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The Global Green Steel Market 2026-2036

Published Oct 01, 2025
Length 85 Pages
SKU # FTMK20492599

Description

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Market Context and Urgency
1.2 Critical Technology Assessment: The Hydrogen Reality Check
1.3 Emerging Technology Winners
1.4 Regional Competitiveness Dynamics
1.4.1 Europe's Diverging Fortunes
1.4.2 Global Leaders in Low-Carbon Steel
1.5 Policy Landscape
1.5.1 European Union
1.5.2 United States
1.6 Major Project Developments & Financial Realities
1.6.1 Success Stories
1.6.2 Cautionary Tales
1.7 Economic Crossover Points
1.8 Market Structure Transformation
1.8.1 Production Capacity Shifts (2025-2035)
1.8.2 Trade Flow Reconfiguration
1.8.3 Capital Intensity
1.8.4 Financing Challenges
1.9 Critical Bottlenecks & Infrastructure Gaps
1.10 Revised Hydrogen Demand Projections
1.11 Policy Recommendations
1.12 Bottom Line: Technology Trumps Policy Optimism
2 INTRODUCTION
2.1 Current Steelmaking processes
2.2 "Double carbon" (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) goals and ultra-low emissions requirements
2.3 What is green steel?
2.3.1 Properties
2.3.2 Advances in clean production technologies
2.3.3 The Economic Reality: 2025 Market Assessment
2.3.3.1 Policy and Infrastructure Challenges
2.3.3.2 Financial Stress in European Green Steel Projects
2.3.3.3 Successful Projects Demonstrate Viable Pathways
2.3.3.4 Market Reality
2.4 Decarbonization of steel
2.4.1 CO₂ Reduction Technologies
2.4.1.1 Economic Viability Assessment
2.4.2 The Hydrogen Reality Check
2.4.3 Emerging Technologies
2.4.3.1 Molten Oxide Electrolysis (MOE)
2.4.3.2 Electrified Biomethane DRI with Carbon Capture
2.4.3.3 Flash Ironmaking
2.4.3.4 Hydrogen's Narrow Viable Niche
2.4.4 Decarbonization target and policies
2.4.4.1 EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)
2.5 Production technologies
2.5.1 The role of hydrogen
2.5.1.1 The Hydrogen Cost Problem
2.5.1.2 Why Hydrogen Costs Remain High: Compounding Inefficiencies
2.5.1.3 Failed Assumptions Behind Hydrogen Optimism
2.5.1.4 Comparative Technology Assessment: Hydrogen vs. Alternatives
2.5.1.5 Hydrogen Demand Revision: Steel's Diminished Role
2.5.1.6 The Narrow Path Forward for Hydrogen in Steel
2.5.1.7 Policy Implications: Avoiding Stranded Assets
2.5.2 Comparative analysis
2.5.3 Hydrogen Direct Reduced Iron (DRI)
2.5.4 Electrolysis
2.5.4.1 Molten Oxide Electrolysis: The Direct Electrification Pathway
2.5.5 Biomethane Direct Reduction with Carbon Capture
2.5.5.1 Overview and Strategic Position
2.5.5.2 Process Description
2.5.5.3 Carbon Balance and Negative Emissions Mechanism
2.5.5.4 Economic Assessment
2.5.5.5 Biomass Supply Chains and Sustainability
2.5.5.6 Biodigester Infrastructure Development Requirements
2.5.5.7 Carbon Capture Technology Implementation
2.5.5.8 CO2 Storage and Utilization Options
2.5.5.9 Optimal Strategy for Biomethane DRI: Hybrid Approach
2.5.5.10 Carbon Removal Credit Markets
2.5.5.11 Technology Readiness and Deployment Timeline
2.5.5.12 Scalability Assessment and Limitations
2.5.6 Flash Ironmaking: Simplified Process with Natural Gas and CCS
2.5.6.1 Process Description
2.5.6.2 Technology Basis: Flash Copper Smelting
2.5.6.3 Economic Analysis
2.5.6.4 Regional Suitability Assessment
2.5.6.5 Strategic Considerations
2.5.6.6 Strategic Role: Transitional Bridge Technology
2.5.6.7 Environmental Performance and Lifecycle Analysis
2.5.7 Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS)
2.5.7.1 Overview
2.5.7.2 BF-BOF (Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace)
2.5.7.3 Selection of carbon capture technology
2.5.7.4 Pre-Combustion Carbon Capture for Ironmaking
2.5.7.5 Gas Recycling and Oxyfuel Combustion
2.5.7.6 Sorption Enhanced Water Gas Shift (SEWGS)
2.5.7.7 Amine-Based Post-Combustion CO₂ Absorption
2.5.7.8 Carbon Capture for Natural Gas-Based DRI
2.5.7.9 CO₂ Storage
2.5.7.10 CO₂ Transportation
2.5.7.11 CO₂ Utilization for Steel
2.5.7.12 Carbon Capture Costs
2.5.7.13 Carbon Credit and Carbon Offsetting
2.5.8 Biochar replacing coke
2.5.9 Hydrogen Blast Furnace
2.5.10 Renewable energy powered processes
2.5.11 Hydrogen Plasma Iron Ore Reduction
2.5.12 Ferrous Bioprocessing
2.5.13 Microwave Processing
2.5.14 Additive Manufacturing
2.5.15 Technology readiness level (TRL)
2.6 Advanced materials in green steel
2.6.1 Composite electrodes
2.6.2 Solid oxide materials
2.6.3 Hydrogen storage metals
2.6.4 Carbon composite steels
2.6.5 Coatings and membranes
2.6.6 Sustainable binders
2.6.7 Iron ore catalysts
2.6.8 Carbon capture materials
2.6.9 Waste gas utilization
2.7 Advantages and disadvantages of green steel
2.8 Markets and applications
2.9 Energy Savings and Cost Reduction in Steel Production
2.10 Digitalization
2.11 Biomass Steel Production and Sustainable Green Steel Production Chain
3 THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR GREEN STEEL
3.1 Global steel production
3.1.1 Steel prices
3.1.2 Green steel prices
3.1.2.1 Historical Price Development (2023-2024)
3.1.2.2 2025 Market Evolution
3.1.2.3 2026-2030 Price Outlook
3.1.3 Market Restructuring and Technology Shift (2025-2036)
3.1.3.1 Technology Mix Evolution
3.1.3.2 Regional Production Shifts
3.1.3.3 HBI Trade Emergence
3.2 Green steel plants and production, current and planned
3.3 Market map
3.4 SWOT analysis
3.5 Market trends and opportunities
3.5.1 Technology Divergence and Regional Specialization (2025-2036)
3.5.1.1 Emerging Technology Hierarchy
3.5.1.2 HBI Trade as Strategic Enabler
3.5.1.3 Implications for Investment Strategy
3.6 Industry developments, funding and innovation 2022-2025
3.7 Market growth drivers
3.8 Market challenges
3.9 End-use industries
3.9.1 Automotive
3.9.1.1 Market overview
3.9.1.2 Applications
3.9.2 Construction
3.9.2.1 Market overview
3.9.2.2 Applications
3.9.3 Consumer appliances
3.9.3.1 Market overview
3.9.3.2 Applications
3.9.4 Machinery
3.9.4.1 Market overview
3.9.4.2 Applications
3.9.5 Rail
3.9.5.1 Market overview
3.9.5.2 Applications
3.9.6 Packaging
3.9.6.1 Market overview
3.9.6.2 Applications
3.9.7 Electronics
3.9.7.1 Market overview
3.9.7.2 Applications
4 GLOBAL MARKET PRODUCTION AND DEMAND
4.1 Production Capacity 2020-2036
4.2 Production vs. Demand 2020-2036
4.2.1 Regional Supply-Demand Imbalances
4.2.2 Demand for Low-Emissions Steel by End-Use Industry
4.2.3 Market Maturation Timeline and Inflection Points
4.3 Revenues 2020-2036
4.3.1 By end-use industry
4.3.2 By region
4.3.2.1 Europe
4.3.2.2 China
4.3.2.3 North America
4.3.2.4 India
4.3.2.5 Asia-Pacific excl. China
4.3.2.6 Middle East & Africa
4.3.2.7 South America
4.4 Competitive landscape
4.5 Future market outlook
4.5.1 Technology Evolution
4.5.2 Economic Competitiveness
4.5.3 Market Structure
4.5.4 Supply Chain Transformation
4.5.5 Policy and Regulation
4.5.6 Investment Requirements and Returns
4.5.7 Customer Adoption
4.5.8 Risks and Uncertainties
4.5.9 Social and Environmental Implications
5 COMPANY PROFILES 170 (46 company profiles)
6 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
7 LIST OF ACRONYMS
8 REFERENCES
List of Tables
Table 1. Production Cost Convergence (2025-2035).
Table 2. Main Routes to Green Steel.
Table 3. Properties of Green steels.
Table 4. CO₂ emissions from the conventional BF-BOF process.
Table 5. CO₂ Reduction Technologies.
Table 6. Decarbonization Technologies.
Table 7. Comparative Production Costs (2025 Baseline).
Table 8. Economic Comparison of Low-Carbon Steel Technologies (2025).
Table 9. Market Drivers & Barriers Table.
Table 10. Global Decarbonization Targets and Policies related to Green Steel.
Table 11. Required Levelized Cost of Hydrogen for Competitiveness.
Table 12. Green Steel Production Routes
Table 13. Energy Requirements per Tonne of Steel.
Table 14. Comparison of green steel production technologies.
Table 15. Advantages and disadvantages of each potential hydrogen carrier.
Table 16. Key Process Characteristics.
Table 17. Cost Breakdown (Projected Commercial Scale).
Table 18. Regional Cost Competitiveness (2030 Projections at Commercial Scale).
Table 19. Molten Oxide Electrolysis Development Roadmap.
Table 20. CO2 Stream Characteristics Comparison Across Industrial Sources.
Table 21. Detailed Carbon Flow per Tonne of Crude Steel
Table 22. Lifecycle Emissions Comparison Across Steel Production Pathways.
Table 23. Cost Components per Tonne of Crude Steel Production.
Table 24. Sustainable Biomass Sources - Priority Ranking.
Table 25. Current vs. Required Biodigester Infrastructure
Table 26. Carbon Capture Cost Breakdown - Amine Scrubbing for DRI (per tonne CO2 captured).
Table 27. North Sea CO2 Storage Projects - Key Infrastructure.
Table 28. CO2 Utilization vs. Storage - Climate Impact Comparison.
Table 29. Hybrid CO2 Management Strategy (Tata Steel IJmuiden Example, 2.5 Mt Steel Production)
Table 30. Carbon Removal Credit Pricing by Market Segment (2025).
Table 31. Component Technology Readiness Assessment (2025).
Table 32. Deployment Timeline and Milestones
Table 33. Biomass Availability and Steel Production Potential by Region
Table 34. Key Distinctions from Traditional Ironmaking.
Table 35. Natural Gas Flash Ironmaking + CCS Cost Breakdown ($/tonne crude steel, 2030 projection).
Table 36. Comparison with Alternatives.
Table 37. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (full lifecycle).
Table 38. Comparison with Alternatives (lifecycle).
Table 39. The CCUS Value Chain.
Table 40. CCUS Project Pipeline for the Steel Sector.
Table 41. Post Combustion Capture Technologies for BF-BOF Process.
Table 42. Blast Furnace Gas CO₂ Capture Technologies Comparison.
Table 43. Carbon Capture Technologies for Natural Gas DRI.
Table 44. CCUS Business Model.
Table 45. Storage Technology and Operators.
Table 46. Carbon Capture Cost Comparison by Sector.
Table 47. Steel Industry Carbon Credit Purchasing Trends.
Table 48. CCUS Steel Sector Challenges and Opportunities.
Table 49. Biochar in steel and metal.
Table 50. Hydrogen blast furnace schematic.
Table 51. Applications of microwave processing in green steelmaking.
Table 52. Applications of additive manufacturing (AM) in steelmaking.
Table 53. Technology readiness level (TRL) for key green steel production technologies.
Table 54. Coatings and membranes in green steel production.
Table 55. Advantages and disadvantages of green steel.
Table 56. Markets and applications: green steel.
Table 57. Green Steel Plants - Current and Planned Production.
Table 58. Industry developments and innovation in Green steel, 2022-2025.
Table 59. Summary of market growth drivers for Green steel.
Table 60. Market challenges in Green steel.
Table 61. Supply agreements between green steel producers and automakers.
Table 62. Applications of green steel in the automotive industry.
Table 63. Applications of green steel in the construction industry.
Table 64. Applications of green steel in the consumer appliances industry.
Table 65. Applications of green steel in machinery.
Table 66. Applications of green steel in the rail industry.
Table 67. Applications of green steel in the packaging industry.
Table 68. Applications of green steel in the electronics industry.
Table 69. Low-Emissions Steel Production Capacity 2020-2035 (Million Metric Tons).
Table 70. Regional Capacity Distribution (2036 Projection)
Table 71. Low-Emissions Steel Production vs. Demand 2020-2036 (Million Metric Tons).
Table 72. Regional Production-Demand Balance 2036
Table 73. Global HBI Trade Flows (Projected 2036).
Table 74. Demand for Low-Emissions Steel by End-Use Industry 2020-2036 (Million Metric Tons).
Table 75. Low-Emissions Steel Market Revenues 2020-2036.
Table 76. Market Revenues by Sector 2025-2036 ($B)
Table 77. Regional Demand for Low-Emissions Steel 2020-2036, EUROPE (Million Metric Tons)
Table 78. Regional Demand for Low-Emissions Steel 2020-2036, CHINA (Million Metric Tons)
Table 79. Regional Demand for Low-Emissions Steel 2020-2036, NORTH AMERICA (Million Metric Tons)
Table 80. Regional Demand for Low-Emissions Steel 2020-2036, INDIA (Million Metric Tons)
Table 81. Regional Demand for Low-Emissions Steel 2020-2036, ASIA-PACIFIC (excluding China) (Million Metric Tons).
Table 82. Regional Demand for Low-Emissions Steel 2020-2036, MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA (Million Metric Tons)
Table 83. Regional Demand for Low-Emissions Steel 2020-2036, SOUTH AMERICA (Million Metric Tons)
Table 84. Key players in Green steel, location and production methods.
Table 85. Investment Estimates (2025-2036).
List of Figures
Figure 1. Share of (a) production, (b) energy consumption and (c) CO2 emissions from different steel making routes.
Figure 2. Transition to hydrogen-based production.
Figure 3. CO2 emissions from steelmaking (tCO2/ton crude steel).
Figure 4. CO2 emissions of different process routes for liquid steel.
Figure 5. Hydrogen Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) process.
Figure 6. Molten oxide electrolysis process.
Figure 7. Flash ironmaking process.
Figure 8. Hydrogen Plasma Iron Ore Reduction process.
Figure 9. Green steel market map.
Figure 10. SWOT analysis: Green steel.
Figure 12. ArcelorMittal decarbonization strategy.
Figure 13. HYBRIT process schematic.
Figure 14. Schematic of HyREX technology.
Figure 15. EAF Quantum.

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