The Grocery Retail Market in Nigeria

The Grocery Retail Market in Nigeria

This report analyzes the grocery retail market in Nigeria. It is the largest and, until 2015, the second fastest growing grocery retail market in Africa. This report gives in depth historic data and five year forecasts on the growth of the grocery retail market. The report is split into chapters looking at the changing retail landscape, the underlying market dynamics powering growth, the market size and the leading supermarket chains, and the future outlook – for supermarket retailing, online grocery retail and out-of-town grocery retail.

Despite its size, the Nigerian grocery retail market is among the most fragmented in Sub Saharan Africa. In a country of more than 180m people, the largest supermarket chain has just 34 stores. Few chains have branches in multiple cities. The traditional trade dominates retail. Although some international grocers have entered – notably Shoprite and Massmart – there are many more waiting in the wings who have expressed an intention to open stores in Nigeria.

Assess the key drivers of grocery retail market growth in Nigeria and their impact on spending
Quantify the size of the Nigerian grocery retail market and the role of modern trade in it
Identify the leading supermarket chains, the size of their networks and their position in the market
Understand the future of the grocery retail market and the factors that will shape market success
Forecast grocery retail spend through to 2020
By 2050, Nigeria’s population will have risen by two and a half times, from 183.5m people in 2015 to 440.4m. It will be, by far, the single largest market in Africa and either the third or fourth largest country in the world by population in 2050.
By 2025, it will have nearly twenty cities with populations over 1m people and by 2050 an additional 200m people will be living in urban areas, within easier reach of retailers and service providers.
Nigeria’s grocery market is more than double the size of the next largest grocery retail market in Africa (South Africa). Its rapid growth through to 2015 has made Nigeria the second fastest growing grocery retail market in Africa.
Despite this, the grocery retail landscape is extremely fragmented. The country’s biggest grocery retail chain by store numbers has just 34 branches. Those stores are almost all in Lagos.

While domestic retailers are growing, at least three further international retailers have are looking to enter the Nigerian market. Within the next 2-3 years we see acquisition as a gamechanger and potentially a major shake up in the grocery retail market landscape.

What are the key drivers of grocery retail market growth?
What is the size of the grocery retail market
Who are the leading supermarket chains?
Which factors will shape market success?
What are the implications for brand owners?
How will grocery retail spend growth through to 2020?


Introduction
Scope and definitions
Defining informal/formal and traditional/modern trade
The Changing Retail Landscape
The key drivers of changing consumer lifestyles
The impact of changing consumer lifestyles on the retail landscape
The process of transition towards formal and modern retail as economies grow
The impact of modernization on the retail landscape
Market Dynamics
Introduction
Economic growth
Income and GDP per capita
Governance and risk
Logistics landscape and capabilities
Population growth
Household size
Urbanization in Nigeria and its impact on retail
Key trends in urbanization in Nigeria
Grocery Retail in Nigeria
Introduction
Grocery retail market size
Grocery retail spend per capita
Leading supermarket chains
Shoprite Holdings
Addide
Massmart Holdings
Future Outlook and Grocery Retail Market Forecast
Market forecast
The development of supermarket retailing
Prospects for added value supermarket retailing
Prospects for forecourt and out of town retailing
Prospects for online retailing
Future outlook
About Trendtype
Table of Tables
GDP (Current $m), 2011-2015e
Key cities
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2011-2015
Grocery retail spend per capita ($), 2011-2015
Key players in grocery retailing
Shoprite key information
Addide key information
Massmart key information
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2016-2020
Key issues driving future competition
Households with a refrigerator (‘000 households), 2011-2015
Households with a car (‘000 households), 2011-2015
Population with internet access (m), 2010-2014
Table of Figures
Key drivers of changing consumer lifestyles
Six key outputs for retailers of changing consumer lifestyles
Five key stages of grocery retail sector development
GDP (Current $m), 2011-2015
GDP, PPP per capita (constant 2011 international $), 2010-2014
GNI per capita ($, Atlas Method), 2010-2014
World Governance Indicators, 2014
Risk factors, Q3 2015
Logistics Performance Index, 2014
Population (m people), 2005-2015
Population (m people), 2015-2050
Average household size (number of people), 2009-2015
Number of households (m), 2009-2015
Urbanization rate (%), 2015-2050
Size of the urban population (m people), 2015-2050
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2011-2015
Grocery retail spend per capita ($), 2011-2015
Shoprite geographic profile
Addide geographic profile
Massmart geographic profile
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2016-2020
Share of households owning a refrigerator (%), 2011-2015
Share of households owning a car (%), 2011-2015
Internet penetration (% population with internet access), 2010-2014

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