Worldwide Smartphone Forecast Update, 2018–2022: December 2018
This IDC study presents the updated five-year forecast for smartphone shipments worldwide by operating system. The worldwide smartphone market will reach a total of 1.42 billion units shipped in 2018, down 3.1% from the 1.47 billion units shipped in 2017. From there, shipments will reach 1.57 billion units in 2022, the final year of our forecast period, resulting in a CAGR of 1.4%."Growing ASPs and longer upgrade cycles continue to deter the growth of the smartphone market in 2018," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "We are estimating that, in this holiday quarter, both Android and iOS will witness a decline despite the busy shopping season. An overall 0.9% decline in the fourth quarter will be a contributing factor to the 3.1% decline we will see in 2018. Although 2018 will bring a decline to the market, looking forward, we expect single-digit growth, thanks to the arrival of 5G in certain markets and the continued growth in emerging markets like India, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Despite the 2019 growth from Android, we are still expecting a down year for Apple as it will be sidelined for the 5G party. This could play to Apple's advantage as its 'sit back and watch' game might help it avoid any 5G launch bugs that could impact Android vendors moving forward."
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