Strategic Intelligence: Autonomous Vehicles

Strategic Intelligence: Autonomous Vehicles

Summary

Global robotaxi rollout is accelerating but remains highly city-specific in the near term, concentrated in regulator-friendly markets in China, parts of the US, and select Gulf states, with most services operating in geofenced zones and under speed constraints while companies focus on data collection and software maturation. Over the medium term, continued safety performance is pivotal: if major incidents are avoided, regulators are likely to broaden operating domains and permit larger fleets, driving down cost per mile and potentially making robotaxis cheaper than human-driven ride-hailing for dense, repetitive urban trips (airport runs, commuting corridors, and logistics routes). Long-term growth could be expansive into the 2030s and beyond, but a truly global rollout depends on overcoming hard technical edge cases (complex traffic and adverse weather), establishing clear liability frameworks, and-most critically-earning public trust, which can be quickly undermined by high-profile crashes, as highlighted by Cruise’s shutdown after its 2023 pedestrian incident. GlobalData expects the market to consolidate around a small set of well-capitalized first movers-especially Baidu (Apollo Go), Waymo, Zoox, WeRide, and Pony.ai-while Level 5 autonomy remains a distant, uncertain goal likely on a multi-decade timeline and not strictly necessary for many commercial use cases where advanced Level 4 systems are sufficient.

Robotaxi fleets are growing quickly, but in limited markets Global robotaxi growth over the next decade will be tangible, but led by only a few markets, while slower and patchier elsewhere. GlobalData’s robotaxi forecast sees the global fleet of Level 4 capable autonomous vehicles exceeding 10,000 by the end of 2025, up 229% from 2024. Expansion will remain city-specific, led by China, parts of the US, and pockets of the Gulf states that are regulator-friendly. Most operations in these selected locations will be geofenced with speed restraints, while scale will initially be modest compared with traditional ride-hailing businesses, as AV companies continue with data collection and software improvements. China leads the way but government regulation has tightened Leaner profit margins in China’s automotive industry have led to companies cutting unprofitable investment projects, including robotaxis. An incident involving a Xiaomi SU7 in ‘semi-autonomous mode’ led to tighter market regulations. At the national level, new rules were issued that require overthe-air (OTA) software upgrades for automated driving systems to receive regulatory approval. Shortly after, automakers were also banned from using the terms “smart driving” and “autonomous driving” in advertising for driver assistance systems, further signaling a tighter oversight phase. Level 2 will become the standard for ADAS in new vehicles Level 2 Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) already account for the majority of new car sales when considering the highest available specification on each model. Through the 2030s, we expect L2 to become effectively ubiquitous on new vehicles, establishing it as the standard baseline for driving assistance. Level 3 capabilities will be largely confined to premium segments, though increasing participation from Chinese brands is expected to provide some upside to adoption in the medium term. Leaders and challengers We have segmented the autonomous vehicle value chain into three parts: hardware (semiconductors, specialist autonomous modules, and vehicles); software (autonomous driving systems, human machine interface, and incar services); and services (consumer shared services and commercial autonomous). We see the following companies as leaders and challengers in each of these categories: Hardware ▪ Leaders: Nvidia, Intel (Mobileye), Qualcomm, Baidu (Apollo Go). ▪ Challengers: Black Sesame Technologies, Pony.ai, Tesla, XPeng. Software ▪ Leaders: Alphabet (Waymo), Amazon (Zoox), Baidu (Apollo Go). ▪ Challengers: May Mobility, Pony.ai, Wayve. Services ▪ Leaders: Amazon, Baidu, DiDi, Grab, Lyft, Uber. ▪ Challengers: Alibaba, Einride, Nuro.

Key Highlights

• The autonomous vehicle (AV) sector is rapidly advancing as automakers, tech firms, and specialist component providers push innovation in sensor hardware, perception software, and automated systems. Companies are investing in resilient supply chains for critical parts like LiDAR, radar, and AI chips, often localizing production to reduce reliance on foreign sources. At the same time, regulation is tightening globally: China now requires regulatory approval for over-the-air software updates affecting autonomous driving features, mandates reporting of malfunctions, and limits marketing of driver-assistance systems to avoid misrepresenting them as fully autonomous.

Scope

• This report provides an overview of the Autonomous Vehicles theme. The detailed value chain comprises three layers: Hardware, Software, Services. Leading and challenging vendors are identified across these segments.
• It identifies automotive challenges, such as technology challenges (ADAS, vision and sensor systems, infrastructure) , public acceptance, commercial sustainability, local and municipal transport policy and social justice and equity on the automotive industry, addressing these challenges.

Reasons to Buy

• As the autonomous vehicle sector experiences rapid technological breakthroughs and regulatory shifts, there are compelling incentives for stakeholders to engage with this unfolding market.
• This report is indispensable for senior executives, as it highlights key trends, business models, and forward-looking strategies to help organizations navigate the autonomous mobility ecosystem and seize evolving opportunities.

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