Renewable / Bio Jet Fuel

Global Renewable / Bio Jet Fuel Market to Reach US$445.4 Billion by 2030

The global market for Renewable / Bio Jet Fuel estimated at US$170.9 Billion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$445.4 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 17.3% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene Conversion Pathway, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 16.2% CAGR and reach US$194.4 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Hydroprocessed Esters & Fatty Acids Conversion Pathway segment is estimated at 16.7% CAGR over the analysis period.

The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$44.9 Billion While China is Forecast to Grow at 16.4% CAGR

The Renewable / Bio Jet Fuel market in the U.S. is estimated at US$44.9 Billion in the year 2024. China, the world`s second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$68.9 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 16.4% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 15.8% and 15.1% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 12.8% CAGR.

Global “Renewable / Bio Jet Fuel” Market – Key Trends & Drivers Summarized

Why Is Renewable Jet Fuel Critical to Decarbonizing Global Aviation?
Renewable or bio jet fuel—commonly known as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)—is emerging as the aviation sector’s most viable path to achieving long-term climate goals. As aviation contributes roughly 2–3% of global CO2 emissions, reducing its carbon footprint is imperative to meet global climate commitments. Bio jet fuels, produced from feedstocks such as used cooking oil, animal fats, and agricultural waste, can reduce lifecycle emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional kerosene-based jet fuels. They are compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure, making them a "drop-in" solution requiring no major hardware changes. Airlines, regulators, and environmental groups increasingly view SAF as essential to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

How Are Production Technologies and Feedstock Innovations Advancing the Market?
Technological advancements in biofuel refining and feedstock processing are critical to expanding SAF availability and affordability. Processes like HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids), FT (Fischer-Tropsch), and ATJ (alcohol-to-jet) are being optimized to scale commercial output. New feedstock sources, such as algae and municipal solid waste, are being explored for their high yield and sustainability potential. Innovation in carbon capture and synthetic fuel technologies—often labeled as "power-to-liquid"—is also gaining momentum. These breakthroughs are reducing production costs and increasing the energy density and performance consistency of SAF. Strategic collaborations between oil majors, tech firms, and airlines are accelerating the construction of bio-refineries and integrated SAF supply chains.

Which Stakeholders Are Driving the Demand for Bio Jet Fuel Worldwide?
Airlines are at the forefront of SAF adoption, driven by environmental goals, fuel diversification strategies, and mounting regulatory pressure. Major carriers such as United, Lufthansa, and British Airways are entering long-term SAF procurement agreements to hedge against future carbon costs. Governments and regulatory bodies in the EU, U.S., and Asia are rolling out SAF blending mandates, tax incentives, and grants to boost market viability. Airport authorities, aircraft manufacturers, and logistics firms are also investing in SAF infrastructure and partnerships. Even corporate buyers, particularly in tech and finance, are supporting SAF purchases as part of their broader Scope 3 emissions reduction strategies. This multi-stakeholder momentum is vital to scale SAF adoption and reduce its cost premium.

The Growth in the Renewable / Bio Jet Fuel Market Is Driven by Decarbonization Mandates, Blending Targets, and Aviation Sector Partnerships
The renewable jet fuel market is expanding due to a confluence of regulatory, technological, and corporate drivers. First, global climate mandates and net-zero aviation targets are pushing governments to implement SAF blending requirements and support SAF development through grants and policy frameworks. Second, airlines are proactively seeking low-emission fuel alternatives to meet carbon offset obligations and future-proof their operations. Third, advances in bio-refining technologies and expansion of feedstock availability are making SAF more scalable and cost-competitive. Fourth, strategic alliances between fuel producers, airlines, and governments are creating a cohesive ecosystem to support SAF growth. Lastly, increasing investor interest in green aviation and ESG metrics is reinforcing capital flows into SAF ventures, making renewable jet fuel a key growth frontier in global energy transition strategies.

SCOPE OF STUDY:

The report analyzes the Renewable / Bio Jet Fuel market in terms of units by the following Segments, and Geographic Regions/Countries:

Segments:
Conversion Pathways (Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene, Hydroprocessed Esters & Fatty Acids, Synthetic Iso-paraffin from Fermented Hydroprocessed Sugar, Alcohol to Jet SPK); Feedstock (Agriculture Crops, Aquaculture Crops, Energy Crops, Multiple Solid Waste, Other Feedstocks)

Geographic Regions/Countries:
World; United States; Canada; Japan; China; Europe (France; Germany; Italy; United Kingdom; and Rest of Europe); Asia-Pacific; Rest of World.

Select Competitors (Total 34 Featured) -

• Airbus SE
• Alder Fuels
• BP p.l.c.
• Chevron Corporation
• DG Fuels
• Enerkem Inc.
• Eni S.p.A.
• ExxonMobil Corporation
• Gevo, Inc.
• LanzaJet, Inc.
• Neste Corporation
• OMV Aktiengesellschaft
• Repsol S.A.
• Shell plc
• Sinopec Corp.
• SkyNRG B.V.
• TotalEnergies SE
• Valero Energy Corporation
• Velocys plc
• World Energy, LLC

TARIFF IMPACT FACTOR

Our new release incorporates impact of tariffs on geographical markets as we predict a shift in competitiveness of companies based on HQ country, manufacturing base, exports and imports (finished goods and OEM). This intricate and multifaceted market reality will impact competitors by artificially increasing the COGS, reducing profitability, reconfiguring supply chains, amongst other micro and macro market dynamics.

We are diligently following expert opinions of leading Chief Economists (14,949), Think Tanks (62), Trade & Industry bodies (171) worldwide, as they assess impact and address new market realities for their ecosystems. Experts and economists from every major country are tracked for their opinions on tariffs and how they will impact their countries.

We expect this chaos to play out over the next 2-3 months and a new world order is established with more clarity. We are tracking these developments on a real time basis.

As we release this report, U.S. Trade Representatives are pushing their counterparts in 183 countries for an early closure to bilateral tariff negotiations. Most of the major trading partners also have initiated trade agreements with other key trading nations, outside of those in the works with the United States. We are tracking such secondary fallouts as supply chains shift.

To our valued clients, we say, we have your back. We will present a simplified market reassessment by incorporating these changes!

APRIL 2025: NEGOTIATION PHASE

Our April release addresses the impact of tariffs on the overall global market and presents market adjustments by geography. Our trajectories are based on historic data and evolving market impacting factors.

JULY 2025 FINAL TARIFF RESET

Complimentary Update: Our clients will also receive a complimentary update in July after a final reset is announced between nations. The final updated version incorporates clearly defined Tariff Impact Analyses.

Reciprocal and Bilateral Trade & Tariff Impact Analyses:

USA
CHINA
MEXICO
CANADA
EU
JAPAN
INDIA
176 OTHER COUNTRIES.

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