The Future of the Grocery Retail Market in Cameroon
Cameroon is the distribution hub for West Africa. Until 2015, it had mostly been ignored by major international supermarket retailers. Because Cameroon lacks the scale of Nigeria and DRC or the accessibility of Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire or Senegal it has attracted little interest. That is changing, even though the collapse in oil prices has caused a downturn in the economy. Our forecasts for growth in Cameroon from 2017 are quite positive. Through to 2020 grocery spend will grow to levels that will support a much larger modern grocery retailing landscape.
A number of international retailers have stated an interest in entering Cameroon. The next five years will have a huge impact because of the lack of promising domestic acquisition candidates for investors that are late to market. We expect to see competition levels rise dramatically in Douala and Yaoundé, and also the first signs of accelerated modernization of grocery retail in secondary cities.
Assess the key drivers of grocery retail market growth in Cameroon and their impact on spending
Quantify the size of the Cameroonian grocery retail market and the role of modern trade in it
Identify the leading supermarket chains, the size of their networks and their position in the market
Understand the future of the grocery retail market and the factors that will shape market success
Forecast grocery retail spend through to 2020
The two largest cities in Cameroon, Douala and Yaoundé, have both nearly trebled in size in the past twenty years. But the faster growth has come from smaller cities such as Loum in the west and Mbouda (which is 30km from Bafoussam). At the moment, the links between these cities is relatively poor - even between Yaoundé and Douala.
The grocery retail market in Cameroon is immature, fragmented and more consolidated in the cities of Douala and Yaoundé than in the rest of the country. There are few domestic chains of note, and international retailers have not established themselves in secondary cities yet.
The competitive landscape in Cameroon has changed dramatically in the last year with the entry of Système U’s hypermarket and Spar’s large supermarket, both in Douala. It will continue to change over the next five years.
Because of its regional store profile in West and Central Africa, we believe that Cameroon is likely to become a target country for Shoprite.
Although grocery market retail growth has stalled in the current downturn, this is set to end in 2016. Per capita spending will take longer to recover We forecast that per capita spending will start rising again in 2017 and will keep rising through to 2020. But it will not break $300 per capita until after 2020.
What are the key drivers of grocery retail market growth?
What is the size of the grocery retail market
Who are the leading supermarket chains?
Which factors will shape market success?
What are the implications for brand owners?
How is the market different in Douala, Yaoundé and elsewhere in Cameroon?
How will grocery retail spend growth through to 2020?