Canada Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030

Canada’s oil refining industry is geographically split primarily between the eastern provinces of Ontario and Quebec, and the western province of Alberta, reflecting the country’s vast crude production and consumption patterns. Eastern refineries, such as those operated by Irving Oil in Saint John, New Brunswick, and Shell Canada in Montreal, focus on serving dense population centers and export markets along the Atlantic Coast and northeastern U.S. In the west, Alberta hosts major refineries, including Suncor Energy’s Edmonton facility and Imperial Oil’s Strathcona refinery, closely integrated with the province’s oil sands production. This integration allows Alberta refineries to process heavy, bitumen-derived crude efficiently, using complex upgrading technologies to produce synthetic crude and refined fuels. Canada’s refining infrastructure is heavily reliant on pipelines to transport crude oil across provinces and to export terminals, with key pipelines including Enbridge and Trans Mountain, which also influence crude feedstock availability and refinery throughput. Regulatory frameworks, such as the federal Clean Fuel Regulations introduced in 2022, mandate reductions in carbon intensity of fuels, driving refiners toward cleaner production technologies and alternative fuels. Environmental standards vary by province but collectively encourage investments in emissions control and renewable fuel blending. Canadian refineries also maintain strong export positioning, supplying refined products to the U.S. Northeast and Pacific Rim markets. The refining network reflects a balance between processing capacity for domestic demand and export competitiveness, with key players like Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Irving Oil shaping market dynamics through ongoing modernization and capacity optimization projects.

According to the research report ""Canada Oil Refining Market Overview, 2030,"" published by Bonafide Research, the Canada Oil Refining market is anticipated to grow at more than 5.01% CAGR from 2025 to 2030. Canada's oil refining sector consists of 15 refineries with a total nameplate capacity of around 2 million barrels per day, distributed unevenly across the country. The highest concentration of refining capacity lies in Alberta, Ontario, and Québec, with notable facilities such as Imperial Oil’s Strathcona refinery, Suncor’s Edmonton refinery, Shell’s Scotford complex, and Irving Oil’s Saint John refinery, which alone accounts for nearly 320,000 barrels per day and is the largest in Canada. Average utilization rates typically range between 80% and 90%, with fluctuations caused by crude supply dynamics, planned maintenance, and unexpected outages. Western Canadian refineries, located closer to heavy oil sources like the Athabasca oil sands, are configured to handle heavier crude blends, whereas Eastern refineries often process imported light and medium crude sourced via Atlantic shipments. The Line 3 Replacement Program and Trans Mountain Expansion aim to stabilize crude logistics and improve supply to inland facilities. In addition, Alberta’s downstream operations are supported by government-sponsored bitumen upgrading programs to add value locally rather than exporting raw crude. Diesel fuel remains a cornerstone product in Prairie provinces, driven by demand from agriculture, long-haul trucking, and mining. Meanwhile, gasoline consumption trends are softening, especially in urban Ontario and British Columbia, where provincial mandates like CleanBC and Ontario's EV incentive program are influencing fuel switching. Environmental costs tied to carbon pricing through Canada’s Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) or provincial carbon levies are increasingly factored into refinery economics. Refineries in Québec, such as Suncor Montréal, are upgrading hydrotreating capacity to comply with renewable content and sulfur-reduction targets.

In Canada, gasoline and diesel continue to be the primary fuels for long-distance road transportation, especially across vast provinces like Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta, where personal vehicles and freight trucks drive fuel demand. Diesel is heavily used in logistics and heavy-duty transport, reflecting the country's expansive geography and reliance on road freight. Jet fuel consumption is concentrated around major airport hubs such as Toronto Pearson International and Vancouver International, which serve as primary gateways for both domestic and international air travel. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on aviation, recovery trends are visible as passenger volumes gradually increase. Fuel oil usage has steadily declined due to stricter environmental regulations and a shift away from heavy fuel oils in power generation and industrial sectors. However, demand for asphalt remains stable, driven by ongoing infrastructure projects and road construction programs at provincial and federal levels. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), derived mainly from natural gas liquids (NGL) processing in Alberta, is widely used for residential heating, especially in rural and colder regions where natural gas pipelines are unavailable. LPG also finds industrial applications in agriculture and manufacturing. The Canadian market benefits from a well-established NGL processing sector that supplies clean-burning fuels, helping reduce emissions. The fuel mix reflects Canada's diverse geography and economic activities, balancing traditional fuel demands with environmental and regulatory pressures aimed at cleaner energy consumption.

Transportation fuels dominate refined product consumption in Canada, encompassing passenger vehicles, commercial trucking, and public transit systems. The country’s extensive road network and remote communities heavily depend on gasoline and diesel fuels. Marine bunkering activities are significant on the East Coast, especially in ports like Halifax and along the Great Lakes, supporting domestic and international shipping. These ports are increasingly transitioning to low-sulfur fuels to comply with IMO 2020 regulations, with ongoing trials for LNG bunkering as part of cleaner marine fuel adoption. Aviation fuel demand is closely linked to the recovery of international and domestic air travel, with major airports in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal playing critical roles in the sector’s rebound after pandemic disruptions. Petrochemical feedstock demand is centered primarily in Alberta’s industrial zones, where refinery outputs supply ethane and naphtha for chemical manufacturing, supporting plastics and synthetic products industries. Residential and commercial LPG use remains vital, particularly in colder rural regions where LPG serves as the primary heating fuel, offering a reliable alternative to natural gas. Electricity generation from refined fuels is minimal but maintained in off-grid and remote northern communities reliant on diesel generators. Agriculture and railways represent niche but steady consumers of diesel fuel, particularly in western provinces, where farming and freight railroads play crucial roles in the economy. These diversified applications reflect Canada's balanced energy use amid evolving sustainability priorities.

Canada’s refining industry primarily processes heavy crude oil sourced from its vast oil sands reserves, particularly in Alberta. Bitumen, the dense and viscous form of crude oil extracted from these sands, forms the backbone of the country’s feedstock supply, but it requires extensive upgrading and dilution for pipeline transport and refinery processing. Diluted bitumen (dilbit), a blend of bitumen and lighter hydrocarbons, presents operational challenges, including pipeline corrosion concerns and complexity in refinery processing. Eastern provinces like Quebec and Ontario compensate for limited local heavy crude with imports of lighter, sweet crude oils, primarily from the U.S. Gulf Coast and other international suppliers, to balance refinery feedstock quality and meet product specifications. Local natural gas liquids (NGLs) sourced from associated gas production are processed domestically to produce propane, butane, and ethane, which are vital for residential fuel use and petrochemical feedstock. Despite increasing interest in renewable fuels and biomass blending, their use remains limited in Canada’s refining feedstock slate, with most refineries focused on optimizing conventional crude processing. However, pilot programs for co-processing renewable feedstocks and bio-crudes have begun at select facilities, aligning with broader carbon reduction and sustainability goals. Price volatility in crude markets, driven by global geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production adjustments, continues to affect feedstock sourcing decisions. The feedstock strategies balance heavy oil dominance with lighter imports and emerging bio-feedstock trials to sustain refinery operations amid environmental regulations.

Canada’s refining sector includes moderate to high complexity refineries primarily concentrated in Alberta and Quebec. The Alberta refineries, including facilities in Edmonton and Redwater, operate with upgraded coking and hydrocracking units designed to handle heavy crude bitumen and convert it into lighter, higher-value products such as gasoline and diesel. The Irving Oil refinery in Saint John, New Brunswick, stands as Canada’s largest refinery and features advanced desulfurization units and delayed coking technology, enabling the processing of both heavy and medium crude blends efficiently. Recent investments in refinery upgrades have focused on expanding capacity for residue upgrading and reducing sulfur content to meet stringent environmental standards. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiatives have been integrated into refinery operations as part of national efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with pilot programs underway to capture CO2 from heavy oil processing. Co-processing trials involving renewable diesel and bio-feedstocks have also been initiated at select refineries, signaling a gradual shift toward green refinery technologies. Despite aging infrastructure challenges, ongoing modernization projects aim to enhance operational flexibility, feedstock diversity, and emissions performance. The combination of conventional upgrading technologies with emerging sustainability investments reflects the Canadian refining industry's adaptation to evolving market demands and regulatory frameworks.

Considered in this report
• Historic Year: 2019
• Base year: 2024
• Estimated year: 2025
• Forecast year: 2030

Aspects covered in this report
• Oil Refining Market with its value and forecast along with its segments
• Various drivers and challenges
• On-going trends and developments
• Top profiled companies
• Strategic recommendation

By Fule Type
• Gasoline
• Diesel/Gasoil
• Jet Fuel
• LPG
• Fuel Oil
• Others (Lubricants, Asphalt)

By Application
• Road Transportation
• Aviation
• Marine Bunker
• Petrochemical Industry
• Residential & Commercial
• Electricity Generation
• Others (Rail & Domestic Waterways, Agriculture)

By Feedstock
• Crude Oil
• Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
• Biomass
• Others (Coal Tar, etc.)

By Complexity Type
• Topping
• Hydro-skimming
• Conversion
• Deep Conversion
• Others Show more