North America Hydrogen Market Report - 2025

North America Hydrogen Market Report - 2025

Summary

North America is losing ground in the global low-carbon hydrogen race, with its projected share of global capacity set to drop from 46% in 2025 to just 28% by 2030. The region faces growing headwinds from policy shifts, most notably under Trump’s renewed administration, which is curbing green hydrogen momentum through halted funding, and high tariffs on imports. These changes are accelerating a pivot toward blue hydrogen and reinforcing regional disparities, as federal rollback contrasts with continued state and provincial support.

North America's position in the global low-carbon hydrogen market is weakening, with its share of global capacity projected to drop from 46% in 2025 to 28% by 2030. While the US now leads regionally, policy shifts under the Trump administration - halted IRA funding, stricter 45V rules, and new tariffs on steel, aluminum, and clean tech imports - are inflating costs and stalling green hydrogen growth. This is accelerating a pivot toward blue hydrogen. Canada’s momentum has slowed due to project delays, chiefly those of GHI, while Mexico remains a marginal player. Despite federal setbacks, state and provincial initiatives, particularly in California, New York, Alberta, and Quebec, continue to support hydrogen development. Transport remains the key end-use sector, with growing interest from heavy-duty vehicle and industrial applications.

Key Highlights

• Although previously seen as a global leader in this sector, North America’s share of the global low-carbon hydrogen capacity is expected to decrease from 46% in 2025 to 28% in 2030.
• North America ranks third globally for low-carbon hydrogen capacity, following Europe and Africa, with the US holding the majority of North America's hydrogen capacity, accounting for 63% of the region’s total.
• Between 2024 and 2025 Canada lost its regional lead, due to the stalling and postponement of GHI projects. Whilst the US now ranks first in North America, and 76% of its pipeline capacity lies in post-feasibility stage projects, the overall outlook appears less optimistic, due to the current administration’s plan to increase fossil fuel production at the expense of renewable energy development.
• Mexico remains a slow mover within the region’s hydrogen market, with just 102ktpa of capacity across all of its active and upcoming projects.

• NA's low-carbon hydrogen capacity outlook, Key regional projects, Key companies operating in NA's hydrogen market, Hydrogen end-use sectors, Hydrogen policy in the US, Canada and Mexico, including Trump’s recent tariffs, Deal activity related to hydrogen in NS, Company filings analysis of NA headquartered companies

• Identify the market trends within the region, particularly following the policy shift in the US caused by the Trump’s presidency.
• Identify key players in hydrogen technologies.
• Develop market insight of active and upcoming capacity.
• Analyze the region's different scenarios for 2030 based on the likelihood of projects' completion.
• Identify the demand in key application areas for both regions, with particular focus on transport, ammonia and methanol, iron and steel.