Nordic Last Mile Delivery Market Outlook (2021-2031)

The Nordic last mile delivery market is projected to grow significantly, reaching an estimated US$ 4,959.60 million by 2031, up from US$ 3,053.90 million in 2024. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2% from 2025 to 2031.

Market Analysis:

Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—collectively known as the Nordic countries—are recognized for their high living standards, advanced infrastructure, and strong digital economies. Over the last decade, there has been substantial growth in e-commerce and digital services, resulting in increased demand for efficient and flexible last mile delivery solutions. The Nordic last mile delivery market is uniquely positioned due to its strong technological capabilities, urbanization trends, sustainability initiatives, and robust logistical infrastructure. These countries are among the world leaders in technological innovation, particularly in logistics and last mile delivery.

The widespread adoption of advanced technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), big data analytics, and route optimization software is transforming last mile delivery services. Route optimization helps improve delivery efficiency and reduce costs, while AI is utilized to forecast demand, manage inventory, and optimize delivery windows. Additionally, the integration of IoT in delivery fleets enables real-time tracking, enhancing visibility and transparency for both delivery providers and consumers.

Market Segmentation Analysis

The analysis of the last mile delivery market is categorized by type, vehicle type, and end use.

By type, the market is divided into B2B (business-to-business) and B2C (business-to-consumer). In 2024, the B2C segment held a larger share of the market.

In terms of vehicle type, the market is categorized into motorcycles, commercial vehicles, drones, autonomous ground vehicles, and others. The commercial vehicle segment was the largest in 2024.

By end user, the market segments include groceries, home essentials/houseware, restaurant meals, clothing and apparel, consumer electronics, toys/hobbies/sporting goods, mass merchants, jewelry, specialty items, automotive parts and accessories, and others. The mass merchant segment commanded the largest market share in 2024.

Market OutlookNordic companies are leading the development of autonomous delivery solutions, such as drones and self-driving vehicles, which are expected to become more prevalent in the coming years. For instance, Sweden has been experimenting with various autonomous vehicle trials to explore their potential to improve last mile delivery efficiency.

Governments are encouraging the adoption of green logistics solutions through policies that promote investment in electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure and emissions-reduction targets for the transport sector. These sustainability efforts align with consumer preferences for environmentally responsible practices, thereby increasing the use of eco-friendly delivery methods.

As consumer expectations evolve, the demand for faster and more convenient delivery options is on the rise. Same-day and next-day deliveries are becoming standard, particularly in major urban areas where consumers expect quick access to a diverse range of products. E-commerce players, including global giants like Amazon and local retailers, are increasingly offering rapid delivery options to satisfy this growing demand.

Country Insights

Geographically, the Nordic last mile delivery market comprises Sweden, Denmark, Norway, and Finland. Denmark held the largest market share in 2023.

The last mile delivery market in Denmark has experienced notable growth, fueled by advancements in e-commerce, changing consumer expectations, and technological innovations. Danish consumers now have high expectations for delivery services, including speed, flexibility, and transparency. Many expect same-day or next-day deliveries as standard offerings, alongside real-time tracking and eco-friendly delivery alternatives.

To meet these demands, many retailers and logistics providers in Denmark are investing in systems capable of accommodating faster delivery times. Collaborations between e-commerce giants and local retailers with last mile delivery service providers are increasingly common to facilitate quick turnaround times. As urban centers like Copenhagen see a concentration of e-commerce demand, logistics infrastructure is under strain. To address this, micro-fulfillment centers (MFCs) are emerging as an effective solution. These small, strategically located warehouses store inventory close to consumers, helping to enhance delivery efficiency. The emergence of these facilities is assisting businesses in reducing the distance and time required to deliver goods to customers in urban areas.

Key Players

Key players in the market include Amazon Logistics, UPS, FedEx, DHL, Postmates (Uber Eats), XPO Logistics, Instacart, Geodis, Gati Ltd, and Deliveroo, among others. These companies are adopting various strategies, such as expansion, product innovation, and mergers and acquisitions, to offer innovative products to their consumers and increase their market share. Show more