United States Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030

The United States boasts the largest oil refining capacity globally, with the Gulf Coast region standing as the principal refining hub. This area houses some of the most advanced and expansive refineries worldwide, operated predominantly by integrated oil majors such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Marathon Petroleum. These companies run complex facilities capable of processing a broad spectrum of crude oils, ranging from light sweet to heavy sour grades. Over the past decade, the U.S. refining sector has undergone transformative changes driven primarily by the shale oil boom that surged production in key basins like the Permian, Bakken, and Eagle Ford. This increase in domestic crude supply has shifted the U.S. towards a more energy-independent stance, significantly reducing the need for crude imports. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy, serves as a critical buffer to manage supply disruptions and stabilize markets. Besides the Gulf Coast, regions like the Midwest and West Coast also contribute to refining capacity but at smaller scales and with different crude input profiles. The Gulf Coast’s strategic location near major ports on the Gulf of Mexico facilitates large export volumes to Latin America, Asia, and Europe, reinforcing the U.S. as a global refined product supplier. Refining infrastructure in the U.S. is highly sophisticated, incorporating advanced technology and substantial integration with petrochemical facilities, which enhances product yield and quality. In 2024, the three largest refiners in the United States Marathon, Valero, and ExxonMobil all reported increases in capacity compared with 2023. Phillips 66, the fourth-largest U.S. refiner, reduced capacity last year. PBF Energy overtook Chevron to become the fifth-largest U.S. refiner by portfolio capacity.

According to the research report ""United States Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030,"" published by Bonafide Research, the United States Oil Refining market is expected to reach a market size of more than USD 735.23 Billion by 2030. Ongoing investments are heavily directed toward clean fuel technologies to meet increasingly stringent environmental regulations, including the Environmental Protection Agency’s Tier 3 fuel standards, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), and the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2). These policies promote the adoption of lower sulfur fuels, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Many refiners are actively retrofitting existing plants to produce renewable diesel and SAF, supporting decarbonization efforts within transportation sectors. In November 2023, EcoRefine, a leading refining corporation, launched a comprehensive sustainability initiative to demonstrate its commitment to environmental responsibility and regulatory compliance. The initiative entails implementing environmentally friendly practices, strict emission control measures, and investing in renewable energy integration throughout its refining operations. EcoRefine's commitment to sustainability reflects the growing importance of environmental stewardship in the United States Oil Refining Market, demonstrating a commitment to both ethical practices and regulatory compliance. In January 2024, ExxonMobil and SABIC announced a strategic collaboration to build a new crude-to-chemicals complex in San Patricio, Texas. This joint venture aims to convert 1 million tons per year of crude oil into ethylene and other chemical products, marking a significant expansion in the market's chemical segment (ExxonMobil press release, 2024). In April 2025, Valero Energy completed the acquisition of Diamond Shamrock's refining and marketing business for USD 1.1 billion. This strategic move strengthens Valero's market position and expands its refining capacity by approximately 100,000 barrels per day (Valero Energy press release, 2025).

Gasoline consumption in the United States remains significant, though it faces gradual pressure from increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption, which reduced gasoline demand growth in urban areas but keeps steady in suburban and rural regions. The US light-duty vehicle fleet is large and heavily gasoline-dependent, but EV sales rose to nearly 9% of new vehicle sales in 2024, moderating gasoline volume growth. Diesel fuel maintains a dominant role in freight and logistics, powering the nation’s extensive truck and heavy-duty vehicle network critical for supply chains. Jet fuel demand is recovering strongly, following a pandemic dip, supported by growing commercial aviation traffic centered around major hubs like Atlanta, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Chicago O’Hare. Fuel oil consumption has declined sharply, influenced by IMO 2020 regulations which capped sulfur content, leading to a shift toward very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for marine bunkering. Asphalt demand remains robust due to federal and state infrastructure investments supporting road repair and construction projects, while lubricants are widely used in both heavy industry and transportation sectors. LPG consumption is steady, primarily in rural residential heating and propane-based industrial applications such as chemical processing and agriculture, especially in regions lacking natural gas infrastructure. The United States' diverse fuel consumption profile reflects ongoing shifts driven by environmental policies, technology adoption, and infrastructure needs, maintaining a balance between traditional hydrocarbon fuels and emerging cleaner energy vectors.

Road transportation continues to dominate refined fuel consumption in the United States, accounting for the majority of gasoline and diesel use, as personal vehicles and freight trucks form the backbone of domestic mobility and goods movement. The aviation sector is rebounding post-pandemic, with increased air travel boosting jet fuel demand across major hubs such as Atlanta, Los Angeles, and New York JFK. Marine bunkering activity is concentrated around Gulf Coast ports like Houston and New Orleans, which serve as key points for fuel distribution to shipping fleets operating in the Gulf of Mexico and beyond. Petrochemical complexes in regions such as the Gulf Coast rely heavily on refinery output, using naphtha and other intermediates as feedstocks for chemical production, underpinning the integrated refining-chemical industry nexus. Electricity generation accounts for a small but regionally important share of refined fuel consumption, particularly in Alaska where diesel and fuel oil serve as primary power sources due to limited grid infrastructure and renewable energy penetration. Agriculture uses diesel extensively for farm equipment and irrigation, while propane remains critical for crop drying and heating in colder farming regions. Rail and domestic waterways represent niche but consistent users of diesel and fuel oil, supporting freight transport in areas underserved by road networks. These end-use patterns illustrate the multifaceted demand for refined fuels shaped by geography, economic activity, and infrastructure availability.

Feedstock supply in the US refining sector is strongly influenced by the rise of light tight oil (LTO) from the Permian Basin, which dominates domestic crude output due to its high productivity and low production costs. The surge in shale gas production has increased the availability of natural gas liquids (NGLs) like ethane and propane, which are key feedstocks for LPG production and petrochemical plants. US refineries continue to import heavier crude grades, especially from Canada and Latin America, to blend with lighter domestic crude, optimizing refinery operations and product yields. California leads limited biomass blending efforts, with a focus on renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pilot projects driven by stringent state-level low-carbon fuel standards. Price volatility in global oil markets has forced US refiners to adjust feedstock slates dynamically, balancing economic and operational constraints while maintaining compliance with product specifications. Strategic feedstock flexibility remains crucial for US refiners to handle fluctuating crude qualities and evolving market demands. Refining margins and feedstock sourcing strategies reflect ongoing market uncertainty and policy-driven shifts toward cleaner fuels, shaping the complexity and adaptability of refinery inputs across the country.

The US refining landscape exhibits a high concentration of deep conversion refineries, particularly along the Gulf Coast, which possess complex configurations such as fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) and hydrocracking units to produce high-value fuels like gasoline and diesel. These refineries, including those in Texas and Louisiana, rank high on the Nelson Complexity Index, reflecting their advanced upgrading capabilities and capacity to process heavy sour crude blends. Midwestern refineries tend to be simpler topping or hydro-skimming types, serving more localized markets with less complex operations focused on lighter feedstocks and less intensive upgrading. Recent investments in refinery upgrades often involve adding cokers and hydrocracker units to enhance residue conversion and improve product quality. The green refinery trend is gaining momentum, with several facilities retrofitting units to enable renewable diesel production through hydrotreating bio-based feedstocks, as well as experimenting with SAF blending and carbon capture technologies. Environmental regulations and market demand are driving refiners to innovate, combining traditional hydrocarbon processing with emerging renewable fuel capabilities. These developments ensure the US refining sector remains competitive while navigating the energy transition and tightening emissions standards. The refinery complexity spectrum in the US illustrates a diversified approach balancing scale, technology, and feedstock flexibility across regions and refinery types.

Considered in this report
• Historic Year: 2019
• Base year: 2024
• Estimated year: 2025
• Forecast year: 2030

Aspects covered in this report
• Oil Refining Market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Fule Type
• Gasoline
• Diesel/Gasoil
• Jet Fuel
• LPG
• Fuel Oil
• Others (Lubricants, Asphalt)

By Application
• Road Transportation
• Aviation
• Marine Bunker
• Petrochemical Industry
• Residential & Commercial
• Electricity Generation
• Others (Rail & Domestic Waterways, Agriculture)

By Feedstock
• Crude Oil
• Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
• Biomass
• Others (Coal Tar, etc.)

By Complexity Type
• Topping
• Hydro-skimming
• Conversion
• Deep Conversion
• Others Show more