Global Air Source Heat Pump Market Assessment, By Product Type [Air to Water, Air to Air], By Application [Residential, Commercial, Industrial], By Price Range [Mass, Premium], By Region, Opportunities and Forecast, 2018-2032F

Global air source heat pump market is projected to witness a CAGR of 7.16% during the forecast period 2025-2032, growing from USD 60.05 billion in 2024 to USD 104.42 billion in 2032F, owing to government policies, rising energy costs, environmental concerns, and technological advancements. Governments worldwide are implementing strict carbon neutrality goals and offering financial incentives to promote ASHPs (Air Source Heat Pump) as a clean alternative to fossil fuel-based heating. For instance, Europe leads with initiatives such as the UK’s Boiler Upgrade Scheme and Germany’s BEG program, while the U.S. provides tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act. Additionally, bans on gas boilers in countries such as the EU and New York City are accelerating adoption. Rising energy prices, particularly after the Ukraine war, have made ASHPs more attractive due to their high efficiency, with coefficients of performance (COP) reaching higher, significantly outperforming traditional gas boilers.

Environmental policies are another main driver, as nations phase out high-global-warming-potential refrigerants and move toward environmentally friendly alternatives such as R290 and R32. Building codes, including the EU's Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings and California's Title 24, also require low-carbon heating systems, fueling ASHP demand. Technological innovation has also been key, with cold-climate units now performing well in low temperatures, and smart, hybrid systems converging with renewable energy sources such as solar PV. For instance, in January 2025, Clivet S.p.A., an Italian heat pump manufacturer, launched a new air-source heat pump for applications in commercial buildings. The heat pump meets different kinds of applications due to full inverter technology on compressors and fans, and a wide operating envelope. Urbanization and building green buildings are driving ASHP installations in new constructions and retrofits. Rising consumer consciousness of energy security and sustainability is increasingly driving homeowners and businesses towards ASHPs for saving carbon footprints and reducing reliance on imported fossil fuels. Despite challenges such as high capital expenditures and installation complexity, the market is expected to have long-term growth with support from trends of electrification, policy support, and ongoing research and development in heat pump technology.

Rising Energy Costs and Energy Efficiency Drive the Global Air Source Heat Pump Market Demand

The rise in energy prices worldwide, combined with increasing demand for energy-efficient technologies, is driving the adoption of air source heat pumps (ASHPs) very strongly. With electricity and fossil fuel prices remaining unstable due to geopolitical conflicts and supply chain issues, consumers and businesses are moving towards ASHPs as an affordable alternative to conventional gas and oil boiler heating systems. In contrast to traditional boilers, which have a standard 70-90% efficiency rate, ASHPs operate at 300-400% efficiency by recovering more heat energy from the air than the electricity used. This higher energy efficiency equates to long-term savings on utility bills, making ASHPs worthwhile investment despite higher initial expenses. Technological innovation, such as cold-climate ASHPs and smart, hybrid systems, is also driving market growth by enabling better performance in harsh climates and coupling with renewable energy sources. As energy security issues and environmental consciousness increase, demand for ASHPs will continue to grow, further cementing their position as a primary solution for the global shift to efficient, low-carbon heating and cooling.

For instance, in February 2025, Carrier Global Corporation, a heating solutions company based in the US, announced its latest AquaSnap 61AQ heat pump system. This innovative system can provide high-temperature heating of up to 75 degrees Celsius, even when outdoor temperatures drop to as low as -7 degrees Celsius. The new heat pump comes in a variety of capacities, ranging from 40 kW to 140 kW.

Government Policies and Incentives Expand the Global Air Source Heat Pump Market Size

Governments across the globe are taking a leading role in promoting the adoption of air source heat pumps (ASHPs) through strong policy packages and financial support, significantly increasing the market size. In Europe, efforts such as the REPowerEU plan and country programs such as the UK's Boiler Upgrade Scheme (with a capital grant of USD 8563.01) and Germany's BEG subsidies are fueling mass deployment of ASHPs as part of Europe's ambitious decarbonization drive. Likewise, the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act offers generous tax credits for 30% of installation fees (up to USD 2000), and China's Clean Heating Plan keeps driving demand with provincial subsidies in the north. All this policy action is supported by increasingly tough building codes requiring low-carbon heating solutions. The municipal bans on gas hookups in cities such as New York are generating regulatory tailwinds for ASHP adoption. These interventions create not only demand for consumer purchases but also stimulus for industry innovation, which leads to technologies such as ultra-efficient cold-climate models and smart grid-enabled systems. Convergence of climate goals with economic incentives provides a compelling growth drive for the ASHP market.

For instance, in May 2025, A team of researchers from Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture in China came up with an innovative control strategy for managing variable water temperatures and flow rates in PV-driven heat pumps, to boost energy efficiency and enhance overall system performance. The coupling mode of solar PV and ASHPs, and the control optimization method of ASHPs.

Air to Water Type Dominates the Global Air Source Heat Pump Market Share

The air-to-water (ATW) heat pump market is proving to be a dominating segment in the global air source heat pump market, due to its distinct capability of retrofitting into already installed water-based heating systems with greater energy efficiency. In contrast to traditional air-to-air designs, ATW heat pumps exchange exterior heat with hydronic systems, which makes them well-suited for radiant floor heating, radiators, and generation of domestic hot water, especially in areas such as Europe and North America where water-based heating networks are common. Their retrofit design enables homeowners and businesses to shift from fossil fuel boilers without requiring the redesign of whole heating systems, which facilitates faster growth in energy renovation activities. Technological developments, such as enhanced cold-season performance and smart, multifunctional solutions that can offer heating, cooling, and hot water, are also contributing to market growth. As companies launch quieter, smaller, and networked ATW heat pumps, this area is expected to beat the overall ASHP market growth, solidifying its position as a catalyst for building electrification and green heating globally.

For instance, in January 2025, Carrier Global Corporation, a heating solutions company based in the U.S., rolled out a new line of air-to-water heat pumps ranging from 4 to 14 kW. These pumps boast an impressive coefficient of performance of up to 4.90. They utilize propane as a refrigerant and can achieve a leaving water temperature of 75 degrees Celsius.

Europe Leads the Global Air Source Heat Pump Market

Europe has emerged as the leader in the global air source heat pump (ASHP) market, driven by aggressive decarbonization policies, robust government incentives, and a strong push to phase out fossil fuel-based heating systems. The region accounted for the largest share of global ASHP installations, with countries such as Germany, France, and the Nordic nations spearheading adoption. This leadership position stems from Europe's comprehensive policy framework, including the REPowerEU plan, which aims to deploy 60 million heat pumps by 2030 as part of the bloc's energy independence and climate goals. Several key factors reinforce Europe's market dominance. Stringent building regulations and national bans on gas and oil boilers like those in Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands create a favorable environment for ASHP growth. Financial incentives also play a pivotal role, with countries offering grants, tax rebates, and subsidies to lower upfront costs. Additionally, Europe's mature HVAC infrastructure and high consumer awareness of energy efficiency accelerate ASHP adoption. As the energy crisis and climate commitments continue to drive the transition away from fossil fuels, Europe is expected to maintain its leadership in the global ASHP market, setting benchmarks for other regions in policy implementation and market growth.

For instance, in April 2025, RHOSS S.P.A., a company based in Sweden, specializing in developing air conditioning systems, rolled out a new packaged reversible air-cooled heat pump system designed for both heating and cooling in commercial and industrial settings. According to the company, this innovative product comes in two models: the T Version, which focuses on high performance and energy efficiency, and the “super silent” Q Version, crafted specifically for spaces where acoustic comfort is key.

Impact of the U.S. Tariffs on Global Air Source Heat Pump Market

• The U.S. government's recent imposition of higher tariffs on imported air source heat pumps (ASHPs), particularly targeting Chinese manufacturers, is reshaping global market dynamics. These trade barriers, being part of broader efforts to boost domestic clean energy manufacturing, are creating both challenges and opportunities across the industry.
• Chinese manufacturers face tariffs on units exported to the U.S., raising prices for American consumers. Installers and distributors may experience short-term shortages as supply chains adjust.
• Companies are exploring localized production in Southeast Asia or Mexico to bypass tariffs.

Key Players Landscape and Outlook

The global air source heat pump (ASHP) market features a dynamic competitive landscape dominated by established HVAC leaders, regional specialists, and emerging innovators, all driving technological advancements and market expansion. Japanese giants lead in technological innovation with high-efficiency residential and commercial systems. The U.S. based Carrier Global Corporation is capitalizing on domestic manufacturing incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to expand its GreenSpeed heat pump series, while European players are strengthening their positions through advanced air-to-water systems and smart HVAC solutions tailored to EU decarbonization policies. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers previously dominant in low-cost, high-volume production are adapting to U.S. tariffs by redirecting focus toward European and emerging markets. Looking ahead, the ASHP market is poised for robust growth, fueled by government subsidies, cold-climate technological breakthroughs, and the global electrification wave replacing gas boilers. Challenges such as high upfront costs, supply chain disruptions from geopolitical tensions, and a shortage of skilled installers may temporarily hinder progress in some regions. Ultimately, the competitive edge will go to companies that successfully combine technological leadership with localized production strategies and smart energy integration.