Oil and Gas Sector Strategies in Renewable Fuels - 2025
Description
Oil and Gas Sector Strategies in Renewable Fuels - 2025
Summary
The oil and gas sector currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is among the largest. Low-carbon fuels, such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels, offer a route to decarbonization that enables the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries while diversifying its assets and reducing the risk of stranded assets.
Despite mounting pressures, many oil and gas companies have rolled back investments in renewables, shifting their corporate strategies towards maximizing short-term shareholder value, often at the expense of long-term energy diversification. Most notably, BP and Shell have cancelled large-scale plants due to weak market demand and high production costs compared to conventional fuels.
Despite this trend, many oil and gas companies are still exploring strategies to branch into the renewable fuels market. In terms of project with oil and gas participation, the coprocessing pathway is expected to experience the greatest growth between 2025 and 2030, due to its ability to rapidly scale production of low-blend renewable fuels at minimal upfront cost.
Overall, the oil and gas sector will largely target the production of SAFs, with the fuel experiencing the strongest growth from 2025 to 2030, at a CAGR of 19%, driven by increased project announcements. This is due to the perceived market potential for SAFs, as it is seen as the most promising pathway to decarbonize the aviation industry.
Key Highlights
Summary
The oil and gas sector currently faces numerous challenges, but the pressure to decarbonize and diversify its products is among the largest. Low-carbon fuels, such as renewable diesel, SAFs, and synthetic fuels, offer a route to decarbonization that enables the industry to continue providing products and services to its existing consumer industries while diversifying its assets and reducing the risk of stranded assets.
Despite mounting pressures, many oil and gas companies have rolled back investments in renewables, shifting their corporate strategies towards maximizing short-term shareholder value, often at the expense of long-term energy diversification. Most notably, BP and Shell have cancelled large-scale plants due to weak market demand and high production costs compared to conventional fuels.
Despite this trend, many oil and gas companies are still exploring strategies to branch into the renewable fuels market. In terms of project with oil and gas participation, the coprocessing pathway is expected to experience the greatest growth between 2025 and 2030, due to its ability to rapidly scale production of low-blend renewable fuels at minimal upfront cost.
Overall, the oil and gas sector will largely target the production of SAFs, with the fuel experiencing the strongest growth from 2025 to 2030, at a CAGR of 19%, driven by increased project announcements. This is due to the perceived market potential for SAFs, as it is seen as the most promising pathway to decarbonize the aviation industry.
Key Highlights
- To date, oil and gas companies have accounted for the lion’s share of renewable refinery production capacity globally. In 2024, the sector contributed 78% of renewable refinery production capacity.
- The sector’s large share of capacity is primarily due to the volume of projects that have already been completed, with its active capacity totaling nearly 8,300mmgy in 2024.
- However, from 2025 to 2030, the sector is forecasted to lose its leadership of the renewable fuels market. By 2030, it will only account for 46% of global renewable refinery production capacity. This is driven by other sectors outpacing the oil and gas sector in project development.
- Unlike the overall market, crude refinery co-processing has seen the largest growth in capacity from 2022 to 2024, growing at a CAGR of 44%. This is primarily due to the 44 co-processing refineries that began operations in 2024.
- Notable strategy shifts of oil and gas companies
- Oil and gas sector challenges
- Oil and gas sector strategies for transitioning into renewable fuels, including renewable standalone, co-processing, and conversion refineries
- Focus low-carbon fuels for the oil and gas sector,
- Outlook for oil and gas-owned renewable fuel capacity by refinery and fuel type
- Deal activity regarding oil and gas companies in renewable deals
- Identify decarbonizing market trends within the oil and gas sector, including the analysis of the strategies that the most prominent industry players are implementing.
- Develop market insight of the major technologies and pathways used to decarbonize the industry, including refinery retrofitting as well as investment into standalone refineries, with focus on renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuels, and synthetic fuels.
- Identify the key policies driving development and which countries have the most established legislative framework for said technologies.
- Facilitate the understanding of what is predicted to happen in the renewable fuels market within the next decade.
Table of Contents
20 Pages
- Executive Summary
- Notable strategy shifts of oil and gas companies
- Sector Strategies for Transitioning to Renewable Fuels
- Challenges facing the oil and gas sector
- Oil and gas companies are investing in different types of renewable refineries
- The focus low-carbon fuels for the oil and gas industry
- Oil and gas sector standing in the renewable fuels market
- Oil and gas sector renewable fuel capacity by refinery type
- Oil and gas companies are focusing on utilizing existing refineries
- Outlook of oil and gas participation in renewable standalone refineries
- Largest upcoming oil and gas-owned renewable refineries
- Oil and gas renewable fuel capacity by product
- Oil and gas renewable fuel production leaders by refinery types
- Deal Activity and Case Study Examples
- Key oil and gas company deals related to renewable fuels
- Case study examples
- List of Tables
- Notable strategy shifts of oil and gas companies
- Largest upcoming oil and gas-owned renewable refineries
- List of Figures
- Oil and gas companies' share of global total renewable fuel capacity 2022-2030
- Renewable fuel capacity by stage derived from oil and gas participated refineries 2022-2030
- Renewable fuel capacity by refinery type 2022-2030
- Oil and gas capacity and project count for co-processing and conversion refineries based on active and upcoming projects 2030
- Top 5 oil and gas companies by co-processing capacity 2025YTD
- Top 5 oil and gas companies by co-processing capacity 2030
- Top 5 oil and gas companies by conversion capacity 2025YTD
- Top 5 oil and gas companies by conversion capacity 2030
- Renewable standalone capacity and project count derived from oil and companies 2022-2030
- Top 5 oil and gas companies by renewable standalone capacity 2025YTD
- Top 5 oil and gas companies by renewable standalone capacity 2030
- Renewable diesel and SAF capacity and project count from oil and gas participated refineries 2022-2030
- Top 5 leading oil and gas majors by maximum hydrogen capacity allocated to synthetic fuel industry (ktpa)
- Leading oil and gas renewable fuel producers 2025YTD (renewable standalone)
- Leading oil and gas renewable fuel producers 2030 (renewable standalone)
- Leading oil and gas renewable fuel producers 2025YTD (co-processing & conversion)
- Leading oil and gas renewable fuel producers 2030 (co-processing & conversion)
- Key deals regarding oil and gas companies in renewable fuels
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