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US Telco Capex Fading As Ai Giants Take Center Stage

Publisher MTN Consulting, LLC
Published Jun 04, 2025
SKU # MTNC20394041

Description

This brief examines the near-term outlook for telecom capital expenditures (capex) in the US, based on the 1Q25 earnings of key operators, including AT&T, Verizon, Charter, Comcast, T-Mobile (DT), Lumen, Frontier, and more. It analyzes how current spending patterns compare with previous forecasts, highlights the main forces shaping investment decisions, explores implications for vendors, and discusses trends in emerging areas such as AI, large language models (LLMs), and data centers.

The US market closed 2024 with $80.5 billion in telco capex and $505.2 billion in revenues, representing 27% and 28% of global industry totals, respectively. The USA’s capex to revenue ratio, or capital intensity, was in the 17-18% range in 2022-23. That was well above historic levels. The ratio started to moderate in 2024. For full-year 2024, capital intensity was 15.9%. Based upon 1Q25 earnings calls and other datapoints, that will fall further. US telcos are looking to monetize recent investments, and more focused on conserving capital and cutting costs. Economic and policy uncertainty continues to be high, with inflation and recession fears stemming from the presidentially contrived trade emergency.

As telcos conserve capex, they must see irony in the massive investment bubble in the data center market. Telcos are struggling to attract the same investor interest. However, telcos are finding other ways to benefit from AI in the US. They aren’t positioned well to ride the GenAI wave, but they are deploying AI-based technologies to deliver operational efficiency.

Table of Contents

Summary
Market background – USA
1Q25 results
AT&T
Verizon
Comcast
Charter Communications
T-Mobile (DT)
Frontier Communications
Lumen Technologies (ex-CenturyLink)
Dish Network (EchoStar)
Appendix

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