Publisher: Oxford Economics Published: Last 3 Months Price: under 1000 -
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
... Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT industries will uphold strong tertiary ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific
... expand by just under 5% y/y (or 4.8% q/q annualised) in Q1, driven by resilient retail activity and sustained ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
... Bahrain's economy is set to accelerate in 2025, propelled by an oil sector recovery and the sustained ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
... Infrastructure investment, industrialisation, and agricultural development have sustained high growth ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Togo
... Sustaining this momentum will require economic diversification and investment in productivity-enhancing ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
... However, we think the government's ambitious approach raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania
... about the long-term repercussions, as many essential services rely heavily on foreign support to sustain ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Burkina Faso
... IMF support, favourable commodity price movements, and improved weather conditions are sustaining Burkina ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia
... We maintain our forecast that Indonesia's GDP will grow by 5% this year, sustaining its steady growth ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's economy gained 5.0% y/y in 2024, representing the strongest rebound since 2018. The services sector was the biggest contributor to 2024 growth (1.5ppts), followed by the manufacturing and construction sectors. We've maintained our 2025 GDP forecast of 3.8% y/y, but have revised d ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast Belgium's economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2026 as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.1ppt to 2%. Positive momentum in activity continued in January, suggesting domestic demand was strong. However, heightened global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Iraq to 1.2% to reflect the recalibration of our measurement scopes for Iraq's non-oil activities to better align with official data releases. Our upward revision was also driven by our better expectations for this year's oil production due t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
We’ve become more optimistic that Lebanon's economy will return to expansion this year and have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.6ppts to 1.4%. The election of Joseph Aoun as the new president in January and the formation of a new government after nearly three years under an interim admi ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Argentina by 0.3ppts to 3.9% but lowered our projection for 2026 by 0.5ppts to 2.6%. The 2025 revision reflects strong consumption momentum in Q1, while the 2026 cut is due to base effects. The threat of droughts due to the La Niña weather patte ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
We slightly revised our below-consensus growth forecast for Hong Kong down to 1.9%, following 2.5% export-driven growth last year. This revision reflects our assessment of the recent tenuous global trade environment. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic unchanged at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. However, we will likely upgrade our outlook, particularly over the medium term, in light of the nascent German fiscal stimulus. This is expected to generate both positive and negative spillovers f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Chile down by 0.1ppt to 2.4% y/y, driven by a downward revision to investment amid the global uncertainty. However, we believe the impact of the international outlook will be more pronounced next year, prompting a larger reduction in our 2026 forecast ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.4% this year, and 0.9% next. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflatio ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 1ppt to 3.3% to reflect our more optimistic outlooks on both oil production and non-oil sector growth. OPEC+'s announcement of an earlier-than-expected unwinding schedule of oil production cuts and the recent approval of Kuwait's de ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay down by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, while maintaining our estimate for next year at 2.3%, broadly in line with consensus. We expect domestic demand to strengthen, driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a n ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Italy by 0.5ppts to 0.4% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 0.7% in 2026. GDP was flat in Q4 2024, a touch lower than we expected and in line with the poor reading for Q3. We now assume the US will hit Europe with a 10% blanket tariff. Fiscal policy remains a drag, ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. This reflects our view that delays stemming from the presidential election re-run and a larger-than-expected deficit at the start of this year mean that the government will have to implement additional consolidation measures ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines
We forecast the Philippines' economy will expand by 6% y/y this year, following a 5.6% y/y increase in 2024, which is below the government's target of a 6%-6.5% GDP growth. Growth this year will be supported by more accommodative monetary policy and well-contained inflation. While the easing ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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