Publisher: Oxford Economics Published: Last 3 Months-
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Côte d'Ivoire
... Concurrently, sustained expansions in trade and the financial and ICT industries will uphold strong tertiary ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
... Despite the weak start, we continue to see sustained growth across non-energy sectors and project an ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Tanzania
... about the long-term repercussions, as many essential services rely heavily on foreign support to sustain ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kenya
... forecast the Kenyan economy to expand by 4.8% in 2025 due to a recovery in the industrial sector and sustained ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Chile
We have nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts to 2.5% y/y after stronger-than-expected December activity. Recent data suggest an improving consumer outlook, as spending appears to have remained resilient towards the end of 2024, despite large rises in regulated electricity prices. Inflat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Netherlands
We forecast the Dutch economy will grow by 1.4% this year, and 0.9% next. The impact of tight monetary policy is set to unwind, while strong wage growth alongside lower inflation will help drive the recovery in consumption. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflatio ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia at 2.1%, as Q4 data was in line with our forecast, but we see some upside risks to consumption from the significant minimum wage increase. Investment and exports should continue their strong momentum and drive growth in the coming quarters. Inflation ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Italy
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Italy by 0.5ppts to 0.4% in 2025 and by 0.2ppts to 0.7% in 2026. GDP was flat in Q4 2024, a touch lower than we expected and in line with the poor reading for Q3. We now assume the US will hit Europe with a 10% blanket tariff. Fiscal policy remains a drag, ... Read More
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Macro - Weekly Briefings - US
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Brazil
The sharp activity contraction in December 2024 forced us to pull our expectations of an economic slowdown forward and cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Brazil by 0.6ppts to 1.2%. A smaller carryover from 2024, a much tighter monetary policy stance, and the beginning of a deterioration in labour ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Germany
We've cut our GDP growth forecasts for Germany by 0.3ppts to 0.1% in 2025 and by 0.4ppts to 0.8% in 2026. US tariffs and the EU's response will lower foreign demand, raise uncertainty, and make inflation stickier, which will further delay the industrial recovery, undermine corporate capex, a ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Argentina
Our GDP growth forecasts for Argentina are unchanged at a below-consensus 3.6% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. The strong recovery in Q3 2024 and resilience in Q4 2024 suggest a slowdown in the current quarter (0.0% q/q). The RIGI scheme to attract investment adds an upside risk to growth, while the La ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic by 0.1ppt to 2.3% in 2025. We expect reciprocal blanket 10% tariffs between the US and the EU from Q2. These will have only minor impact on growth in 2025, as they will be offset by looser monetary policy and a pause in fiscal consolid ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast the Belgian economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% next, as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflationa ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We have cut our GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.6%, due to a highly uncertain backdrop amid a potential trade war under Trump’s second term. Even though the direct impact of US tariffs should be relatively small, we consider that secondary effects such as lower global trade and less business con ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
We cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppt to 3.2%. Our 2026 call saw a stronger 0.4ppt cut to 3.4%. The economy ended last year on a strong note as the flash estimate for Q4 indicated growth at 1.3% q/q. While we expect the solid performance to continue, weak foreign demand and high i ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
In light of the latest events, we have increased our probability of a "bad" ceasefire for Ukraine – one that leaves Ukraine without strong security guarantees and vulnerable to future re-escalation from Russia – to 50% from 20% previously. Under this scenario, there is a short-term "p ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Japan
We've nudged down our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. We expect the economy will be supported by gradual improvements in consumption alongside real income gains, but weaker external demand will weigh on the growth. ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - Hong Kong SAR
After an export-driven outperformance in Q4, Hong Kong's economy is set to slow this year. We expect GDP growth to decelerate to 2.1% in 2025, from 2.6% last year. Risks to this outlook are evenly balanced. ... Read More
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Country Economic Forecast - Japan
We've nudged down our GDP growth forecasts for Japan by 0.1ppt to 1.1% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026. We expect the economy will be supported by gradual improvements in consumption alongside real income gains, but weaker external demand will weigh on the growth. ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Denmark
We raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Denmark by 0.9ppts to 3.3%. A strong end to 2024, driven by high pharmaceutical output, significantly lifts the annual growth forecast this year due to the strong carryover. However, our assessment weakened as US tariffs and the EU's response will impac ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
November activity data indicated economic activity in Brazil slowed significantly at the end of 2024, reinforcing our below-consensus GDP growth forecast of 1.8% for 2025. Monthly contractions in hard data indicators such as real retail sales, services revenue volumes, and industrial production sugg ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Asia Pacific - China
Recent policy headlines suggest strong top-down guidance towards further coordinated easing between various economic agents this year. This, alongside hints that authorities could shift towards a more supportive stance on private entrepreneurship, have rallied onshore markets, despite prior rounds ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - France
We continue to forecast France's GDP will grow by 0.8% in 2025, a slowdown from the estimated 1.1% expansion in 2024. GDP growth is expected to have been broadly flat during Q4 2024 and will take time to gain pace in 2025 given that sentiment remains subdued, making up for a weak start of the ye ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon
Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Lebanon We have kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Lebanon at 0.8%. The ceasefire deal signed between Israel and Hezbollah at the end of November has de-escalated the regional conflict. However, the truce remains vulnerable to violations, challenging planned i ... Read More
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