Mexico Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030

Mexico’s oil refining market is predominantly controlled by PEMEX, the state-owned oil company that manages the country’s entire refining infrastructure. The refining network consists of six major refineries, including Salina Cruz, Tula, Cadereyta, Salamanca, Minatitlán, and Madero. These refineries vary in complexity and capacity but have historically faced challenges such as frequent underutilization, maintenance backlogs, and operational inefficiencies. Due to limited domestic refining output and disruptions, Mexico has maintained a heavy reliance on imported refined petroleum products, particularly gasoline and diesel, to meet national demand. This dependency has underscored the government’s strategic goal to increase energy sovereignty and reduce imports. A significant development in this effort is the Dos Bocas refinery, inaugurated in 2022, which represents the country’s first new refinery in over four decades and is expected to add roughly 340,000 barrels per day of capacity once fully operational. The refinery is designed to process heavy crude from Mexico’s own oil fields, supporting PEMEX’s objective to improve refining self-sufficiency. Despite these efforts, the refining sector continues to struggle with outdated infrastructure and environmental compliance issues, including high greenhouse gas emissions. Regulatory policies have increasingly emphasized domestic refining capacity enhancement, operational efficiency improvements, and reducing reliance on imports to better control fuel supply chains and prices. PEMEX continues to prioritize modernization and expansion projects to align with national energy goals and support Mexico’s broader energy transition. High sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) remains an output challenge due to limited upgrading units, but strategic upgrades like the Tula coker unit are expected to partially mitigate this. Meanwhile, refinery margins remain sensitive to crude slate variability and global pricing volatility, impacting PEMEX’s operational economics amid its heavy debt burden.

According to the research report, ""Mexico Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030,"" published by Bonafide Research, the Mexico Oil Refining market is anticipated to add to more than USD 9.35 Billion by 2025–30. Mexico’s oil refining market is anchored by a network of six state-owned refineries operated by PEMEX, with a combined nameplate capacity of 1.6 million barrels per day, though actual utilization has historically remained below 50% due to frequent outages, underinvestment, and deferred maintenance. In 2023, the average refinery throughput across the system covering facilities in Salina Cruz, Tula, Cadereyta, Minatitlán, Madero, and Salamanca stood around 800,000 barrels per day, showing slight improvement from prior years due to incremental rehabilitation projects. The ongoing Dos Bocas refinery project in Paraíso, Tabasco, designed for 340,000 barrels per day, is expected to reshape domestic refining output, targeting increased production of low-sulfur gasoline and ultra-low-sulfur diesel. This project is part of Mexico’s broader strategy under the Plan de Negocios de Pemex 2023–2027, which emphasizes reducing dependence on refined fuel imports, currently covering over 60% of national gasoline consumption. To address refining inefficiencies, PEMEX has invested in sulfur recovery units (SRUs), naphtha hydrotreaters, and desulfurization systems across existing refineries, particularly at Tula and Salina Cruz, aiming to meet the Mexican environmental norm NOM-086-SEMARNAT-SENER-SCFI-2011, which mandates ultra-low sulfur fuel standards. The sector remains heavily centralized, with PEMEX handling over 95% of crude processing, and limited participation from private entities. Most refined products are distributed through a logistics network comprising pipelines, truck fleets, rail terminals, and marine ports, although logistical bottlenecks especially at Pajaritos and Tuxpan continue to affect product movement.

In Mexico, gasoline consumption is predominantly driven by private vehicle use across urban centers such as Mexico City (CDMX), Guadalajara, and Monterrey. The growth in vehicle ownership, fueled by urbanization and rising middle-class incomes, maintains gasoline demand as a key segment. Diesel fuel sees substantial consumption in logistics, freight transport, and agricultural machinery, especially in rural and farming-intensive states like Veracruz and Sinaloa. Jet fuel demand remains steady at major international airports, including Mexico City International Airport and Cancun, supported by tourism and increasing air travel connectivity. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, aviation fuel consumption has rebounded with the recovery of domestic and international flights. Fuel oil usage in Mexico is primarily concentrated in electricity generation, where Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) operates several thermoelectric plants relying on fuel oil as a backup or primary source, particularly in regions with limited access to natural gas. Asphalt demand supports Mexico’s extensive road infrastructure development programs, reflecting ongoing public and private investments to improve highway networks and urban roads. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is widely used in residential cooking and heating, particularly in rural and suburban areas where natural gas pipeline access is limited. PEMEX, the state-owned oil company, remains the principal supplier of LPG, processing natural gas liquids (NGLs) extracted from its crude production. LPG penetration has expanded through government programs targeting energy access for low-income households. These diverse fuel type consumption patterns reflect Mexico’s mixed energy profile balancing traditional fossil fuels with gradual shifts toward cleaner fuels and infrastructure modernization.

Road transportation dominates refined fuel consumption in Mexico, accounting for the majority of gasoline and diesel use. Passenger vehicles, commercial trucks, and public buses form the backbone of fuel demand, influenced by urban population growth and increased freight transport needs. Aviation fuel demand is strongly tied to Mexico’s vibrant tourism industry, with airports like Cancun and Mexico City serving as major nodes for domestic and international travel, sustaining jet fuel consumption even amid global volatility. Marine bunkering activity is concentrated along the Gulf Coast and in coastal states such as Veracruz and Yucatán, where ports facilitate domestic shipping and international trade. These marine fuels are gradually shifting toward low-sulfur variants to comply with IMO 2020 sulfur regulations, with some exploration into LNG bunkering emerging in larger ports. The petrochemical industry, supplied predominantly by PEMEX refinery complexes in Tula and Salina Cruz, depends on refinery outputs for feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gases. LPG is a vital energy source for rural households, offering an alternative to biomass and electricity in regions with limited infrastructure. Diesel consumption supports farming equipment and rail transport, particularly important for Mexico’s agricultural exports and freight corridors. These application trends reflect Mexico’s economic diversity, with transportation and petrochemicals as leading drivers of refined fuel demand, while residential energy and marine sectors contribute to steady consumption patterns amid regulatory and market changes.

Mexico’s refining sector predominantly uses heavy Maya crude oil as its primary feedstock, reflecting the country’s significant heavy crude reserves in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore fields. Maya crude, characterized by high sulfur and viscosity, requires complex refining processes to produce cleaner fuels and meet regulatory standards. To balance feedstock quality, some light crude imports from the United States Gulf Coast complement the heavier domestic supplies, helping refineries optimize product yields and quality. PEMEX operates several natural gas liquids (NGL) processing facilities that extract propane, butane, and ethane from natural gas streams, providing feedstock for LPG production and petrochemical inputs. The use of alternative or renewable feedstocks remains very limited, with pilot projects for biofuel blending and co-processing at early stages but not yet significant in the refinery feed mix. Feedstock sourcing and pricing are subject to volatility driven by global crude oil markets, OPEC+ production decisions, and Mexico’s evolving energy policies. Supply chain constraints and infrastructure limitations occasionally impact feedstock availability, especially during maintenance shutdowns or geopolitical disruptions. Efforts to diversify feedstock sources align with the government's goal to increase refinery self-sufficiency and reduce dependence on imports. Overall, the feedstock profile reflects a heavy crude dominant system facing challenges from environmental regulations and operational modernization needs.

Mexico’s refining infrastructure is largely composed of older refineries with topping and hydro-skimming configurations, reflecting limited upgrading capacity and a lower Nelson Complexity Index compared to refineries in the United States or Europe. Facilities such as the Salamanca and Tula refineries primarily perform distillation and basic hydrotreating, producing middle distillates but lacking deep conversion capabilities required for maximizing gasoline and diesel yields from heavy crude. Recent years have seen focused upgrade programs targeting conversion units at refineries like Tula and Salina Cruz, which include delayed coking and catalytic cracking additions to improve product slate and compliance with cleaner fuel mandates. The Dos Bocas refinery, commissioned in 2022, represents a major leap as Mexico’s only high-complexity refinery, designed to process heavy crude with extensive residue upgrading and high conversion rates. However, this project has faced delays and execution challenges, including environmental compliance scrutiny and budget overruns, impacting the pace of modernization efforts. Environmental regulations are driving investments in sulfur reduction technologies and emissions controls across all facilities. Despite these challenges, there is growing interest in incorporating green refinery concepts, such as renewable diesel production and carbon capture initiatives, although practical adoption remains in early stages. The complexity profile highlights Mexico’s ongoing transition from basic refining toward more sophisticated, environmentally compliant operations aimed at meeting domestic fuel demand and reducing import reliance.

Considered in this report
• Historic Year: 2019
• Base year: 2024
• Estimated year: 2025
• Forecast year: 2030

Aspects covered in this report
• Oil Refining Market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Fule Type
• Gasoline
• Diesel/Gasoil
• Jet Fuel
• LPG
• Fuel Oil
• Others (Lubricants, Asphalt)

By Application
• Road Transportation
• Aviation
• Marine Bunker
• Petrochemical Industry
• Residential & Commercial
• Electricity Generation
• Others (Rail & Domestic Waterways, Agriculture)

By Feedstock
• Crude Oil
• Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
• Biomass
• Others (Coal Tar, etc.)

By Complexity Type
• Topping
• Hydro-skimming
• Conversion
• Deep Conversion
• Others Show more