Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update, 2017–2021: September 2017
This IDC study presents the updated five-year forecast for smartphone shipments worldwide by device vendors. The worldwide smartphone market will reach a total of 1.5 billion units shipped in 2017, up 1.7% from the 1.47 billion units shipped in 2016. From there, shipments will reach 1.73 billion units in 2021, the final year of our forecast period, resulting in a CAGR of 3.3%."The ultra-high-end gamut of the smartphone market continues to flourish in various markets, as we expect the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone to increase over 7% in 2017," says Anthony Scarsella, research manager for IDC's Mobile Phones team. "Premium phablet offerings from a variety of vendors look to be the main driving force behind the growth of devices with screens 5.5in. and larger, which are set to grow over 34% in 2017 across all operating systems. The average selling price of these devices is also expected to increase 9.0%, as we await the arrival of ultra-premium devices such as the iPhone X, Note 8, V30, Essential Phone, and the second-generation Pixel. The large-screen phenomenon shows no signs of slowing down, as phablets will make up 40% of the smartphone market by the end of 2017. By 2021, phablets will control slightly over 51% of the market, proving that bigger is most often better to most consumers."
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