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The Future of the Grocery Retail Market in Cameroon

The Future of the Grocery Retail Market in Cameroon

Cameroon is the distribution hub for West Africa. Until 2015, it had mostly been ignored by major international supermarket retailers. Because Cameroon lacks the scale of Nigeria and DRC or the accessibility of Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire or Senegal it has attracted little interest. That is changing, even though the collapse in oil prices has caused a downturn in the economy. Our forecasts for growth in Cameroon from 2017 are quite positive. Through to 2020 grocery spend will grow to levels that will support a much larger modern grocery retailing landscape.

A number of international retailers have stated an interest in entering Cameroon. The next five years will have a huge impact because of the lack of promising domestic acquisition candidates for investors that are late to market. We expect to see competition levels rise dramatically in Douala and Yaoundé, and also the first signs of accelerated modernization of grocery retail in secondary cities.

Assess the key drivers of grocery retail market growth in Cameroon and their impact on spending
Quantify the size of the Cameroonian grocery retail market and the role of modern trade in it
Identify the leading supermarket chains, the size of their networks and their position in the market
Understand the future of the grocery retail market and the factors that will shape market success
Forecast grocery retail spend through to 2020
The two largest cities in Cameroon, Douala and Yaoundé, have both nearly trebled in size in the past twenty years. But the faster growth has come from smaller cities such as Loum in the west and Mbouda (which is 30km from Bafoussam). At the moment, the links between these cities is relatively poor - even between Yaoundé and Douala.
The grocery retail market in Cameroon is immature, fragmented and more consolidated in the cities of Douala and Yaoundé than in the rest of the country. There are few domestic chains of note, and international retailers have not established themselves in secondary cities yet.
The competitive landscape in Cameroon has changed dramatically in the last year with the entry of Système U’s hypermarket and Spar’s large supermarket, both in Douala. It will continue to change over the next five years.
Because of its regional store profile in West and Central Africa, we believe that Cameroon is likely to become a target country for Shoprite.
Although grocery market retail growth has stalled in the current downturn, this is set to end in 2016. Per capita spending will take longer to recover We forecast that per capita spending will start rising again in 2017 and will keep rising through to 2020. But it will not break $300 per capita until after 2020.
What are the key drivers of grocery retail market growth?
What is the size of the grocery retail market
Who are the leading supermarket chains?
Which factors will shape market success?
What are the implications for brand owners?
How is the market different in Douala, Yaoundé and elsewhere in Cameroon?
How will grocery retail spend growth through to 2020?


Introduction
Scope and definitions
Defining informal/formal and traditional/modern trade
The Changing Retail Landscape
The key drivers of changing consumer lifestyles
The impact of changing consumer lifestyles on the retail landscape
The process of transition towards formal and modern retail as economies grow
The impact of modernization on the retail landscape
Market Dynamics
Introduction
Economic growth
Income and GDP per capita
Governance and risk
Logistics landscape and capabilities
Population growth
Household size
Urbanization in Cameroon and its impact on retail
Key trends in urbanization in Cameroon
Grocery Retail in Cameroon
Introduction
Grocery retail market size
Grocery retail spend per capita
Leading supermarket chains
Casino
Mahima
Groupe Fokou
Future Outlook and Grocery Retail Market Forecast
Market forecast
The development of supermarket retailing
Prospects for added value supermarket retailing
Prospects for forecourt and out of town retailing
Prospects for online retailing
Future outlook
About Trendtype
Table of Tables
GDP (Current $m), 2011-2015e
Key cities
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2011-2015
Grocery retail spend per capita ($), 2011-2015
Key players in grocery retailing
Casino key information
Mahima key information
Fokou key information
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2016-2020
Key issues driving future competition
Households with a refrigerator (‘000 households), 2011-2015
Households with a car (‘000 households), 2011-2015
Population with internet access (m), 2010-2014
Table of Figures
Key drivers of changing consumer lifestyles
Six key outputs for retailers of changing consumer lifestyles
Five key stages of grocery retail sector development
GDP (Current $m), 2011-2015
GDP, PPP per capita (constant 2011 international $), 2010-2014
GNI per capita ($, Atlas Method), 2010-2014
World Governance Indicators, 2014
Risk factors, Q3 2015
Logistics Performance Index, 2014
Population (m people), 2005-2015
Population (m people), 2015-2050
Average household size (number of people), 2009-2015
Number of households (m), 2009-2015
Urbanization rate (%), 2015-2050
Size of the urban population (m people), 2015-2050
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2011-2015
Grocery retail spend per capita ($), 2011-2015
Shoprite geographic profile
Tolaram geographic profile
Addide geographic profile
Massmart geographic profile
Massmart geographic profile
Competitive positioning
Super U Hypermarket
Santa Lucia Supermarket
Spar Supermarket
Mahima Supermarket
Grocery retail market value ($m), 2016-2020
Share of households owning a refrigerator (%), 2011-2015
Share of households owning a car (%), 2011-2015
Internet penetration (% population with internet access), 2010-2014

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