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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Benin
... Infrastructure investment, industrialisation, and agricultural development have sustained high growth ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Bulgaria
... However, we think the government's ambitious approach raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Belgium
We forecast Belgium's economy will expand by 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2026 as tight monetary policy unwinds and manufacturing recovers. However, tariffs and trade uncertainty will limit growth. We expect inflation will average 2.1% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with tariffs hindering the disinflat ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Colombia
We have lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Colombia by 0.1ppt to 2%. Positive momentum in activity continued in January, suggesting domestic demand was strong. However, heightened global economic uncertainty due to US tariffs and instability in the Middle East could cool investment. This comes ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Iraq to 1.2% to reflect the recalibration of our measurement scopes for Iraq's non-oil activities to better align with official data releases. Our upward revision was also driven by our better expectations for this year's oil production due t ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Czech Republic
We have kept our GDP growth forecast for the Czech Republic unchanged at 2.3% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. However, we will likely upgrade our outlook, particularly over the medium term, in light of the nascent German fiscal stimulus. This is expected to generate both positive and negative spillovers f ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - MENA
We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kuwait by 1ppt to 3.3% to reflect our more optimistic outlooks on both oil production and non-oil sector growth. OPEC+'s announcement of an earlier-than-expected unwinding schedule of oil production cuts and the recent approval of Kuwait's de ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Uruguay
We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay down by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, while maintaining our estimate for next year at 2.3%, broadly in line with consensus. We expect domestic demand to strengthen, driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a n ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. This reflects our view that delays stemming from the presidential election re-run and a larger-than-expected deficit at the start of this year mean that the government will have to implement additional consolidation measures ... Read More
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Macro - Country Economic Forecasts - Qatar
We have raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Qatar by 0.5ppts to 2.6% and continue to expect growth will pick up to 5% in 2026. The upgrade to our near-term outlook reflects better-than-expected growth at the end of 2024 and positive activity indicators since the start of this year. Meanwhile, bu ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Africa - Libya
Libya's oil output reached a decade-high of 1.31 million bpd in December 2024. That said, international oil prices are projected to be relatively flat over the next three years, leaving the government with limited growth prospects for oil-related revenues. However, the country has attracted inte ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
Despite Donald Trump's efforts, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive, with Russia so far rejecting the proposed 30-day partial ceasefire by making it conditional on sanctions relief. Even if achieved, this type of ceasefire would be largely symbolic. We therefore base our Ukrai ... Read More
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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Hungary
We've nudged up our GDP growth forecasts for Hungary by 0.1ppt to 1.6% for 2025 and 3.3% for 2026. Still, we think that looming US tariffs and weak external demand will weigh on growth in the near term. But the solid pre-electoral stimulus will support activity in Hungary later this year, and th ... Read More