South Africa Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030

South Africa’s oil refining industry has undergone significant contraction over the past few years, shifting from a moderately self-sufficient refining economy to one increasingly reliant on fuel imports. As of 2024, the country has only two operational oil refineries Natref in Sasolburg operated jointly by Sasol and TotalEnergies and Astron Energy’s Cape Town refinery, which resumed operations in 2023 after a two-year shutdown following a 2020 explosion. These two facilities have a combined capacity of approximately 160,000 barrels per day, a sharp decline from earlier years when SAPREF (Durban) and Engen’s refinery were still active. The SAPREF refinery, jointly owned by Shell and BP, has been indefinitely shut since 2022 due to lack of investment clarity and political direction, and is now being considered for conversion into a fuel import terminal. Similarly, the Engen refinery in Durban ceased refining operations in 2023 and is also being transitioned into a terminal facility. Coastal cities like Durban and Cape Town continue to be refining hubs, although their future roles are increasingly focused on storage and import infrastructure. The South African government, through its Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE), has signaled intentions to enhance energy security by modernizing downstream operations and investing in strategic reserves, but high capital requirements and uncertain policy frameworks have delayed tangible progress. The country’s refining sector remains heavily dependent on crude oil imports, primarily from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Angola, which are processed locally or supplemented through product imports. Declining investment interest, ageing infrastructure, and strict global fuel standards such as Euro-VI and IMO 2020 have made many existing refineries unviable without significant upgrades. The absence of a national refinery expansion or modernization plan has widened South Africa’s fuel trade deficit, putting pressure on currency reserves and domestic supply reliability.

According to the research report ""South Africa Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030,"" published by Bonafide Research, the South Africa Oil Refining market is anticipated to grow at more than 5.07% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. In 2024, domestic fuel consumption stood at approximately 600,000 barrels per day, with more than 70% of demand met through imports, particularly diesel and gasoline from the Middle East and India. South Africa currently does not have any liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, but the government is looking to develop LNG infrastructure to diversify natural gas import supply and increase natural gas consumption. In January 2024, the government selected a consortium composed of Royal Vopak, a Dutch company, and state-owned Transnet Pipelines as the preferred bidder to develop and operate an LNG import terminal at the Port of Richards Bay. The proposed LNG import terminal, known as the Zululand Energy Terminal, is planned to be developed in two phases and provide a total capacity of 5 million metric tons per year (or about 240 Bcf per year) when fully completed. It will include a floating storage unit, LNG storage, and an onshore regasification system. The Royal Vopak consortium aims to bring the first phase online by 2027. The gradual closure of local refining assets like SAPREF and Engen has pushed up import costs, exposing the economy to external supply shocks and shipping bottlenecks. The refining sector also faces challenges from tightening air quality laws, carbon pricing proposals, and the global push for green fuels, with no concrete steps yet taken on biofuel blending or hydrogen co-processing. Moreover, product crack spreads have remained inconsistent, impacted by refinery shutdowns and high logistics costs.

Diesel remains the dominant refined fuel in South Africa, largely driven by its critical role in road freight, mining, and industrial sectors. The country’s extensive mining operations in platinum, gold, and coal rely heavily on diesel-powered machinery and logistics, sustaining steady demand. Gasoline consumption is concentrated in urban transport, with private vehicle ownership growing steadily in cities such as Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban. Despite global shifts towards alternative mobility, gasoline remains essential for daily commuting in these urban centers. Jet fuel demand is centered around major aviation hubs including OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg and Cape Town International Airport, supporting both domestic and international air traffic. The aviation sector is rebounding gradually, with increased flights and tourism activities boosting jet fuel consumption. Asphalt and lubricants maintain stable usage in road construction, infrastructure development, and industrial applications, reflecting ongoing government investments in infrastructure projects. LPG is gaining traction as a cleaner cooking fuel alternative in off-grid rural households, supported by government initiatives aiming to improve energy access in underdeveloped regions. LPG’s adoption is significant in areas lacking reliable electricity or piped gas, improving residential energy security. Fuel oil has a reduced but continuing presence mainly in power generation and some industrial uses. South Africa’s fuel consumption patterns reflect a blend of traditional demand sectors coupled with emerging shifts towards cleaner fuel usage in rural areas, with diesel and gasoline retaining their stronghold due to the country’s economic structure and transport needs.

Transport and logistics sectors drive the bulk of fuel consumption in South Africa, with diesel and gasoline underpinning road freight, passenger vehicles, and commercial logistics operations. The country’s road network is the primary mode of freight transportation, making diesel indispensable for trucks and delivery fleets. Marine fuel demand is focused on Durban and Cape Town, which are the largest port facilities, serving as regional bunkering hubs for commercial and shipping vessels. Aviation fuel consumption is concentrated at South Africa’s major international airports, facilitating both passenger and cargo traffic. The gradual recovery in air travel post-pandemic has revitalized jet fuel demand. LPG use is primarily seen in rural households as a cleaner alternative to biomass and traditional fuels, aligning with national programs aimed at energy access and reduced indoor air pollution. The petrochemical industry in South Africa is less developed compared to other regions, with limited integration between refining and chemical production, focusing mainly on synthetic fuels from coal and gas at Sasol facilities. Electricity generation accounts for a smaller share of refined fuel consumption, primarily during periods of grid instability and load-shedding. Diesel generators are commonly used by industries, hospitals, data centers, and large residential complexes to ensure continuous power supply. This backup fuel demand fluctuates based on Eskom’s supply reliability. In the others segment, diesel supports agricultural activities such as irrigation, tilling, and harvesting in farming regions like Free State and Mpumalanga. Rail transportation, operated by Transnet Freight Rail, continues to rely partly on diesel locomotives for bulk cargo movement despite gradual electrification. Domestic waterway transport remains limited but includes minor fuel use by small vessels operating in rivers and inland lakes.

South Africa’s refinery feedstock dynamics have historically relied on imported crude oil, predominantly from Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC nations, reflecting the country’s limited domestic crude production. The reliance on seaborne imports exposes refineries to global supply disruptions and price volatility, influencing operational stability. Local crude production is minimal and centered around synthetic fuels produced by Sasol’s coal-to-liquid (CTL) and gas-to-liquid (GTL) technologies, which convert coal and natural gas into liquid hydrocarbons, supplementing traditional refining inputs. No significant biomass or alternative feedstock is currently utilized in refining operations, although there is growing interest in sustainable fuel development aligned with global decarbonization trends. Crude supply management remains a challenge due to geopolitical factors, fluctuating international oil markets, and the logistical complexity of ensuring uninterrupted feedstock flow to inland and coastal refineries. The refining sector continues to adapt feedstock sourcing strategies to balance cost efficiency with supply security, maintaining production while exploring diversification opportunities. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are used on a limited scale in refining and downstream blending, sourced both locally and through imports, but remain secondary to crude oil and synthetic feedstocks. Their role is more prominent in the petrochemical sector and gas-based synthetic fuel operations. Biomass currently plays a negligible role in South Africa’s refining inputs, with no large-scale bio-refinery infrastructure or feedstock integration into mainstream refining. However, discussions around future use of bio-based inputs are gaining momentum under national energy transition goals. In the others category, coal tar and by-products from Sasol’s CTL process serve as alternative hydrocarbon sources, particularly in the production of niche chemicals and industrial products. These feedstocks offer flexibility in domestic supply chains but are constrained by environmental concerns and limited scalability.

South Africa’s refining infrastructure features a mix of basic and moderately complex facilities, with limited presence of high-conversion units. Topping refineries are rare and contribute minimally to national output, mainly offering basic atmospheric distillation without upgrading capacity. These setups are often used in small-scale or temporary refining operations. Hydro-skimming refineries such as SAPREF and Engen, both located along the coast, previously played a central role in processing imported crude oil. These plants used simple distillation with light upgrading units like catalytic reformers but lacked deeper conversion technologies. Environmental regulations and rising operational costs led to their closure or suspension in recent years. Conversion refineries hold a key position in the current landscape. The Natref refinery, co-owned by Sasol and TotalEnergies, is a conversion-type inland facility that processes imported crude and integrates reforming and hydrotreating units. It serves inland fuel markets with a relatively balanced output of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Deep conversion capacity remains absent in South Africa. No operating refinery uses high-complexity units such as delayed cokers or hydrocrackers to process heavier crude grades. However, Astron Energy’s ongoing upgrades at the Cape Town refinery aim to improve refining depth, including the addition of desulfurization units to meet new fuel standards. In the others category, Sasol’s Secunda facility operates as a synthetic fuels complex based on coal-to-liquid (CTL) and gas-to-liquid (GTL) technologies. It does not follow the traditional refining model but plays a major role in national fuel supply by converting coal and gas into liquid fuels and chemicals.

Considered in this report
• Historic Year: 2019
• Base year: 2024
• Estimated year: 2025
• Forecast year: 2030

Aspects covered in this report
• Oil Refining Market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Fule Type
• Gasoline
• Diesel/Gasoil
• Jet Fuel
• LPG
• Fuel Oil
• Others (Lubricants, Asphalt)

By Application
• Road Transportation
• Aviation
• Marine Bunker
• Petrochemical Industry
• Residential & Commercial
• Electricity Generation
• Others (Rail & Domestic Waterways, Agriculture)

By Feedstock
• Crude Oil
• Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
• Biomass
• Others (Coal Tar, etc.)

By Complexity Type
• Topping
• Hydro-skimming
• Conversion
• Deep Conversion
• Others Show more