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The Future of the Grocery Retail Market in Zambia to 2021

The Future of the Grocery Retail Market in Zambia to 2021

This report provides in depth data on the grocery retail market in Zambia. It features historic data and five year forecasts for market value and per capita spend in the grocery market. Our data also includes the number of outlets in the store universe by channel and channel values for open market vendors, small stores and kiosks, medium stores, supermarkets, hypermarkets and forecourt retailers.

It also analyses the competitive landscape in Zambia with data on the leading domestic and international store networks. Trendtype's proprietary data supports a detailed analysis of the risks and market opportunity in Zambia and assesses its market attractiveness for retailers.

- Assess the key drivers of grocery retail market growth in Zambia
- Quantify the size of the grocery retail market with forecasts through to 2021
- Understand the size and structure of the store universe in Zambia
- Quantify sales by channel and the size of the modern and traditional channels
- Identify the leading domestic and international supermarket chains and the competitive landscape
- Analyse the market opportunity, attractiveness, risk factors and future outlook for Zambia

- What are the key drivers of the grocery retail market in Zambia?
- What is the market size and value of the grocery retail market?
- What is size and structure of the store universe?
- What is the value of each grocery retail channel?
- Who are the leading domestic and international supermarket chains?
- What are the winning strategies for success in Zambia?
- How attractive is Zambia as a grocery retail market compared to other countries in Africa and Southern Africa?
- How will grocery retail spend overall and per capita grow through to 2021?

- The surge in copper prices since 2002 has driven a transformation in the grocery retail sector in Zambia, especially outside Lusaka.
- However, Zambia's middle class remains both small and vulnerable to changes in commodity prices.
- We can also see this in demand: the grocery retail market has grown modestly in dollar terms since 2012, coinciding with falling copper prices.
- As the economy improves, leading retail chains - mostly from outside Zambia - are embarking on growth plans once more.
- We forecast substantially higher grocery retail market growth through to 2021, supporting those expansionist strategies.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market Size and Growth
General Market Dynamics
Chapter 1: COUNTRY PROFILE
Country Profile
Map and Major Cities
Population
Gross Domestic Product
Living Standards
Chapter 2: RISK AND BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Risk
How Easy is it to do Business?
Chapter 3: GROCERY RETAIL MARKET SIZE
Introduction
Grocery Market Size
Grocery Retail Spend Per Capita
Chapter 4: GROCERY RETAIL CHANNELS AND DISTRIBUTION
Channel Definitions
Traditional Channel Definitions
Modern Channel Definitions
Size of the Outlet Universe
Grocery Retail Sales by Channel
Modern vs. Traditional Trade
Chapter 5: LEADING GROCERY RETAILERS
Grocery Retail Competitive Landscape
Domestic Grocery Retailers
International Grocery Retailers
Chapter 6: GROCERY RETAIL MARKET ATTRACTIVENESS
Grocery Market Attractiveness
Chapter 7: GROCERY RETAIL MARKET FORECASTS
Grocery Sales Forecast
Grocery Retail Sales Per Capita Forecast
HOW TO CONTACT US
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Country Profile - Zambia, 2017
Figure 2: Map and Major Cities - Zambia
Figure 3: Population - Zambia (thousands of inhabitants), 2016-2021f
Figure 4: GDP - Zambia (current, $M), 2016-2021f)
Figure 5: Trendtype Living Standards Score - Zambia, 2015-2016
Figure 6: Trendtype Living Standards Score Heat Map - Southern Africa, 2015-2016
Figure 7: Country Risk Index - Zambia, Q2 2017
Figure 8: Country Risk Heat Map - Southern Africa, Q2 2017
Figure 9: Business Environment Index - Zambia, 2017
Figure 10: Ease of Doing Business - Africa, 2017
Figure 11: Logistics Performance Index - Africa, 2017
Figure 12: Competitiveness Index- Africa, 2017
Figure 13: Grocery Retail Market Development Model
Figure 14: Grocery Retail Sales - Zambia (current, $M), 2012-2016
Figure 15: Grocery Retail Sales - Zambia (current, ‎ZK) 2012-2016
Figure 16: Grocery Retail Sales per capita - Zambia (current, $M), 2012-2016
Figure 17: Grocery Retail Sales per capita Heat Map - Southern Africa, 2016
Figure 18: Traditional Channels Definitions
Figure 19: Modern Channels Definitions
Figure 20: Grocery Outlet Universe by Channel - Zambia (no. of outlets), 2017f
Figure 21: Grocery Retail Sales by Channel - Zambia (% sales by value), 2017f
Figure 22: Grocery Retail Sales by Channel - Zambia (current, $m), 2017f
Figure 23: Grocery Retail Sales by Channel - Zambia and Southern Africa (% sales by value), 2017f
Figure 24: Modern vs. Traditional Trade - Zambia and Southern Africa (% sales by value), 2017f
Figure 25: Assessment of Retailer Network Strength and Format Diversification in Zambia
Figure 26: Grocery Retail Investment Outlook for Zambia
Figure 27: Market Opportunity vs. Market Maturity - Southern Africa, 2017f
Figure 28: Market Opportunity vs. Market Stability - Southern Africa, 2017f
Figure 29: Market Opportunity vs. Competitive Landscape - Southern Africa, 2017f
Figure 30: Grocery Retail Sales Forecast - Zambia (current, $m), 2017-2021f
Figure 31: Grocery Retail Sales per capita Forecast - Zambia (current, $m), 2017-2021f
Table of Tables
Table 1: Major Cities and Populations - Zambia
Table 2: Grocery Retail Sales per capita - Zambia (current, ‎ZK) 2012-2016
Table 3: Domestic grocery retailers in Zambia
Table 4: International grocery retailers in Zambia

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