Global Critical Minerals Market - 2025-2033

Global critical minerals market size reached US$ 328.19 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$ 586.63 billion by 2032, growing with a CAGR of 7.53% during the forecast period 2025-2032.

The global critical minerals market is experiencing unprecedented growth, primarily driven by the accelerating transition to clean energy technologies. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the market size of key energy transition minerals doubled over the past five years, aligning closely with the market size for iron ore mining. This surge is largely attributed to the tripling of lithium demand, a 70% increase in cobalt demand, and a 40% rise in nickel demand between 2017 and 2022, with clean energy applications accounting for significant portions of this demand.

In India, the government's focus on critical minerals has intensified, with the total number of projects rising from 59 in 2020 to 123 in 2023. The Economic Survey highlights the geographical concentration of these minerals as a significant constraint, noting that China dominates the processing of several key minerals, including 79% of graphite and 60% of rare earth elements. This concentration poses challenges for countries like India in securing a stable supply chain for critical minerals essential for renewable energy and battery storage technologies.

Critical Minerals Market Trend

A notable trend in the critical minerals market is the increasing investment in mineral development, which witnessed a 30% rise in 2022 following a 20% increase in 2021. Lithium saw the sharpest investment increase at 50%, followed by copper and nickel. This investment surge is a response to the soaring demand for minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper, driven by the deployment of clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, wind turbines, and solar panels.

Dynamics

Rising Demand for Energy Transition Technologies (EVs and Renewables)

The rising demand for energy transition technologies, such as electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy systems, is significantly driving the critical minerals market. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), mineral demand for clean energy technologies is projected to nearly quadruple by 2040, reaching close to 40 million tonnes annually.

In the scenario, lithium demand is expected to increase ninefold, while copper demand will see the largest absolute growth due to its essential role in electrification. Currently, clean energy applications account for over 40% of total demand for copper and rare earth elements, 60–70% for nickel and cobalt, and nearly 90% for lithium.

Geopolitical Risks and Supply Chain Concentration

Geopolitical risks and supply chain concentration are significant constraints on the critical minerals market. China dominates the processing of key minerals, refining 70% of the world's cobalt and nearly 60% of lithium and manganese, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo supplies 70% of global cobalt. This heavy reliance on a few countries makes the supply chain vulnerable to disruptions from export restrictions, political instability, and market manipulation, posing challenges to the global energy transition.

Segment Analysis

The global critical minerals market is segmented based on mineral type, extraction method, application and region.

Copper Segment Driving Critical Minerals Market

Copper is emerging as a pivotal force in the global critical minerals market, primarily due to its indispensable role in the clean energy transition. In India, the demand for copper is escalating, driven by the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicle (EV) production. Despite achieving a record production of 555,000 tonnes in FY2023, India still imported 181,000 tonnes to meet its domestic needs, underscoring a significant supply-demand gap.

Globally, the demand for copper is projected to rise substantially. A study by S&P Global forecasts that global copper demand will increase from 25 million metric tons in 2022 to 53 million metric tons by 2050, driven by its extensive use in renewable energy systems and electric vehicles. These initiatives highlight copper's central role in achieving global sustainability goals and the importance of securing its supply chain.

Geographical Penetration

Demand for Critical Minerals in North America

The demand for critical minerals in North America is escalating, driven by the region's transition to clean energy and the growth of electric vehicle (EV) production. In the US, the Department of Energy has identified 50 critical minerals essential for the economy, with over 80% of the nation's supply sourced from foreign countries. Notably, the US imports more than half of its consumption for 43 of these minerals, highlighting a significant reliance on external sources. To address this dependency, initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law have been enacted to bolster domestic mining and processing capabilities.

Canada is also proactively enhancing its critical minerals sector. The Canadian government has launched the Critical Minerals Strategy, aiming to increase the supply of essential minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. This strategy includes investments in exploration, sustainable mining practices, and the development of processing facilities to support the growing demand from industries like EV manufacturing and renewable energy. Collaborative efforts between the US and Canada are further strengthening the North American supply chain for critical minerals, ensuring a more secure and sustainable resource base for the future.

Sustainability Analysis

The sustainability of the global critical minerals market is increasingly influenced by governmental initiatives aimed at reducing environmental impact and enhancing resource efficiency. In India, the government has launched the National Critical Minerals Mission, investing US$ 397.78 crore to recover critical minerals from mine tailings and overburden.

The initiative supports the country's renewable energy targets and aims to reduce dependence on imports of essential minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Similarly, the European Union's Critical Raw Materials Act seeks to establish a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials, reducing reliance on single-source suppliers and promoting recycling and circularity within the industry.

Despite these efforts, challenges persist due to the geographical concentration of critical mineral resources. For instance, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for approximately 70% of global cobalt production, while China dominates the processing of rare earth elements. This concentration poses risks to supply chain stability and underscores the need for diversified sourcing and international collaboration. To address these concerns, countries are exploring partnerships and investing in technologies to enhance domestic processing capabilities and promote sustainable mining practices.

Competitive Landscape

The major global players in the market include Albemarle Corporation, Livent Corporation, Lynas Rare Earths Limited, MP Materials Corp., China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co., Ltd., Glencore plc, Iluka Resources Limited, Rio Tinto Group, Pilbara Minerals Limited, and Canada Nickel Company Inc.

Key Developments

● In May 2025, NLC India Limited has announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding with IREL (India) Limited. This partnership aims to jointly pursue opportunities in the exploration, mining, and processing of critical minerals and rare earth elements across domestic and global markets. The collaboration supports the government’s push for strategic mineral security and self-reliance across high-growth sectors like defence, electronics, renewable energy, and electric vehicles.

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