Australia Power - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)

Australia Power Market Analysis

The Australia Power Market size in terms of installed base is expected to grow from 121.79 gigawatt in 2025 to 147.19 gigawatt by 2030, at a CAGR of 3.86% during the forecast period (2025-2030).

The Australia power market is experiencing large-scale investment in renewables, driven by the federal target of 82% renewable electricity by 2030, underpins this growth. Coal retirements—on track for 90% of units to shut by 2035—are opening space for solar, wind and storage to replace lost baseload. Simultaneously, government underwriting through the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and the AUD 20 billion Rewiring the Nation transmission fund are reducing project risk, accelerating clean-energy construction and modernizing the grid. Rising corporate power-purchase agreements (PPAs), a surge in rooftop solar adoption, and strong battery build-outs are reshaping the demand side, while transmission bottlenecks and community pushback pose near-term challenges in several Renewable Energy Zones (REZs).

Australia Power Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Utility-scale Solar PV Deployment under Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET)

Record additions of 7.5 GW renewable capacity in 2024—of which 4.3 GW came from large solar—confirm solar PV as the lowest-cost power source at USD 36 per MWh. Commitments totaling 1.918 GW last year point to a robust pipeline, with Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria dominating development. Midday solar peaks now require advanced dispatch strategies and more flexible resources. Falling module prices and streamlined permitting processes are drawing new investors, while grid operators refine curtailment rules to safeguard network stability. In this context, solar’s share of national generation continues to rise quickly, fostering new technical and commercial norms.

Surge in Corporate PPAs from Mining & Data-Center Operators in Western Australia

Large miners and digital-infrastructure firms are contracting multi-megawatt solar and storage projects to decarbonize operations under Western Australia’s Energy Transformation Strategy. These PPAs often anchor financing for remote projects that may otherwise struggle for scale. Within the South West Interconnected System, more than one quarter of households already export rooftop solar, complicating balancing tasks yet creating learning curves for corporate offtakers. As commercial load centers align with renewable build-out, new revenue models—involving shared network upgrades and on-site batteries—are emerging. The trend broadens the buyer base for clean energy and diversifies regional demand.

Transmission Bottlenecks Causing Curtailment in Queensland & NSW REZs

Grid constraints raise curtailment for solar and wind, cutting residential rooftop exports by 1.5% on average and eroding utility-scale revenues even further. Mispricing in the National Electricity Market is estimated at 2.2% of generator income, reflecting congestion that planners struggle to solve at the current build-out pace. Queensland’s three REZs aim to support over 3.3 GW of renewables, yet network upgrades lag behind developer pipelines. Project delays reduce investor confidence and prolong reliance on fossil assets. Addressing these pinch points is critical for unlocking latent generation and meeting policy targets.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Grid-scale Battery & Pumped-Hydro Investments Accelerated by Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS)
2. Federal “Rewiring the Nation” Funding for Super-Grid Transmission to Renewable Energy Zones
3. Community Opposition Delaying Wind Farms & HV Interconnector Routes

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Coal delivered 44% of output in 2024, yet its share of the Australian power market is falling as retirements mount. Natural gas supplied 17%, offering fast-ramping support, while hydropower’s 7% share continued stabilizing peaks. Solar PV added 3 GW of rooftop capacity in 2024, lifting cumulative installations beyond 25 GW and pushing solar’s contribution to 18% of generation. Wind supplied 13.4% last year and is advancing through CIS-backed projects. Battery storage under construction provides a parallel growth story, enhancing grid resilience as variable renewables scale.

Solar PV is forecast to grow at an 8.1% CAGR to 2030, the fastest among all sources. This trajectory will lift solar’s portion of the Australian power market size to new highs, even as coal plants close. Meanwhile, pumped hydro and hydrogen-ready gas will firm intermittent output. These shifts demand real-time market reforms and flexible ancillary services to maintain stability, underscoring the interdependence of generation and network investment.

The Australian Power Market Report is Segmented by Power Generation Source (Coal, Natural Gas, Oil, Hydro, Solar PV, Wind, Biomass and Waste, and Other Sources), Power Transmission and Distribution (Voltage Level and Component), and End User (Utilities, Commercial and Industrial, and Residential). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Installed Capacity (GW).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. AGL Energy Ltd.
2. Origin Energy Ltd.
3. EnergyAustralia Holdings Ltd.
4. Snowy Hydro Ltd.
5. Alinta Energy Pty Ltd.
6. Iberdrola Australia Ltd.
7. Goldwind Australia Pty Ltd.
8. Neoen Australia Pty Ltd.
9. TransGrid
10. AusNet Services Ltd.
11. CleanCo Queensland Ltd.
12. Powerlink Queensland
13. TasNetworks
14. APA Group
15. Horizon Power
16. Synergy (Electricity Generation & Retail Corp.)
17. Meridian Energy Australia
18. ENGIE Australia & New Zealand
19. Shell Energy Australia
20. CS Energy Ltd.
21. Lightsource bp Australia

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support