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The Titanium Age: Markets, Opportunities and New Technologies, 2019

The Titanium Age: Markets,Opportunities and New Technologies, 2019

Titanium, an abundant resource with enormous potential in a large number of markets, has beenhobbled by high costs, unstable volatile prices, processing difficulties, supply issues and industrywideinefficiencies.

Titanium has the highest strength-to-density ratio of any metal, is essentially nonmagnetic, and ishighly resistant to corrosion, even in hostile environments like salt water. Furthermore, it is highlybiocompatible. Titanium has become well established in aerospace, trucks and heavy vehicles,medicine, chemical processing and general industry.

In recent years titanium suppliers have worked hard to bring the benefits of titanium to newapplications, but just as new markets for titanium have opened up, the supply of titanium hasfluctuated considerably, with notable effects on prices. Much of the constricting of supply wasattributable to sharply rising aerospace demand as well as greater use in steel production, whichreduced the supply of available scrap. These factors have led, in the past, led to extraordinaryrunups in prices, where some more than doubled in a single year, and some users were simplyunable to obtain the titanium they needed. The volatility dampened enthusiasm for titanium in newmarkets where it could offer substantial long term cost savings and the instability often made itimpossible to cultivate new markets.

In the last decade, suppliers of titanium sponge and other products rapidly expanded their output,only to see demand and prices drop with the recession. Today, after several years of sluggishdemand for many commodities, titanium is rebounding and as the aerospace sector has workedthrough its stockpiled titanium, demand has been restored to reasonably healthy levels as capacityfor most products has levelled off. Emerging markets, particularly medical, are even outpacingtraditional markets.

Throughout all this, a number of low cost processing and manufacturing technologies havecontinued development that promise titanium (commercially pure and alloyed), potentially at greatlyreduced cost. These processes, some of which are already commercialized, will significantly reducecosts in extraction, machining, welding and manufacture of titanium, while relieving supply issuesthat have plagued users in the past.

The promise of supply stability and lower prices can be expected to create an opening wherebynew markets can be captured, bringing titanium to a broad range of new applications. Low costproduction processes could provide a substantial investment opportunity.

Understand the Markets

Thintri’s new market study analyzes the current state of traditional titanium markets and currenteconomic conditions. The effects of emerging low cost titanium processes and the market forces thatwill determine the future of the industry are investigated in detail. New and sometimes unexpectedmarket opportunities are analyzed and forecasts are provided for both traditional markets, some ofthem unaffected by low cost processes, and new market opportunities created by low cost titanium.

The report is based on more than 100 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, Governmentand academia, as well as a broad range of published materials.


Executive Summary
E1 Introduction
E2 Background: Titanium
E3 The Titanium Industry Today
E4 Supply and Capacity Issues
Figure ES-1 Sponge Capacity by Country
Figure ES-2 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
Figure ES-3 Titanium Use by Aircraft Type
E5 Price Trends
Figure ES- 4 Sample Plate Price Trends, Alloy Plate
E6 Demand Outlook
Figure ES-5 Global Metallic Titanium Demand,
Conventional Forecast
Figure ES-6 Global Titanium Demand by Market,
Conventional Forecast, Industrial, Medical and
Consumer Sectors
E7 Commercialization of Low Cost Titanium Processes
E8 Effect of a New Low-Cost Player
E9 Latent Demand
Figure ES-7 Global Automotive Latent Demand
Figure ES-8 Global Latent Defense Demand, Armor
Figure ES-9 Global Industrial Latent Demand
Part I Background on Titanium
1.1 Overview
1.2 Titanium in Industry
Figure 1-1 Shares by Weight, Metallic Titanium versus Titanium in Pigment
1.3 History
1.4 Titanium Production
1.5 Issues with Titanium
Part II Industry Landscape
2.1 The Demand Side
Table 2-1 Current Titanium Markets
2.1.1 The Aerospace Sector
2.1.1.1 Titanium Deployment in Aircraft
2.1.1.2 The Evolving Aerospace Market
2.1.1.3 Regulations and Certification
2.1.2 Industry, Chemical Processing, etc
2.1.2.1 Industrial Markets
Figure 2-1 Industrial Titanium Markets
2.1.3 Medical Applications
2.1.4 Consumer Markets
2.1.5 Automotive Applications
2.1.5.1 Passenger Cars
Table 2-2 Commercial Automobile Titanium Components
2.1.5.2 Trucks and Heavy Vehicles
2.2 The Supply Side
2.2.1 Titanium Supply, Demand and Price Dynamics
2.2.2 Pre-Melt: Sponge and Scrap
2.2.2.1 Sponge
Figure 2-2 Sponge Capacity Growth by Country
Figure 2-3 Sponge Capacity Trends, US vs. Global
2.2.2.2 Scrap
Figure 2-4 Scrap Availability Trends
2.2.3 Melt Products
Figure 2-5 Melt Product Capacity Trends
2.2.4 Mill Products
Figure 2-6 Mill Product Capacity Trends
Figure 2-7 Mill Product Demand Trends
2.2.5 Capacity Today
2.3 Demand Drivers, Effects on Prices
2.3.1 The Aerospace Factor
Figure 2-8 Titanium Use per Craft, by Aircraft Type
Figure 2-9 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Passenger
Figure 2-10 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries, Freight
2.3.2 Other Factors in Supply
2.3.3 The Effect on New Markets
2.4 Industry Contracts, Agreements and Price Negotiations
Part III Cost Issues, Lead Times and
Today’s Market Outlook
3.1 Effects of Price Volatility and Industry Structure
3.2 Price Behavior and Forecasts
3.2.1 Sponge
Figure 3-1 Sponge Price Trends
3.2.2 Scrap
Figure 3-2 Scrap Price Trends, Turnings
Figure 3-3 Scrap Price Trends, Bulk Weldable
Figure 3-4 Scrap Price Trends, Clips
Figure 3-5 Scrap Price Trends, Ferro-Titanium
3.2.3 Melt Products
3.2.3.1 Slab
Figure 3-6 Slab Price Trends
3.2.3.2 Ingot
Figure 3-7 Ingot Price Trends
3.2.3.3 Plate
Figure 3-8 Plate Price Trends, B265 CP
Figure 3-9 Plate Price Trends, 4911 Alloy
Figure 3-10 Toll Rolling Price Trends, B265 CP
and 4911 Alloy Plate
3.3 Today’s Market Outlook
3.3.1 Post-Recession Factors
3.3.2 Recovery of the Titanium Industry
Figure 3-11 Global Metallic Titanium Demand,
Conventional Forecast
Figure 3-12 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional
Forecast, Industrial, Medical and Consumer Sectors
Figure 3-13 Global Titanium Demand by Market,
Conventional Forecast, Commercial Aerospace, Military
Aerospace and Military Non-aerospace Sectors
3.4 Lead Times
3.5 Effects of Trade Wars, Sanctions, etc
Part IV Commercialization of Low-Cost Titanium
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Raw Material Issues
4.3 Composition and Alloying
4.4 Quality, Purity, Performance
4.5 Ore-To-Metal Processes
4.5.1 MER/DuPont
4.5.2 Rio Tinto
4.5.3 UTRS, Inc
4.6 The Powder Advantage
4.6.1 Introduction
4.6.2 MMS-Scanpac
4.6.3 University of Utah
4.6.4 ADMA Products
4.6.5 ITP/Cristal Metals
4.6.6 Metalysis
4.6.7 Oak Ridge/Boeing
4.6.8 Powder Applications, Demand & Pricing
4.6.9 MIM
4.6.10 3-D Printing/Additive Manufacturing
4.7 Manufacture & Fabrication
4.7.1 American Titanium Works
4.7.2 Ti Squared Technologies
4.8 Machining
4.9 Welding
4.10 Titanium Process Commercialization
4.11 Effect of a New, Low-Cost Player
Part V Latent Demand and Market Opportunities
5.1 Current Market Outlook: Conventional and Latent
Demand
Figure 5-1 Overall Global Latent Titanium Demand
5.2 Consumer Markets
5.2.1 Established Consumer Applications
5.2.1.1 Sporting Goods
5.2.1.2 Jewelry
5.2.1.3 Architecture
Table 5-1 Titanium Tiles at the Guggenheim Museum,Bilbao, Spain
5.2.1.4 Marine Markets
5.2.1.5 Price and Supply Issues
5.2.1.6 Latent Consumer Demand
Figure 5-2 Global Latent Demand, Consumer Markets,
Non-Automotive
5.3 Automotive Markets
5.3.1 Trucks and Commercial Vehicles
5.3.1.1 Turbocharger Compressor Wheels
5.3.1.2 Valve Train
5.3.1.3 Connecting Rods
5.3.1.4 Exhaust Systems
5.3.1.5 Suspensions
5.3.2 Opportunities in Mass Market Autos
Table 5-2 Existing and Potential Titanium Automotive
Applications
5.3.2.1 Valve Train, Valves, Valve Springs
5.3.2.2 Connecting Rods
5.3.2.3 Exhaust Systems
5.3.2.4 Suspensions
5.3.3 Racing, Motorcycles and Other Small Vehicles
5.3.4 Regulations and Fuel Economy
5.3.5 Economics
5.3.6 Latent Automotive Demand
Figure 5-3 Global Latent Demand, Automotive Markets
5.4 General Industry, Oil & Gas, Mining, etc
5.4.1 Chemical Processing, Pharmaceuticals, etc
5.4.2 Oil & Gas, Mining
5.4.3 Power Generation
5.4.4 Pulp & Paper
5.4.5 Desalination
5.4.6 Latent Industrial Demand
Figure 5-4 Global Latent Demand, Industrial Markets
5.5 Aerospace
Figure 5-5 Commercial Aerospace Latent Demand
5.6 Defense
5.6.1 Armor
5.6.1.1 Armoring Vehicles
5.6.1.2 Non-Vehicle Armor
5.6.1.3 Fuel Economy
5.6.1.4 Procurement Issues
5.6.2 Naval Applications
5.6.3 Latent Defense Demand
Figure 5-6 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Armor
Figure 5-7 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Other
5.7 Medical Markets
5.7.1 Orthopedic Devices: Implants, Trauma Fixtures, etc
5.7.2 Surgical Instruments
5.7.3 Latent Medical Demand
Figure 5-8 Global Latent Demand, Medical Implants
Figure 5-9 Global Latent Demand, Surgical Instruments
Appendix A Glossary of Terms
Appendix B Professional Biography

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