overall Australian retail market CAGR.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
- Gen-Z-led social-commerce boom
- Rapid roll-out of dark-store quick-commerce
- Rising national minimum wage inflating operating cost
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Segment Analysis
Food and beverage remains the largest slice, generating 43.40% of revenue in 2024 thanks to non-discretionary household spend. Health and beauty, however, is forecast to outpace all others at 8.65% CAGR, propelled by ageing demographics and higher per-capita wellness spend. In value terms, the Australian retail market size for health and beauty is set to swell by USD 7.2 billion between 2025 and 2030. The broad appeal of pharmacy-led skin-care aisles alongside growing male-grooming demand positions the segment for sustained share gain. Personal and household care products benefit from a circular-economy shift that rewards refill packs and biodegradable formulations, enhancing retailers’ average transaction value. Apparel and footwear face elasticity to mortgage-rate swings, while consumer electronics track housing-related purchase cycles.
Discretionary verticals such as sporting goods and leisure capture upside from outdoor activity trends but encounter inventory-planning complexity tied to seasonal spikes. Pet-care aisles demonstrate defensive credentials; elevated adoption rates during pandemic years stabilize run-rate demand, shielding revenue during downturn months. Duty-free and luxury sales stay cap-exposed to international visitor flows and currency swings, though premium skin-care sub-segments partially offset tourist softness through domestic affluence.
Supermarkets and hypermarkets own 46.85% of the Australia retail market share in 2024, reflecting household-essential dependence and store network density. Yet online pure-play operators are projected to log a 10.87% CAGR to 2030 as checkout friction falls and same-day delivery uptake broadens. Omnichannel banners convert store footprints into micro-fulfilment nodes, blending click-and-collect with curbside pickup to defend share. Convenience stores exploit urban footfall and transit adjacency, capturing snack and beverage missions that resist economic headwinds. Department stores restructure floor space to experiential zones yet continue ceding non-fashion categories to specialty e-tailers. Discount warehouse clubs attract inflation-strapped shoppers through bulk-value propositions and private-label depth.
Store count rationalization accompanies category-mix evolution: multi-year lease exits in under-performing malls fund experiential flagship concepts in CBD corridors. Pop-up activations provide testbeds for seasonal assortments and influencer collaborations. Overall, the Australia retail market continues to bifurcate between scale-rich grocery leaders and agile digital challengers, with mid-tier generalists squeezed in between.
Australia Retail Market is Segmented by Product Category (Food and Beverage, Personal and Household Care, and More), by Retail Format (Supermarkets and Hypermarkets, Convenience Stores, and More), by Distribution Channel (Offline Retailing, Online Retailing, and More), by Payment Mode (Cards and EFTPOS, and More), and by State (New South Wales, Victoria, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).
List of Companies Covered in this Report:
- Woolworths Group Ltd
- Coles Group Ltd
- Wesfarmers Ltd (Bunnings, Kmart, Target, Catch)
- Aldi Stores (Australia) Pty Ltd
- Metcash Ltd (IGA, Foodland)
- Amazon Commercial Services Pty Ltd
- Costco Wholesale Australia Pty Ltd
- JB Hi-Fi Ltd
- Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd
- Myer Holdings Ltd
- David Jones Pty Ltd
- Big W (Woolworths Group)
- The Good Guys (JB Hi-Fi)
- Super Retail Group Ltd (Supercheap Auto, Rebel)
- Chemist Warehouse Group
- Priceline Pharmacy (Sigma Healthcare)
- Accent Group Ltd
- Temple & Webster Group
- Kogan.com Ltd
- Cotton On Group
- Country Road Group
- Decathlon Australia
- Mecca Brands
- Sephora Australia
- Ikea Australia Pty Ltd*
Additional Benefits:
- The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
- 3 months of analyst support
Table of Contents
- 1 Introduction
- 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
- 1.2 Scope of the Study
- 2 Research Methodology
- 3 Executive Summary
- 4 Market Landscape
- 4.1 Market Drivers
- 4.1.1 Cost-of-Living Pressure Accelerating Private Label Adoption across Coles and Woolworths Networks
- 4.1.1.1 Mandatory Sustainability Reporting (FY-25) Pushing Retailers toward Circular Supply Chains
- 4.1.1.2 Gen-Z–Led Social-Commerce Boom in Metro Cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane)
- 4.1.1.3 Mandatory Sustainability Reporting (FY-25) Pushing Retailers toward Circular Supply Chains
- 4.1.1.4 Rapid Roll-out of Dark-Store Quick-Commerce within 5 km Urban Radii
- 4.1.1.5 AI-Driven Shelf-Replenishment and Dynamic Pricing Pilots by Major Chains
- 4.1.2 Market Restraints
- 4.1.2.1 Freight and Last-Mile Costs across Australia’s Dispersed Population Hubs
- 4.1.2.2 Rising National Minimum Wage Lifting Operating Expenses for Brick-and-Mortar Retailers
- 4.1.2.3 Duopoly Supplier Power Imbalance Triggering ACCC Investigations
- 4.1.2.4 Mortgage-Rate-Driven Discretionary Spending Contraction
- 4.1.3 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
- 4.1.4 Regulatory Outlook
- 4.1.5 Technological Outlook
- 4.1.6 Porter's Five Forces
- 4.1.6.1 Threat of New Entrants
- 4.1.6.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
- 4.1.6.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
- 4.1.6.4 Threat of Substitutes
- 4.1.6.5 Competitive Rivalry
- 4.1.7 Consumer Shopping Behaviour Analysis
- 4.2 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Value)
- 4.2.1 By Product Category
- 4.2.1.1 Food and Beverage
- 4.2.1.2 Personal and Household Care
- 4.2.1.3 Apparel and Footwear
- 4.2.1.4 Consumer Electronics and Appliances
- 4.2.1.5 Home and Garden (Furniture and DIY)
- 4.2.1.6 Health and Beauty (Pharmacy and OTC)
- 4.2.1.7 Sporting Goods and Leisure
- 4.2.1.8 Duty-Free and Luxury Goods
- 4.2.1.9 Pet Care, Toys and Stationery
- 4.2.2 By Retail Format
- 4.2.2.1 Supermarkets and Hypermarkets
- 4.2.2.2 Convenience Stores
- 4.2.2.3 Department Stores
- 4.2.2.4 Discount Stores and Warehouse Clubs
- 4.2.2.5 Specialty Stores
- 4.2.2.6 Duty-Free Stores
- 4.2.2.7 Online Pure-Play Retailers
- 4.2.2.8 Omnichannel Retail Chains
- 4.2.2.9 Pop-up and Concept Stores
- 4.2.3 By Distribution Channel
- 4.2.3.1 Offline Retailing
- 4.2.3.2 Online Retailing
- 4.2.3.3 Cross-Border E-commerce
- 4.2.3.4 Social Commerce
- 4.2.3.5 Quick-Commerce (? 2-hr Delivery)
- 4.2.4 By Payment Mode
- 4.2.4.1 Cards and EFTPOS
- 4.2.4.2 Digital Wallets
- 4.2.4.3 Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL)
- 4.2.4.4 Cash
- 4.2.4.5 Bank Transfers and Direct Debit
- 4.2.5 By State
- 4.2.5.1 New South Wales
- 4.2.5.2 Victoria
- 4.2.5.3 Queensland
- 4.2.5.4 Western Australia
- 4.2.5.5 South Australia
- 4.2.5.6 Tasmania
- 4.2.5.7 Australian Capital Territory
- 4.2.5.8 Northern Territory
- 5 Competitive Landscape
- 5.1 Strategic Moves
- 5.2 Market Share Analysis
- 5.3 Company Profiles {(includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)}
- 5.3.1 Woolworths Group Ltd
- 5.3.2 Coles Group Ltd
- 5.3.3 Wesfarmers Ltd (Bunnings, Kmart, Target, Catch)
- 5.3.4 Aldi Stores (Australia) Pty Ltd
- 5.3.5 Metcash Ltd (IGA, Foodland)
- 5.3.6 Amazon Commercial Services Pty Ltd
- 5.3.7 Costco Wholesale Australia Pty Ltd
- 5.3.8 JB Hi-Fi Ltd
- 5.3.9 Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd
- 5.3.10 Myer Holdings Ltd
- 5.3.11 David Jones Pty Ltd
- 5.3.12 Big W (Woolworths Group)
- 5.3.13 The Good Guys (JB Hi-Fi)
- 5.3.14 Super Retail Group Ltd (Supercheap Auto, Rebel)
- 5.3.15 Chemist Warehouse Group
- 5.3.16 Priceline Pharmacy (Sigma Healthcare)
- 5.3.17 Accent Group Ltd
- 5.3.18 Temple & Webster Group
- 5.3.19 Kogan.com Ltd
- 5.3.20 Cotton On Group
- 5.3.21 Country Road Group
- 5.3.22 Decathlon Australia
- 5.3.23 Mecca Brands
- 5.3.24 Sephora Australia
- 5.3.25 Ikea Australia Pty Ltd*
- 6 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook
- 6.1 White-Space & Unmet-Need Assessment
Pricing
Currency Rates
