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Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities

Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities

Platinum group metals are at an extraordinary intersection of market forces. Their rarity and expense has largely confined them to a limited set of markets. Those markets, in turn, are largely dependent on PGMs simply because there have been no viable, and cheaper, alternatives. The inelasticity of supply has led to occasionally extreme volatility in the past. Today, growing demand, fueled by a range of factors that include accelerating motor vehicle sales around the world, a rising industrial sector in the developing world and a growing consumer preference for white metals in jewelry, while supplies are relatively fixed and in some cases declining, threatens to put PGMs in an even more volatile situation. As demand exceeds available supplies, prices can be expected to rise significantly. The Thintri market study, Platinum Group Metals: Issues and Opportunities, relies on in-depth interviews with industry executives, market development managers and government and academic researchers. The report provides a survey of the current state of the PGM markets, an assessment of viable alternatives and recovery schemes, and discussion of the effects of growing demand on availability and prices, and the effects on those prices of PGM replacement technologies and improved recovery methods.


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: PLATINUM GROUP METALS
E.1 Introduction
E.2 Applications
E.3 Supply, Demand and Price Issues
Figure E-1 Source Countries of PGMs
Figure E-2 Platinum Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts
Figure E-3 Palladium Price Forecast
E.4 PGM Replacement and Improved Recovery Methods
Figure E-4 Total Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
Figure E-5 Resulting Rhodium Price, After Alternatives
PART 1 HISTORY & BACKGROUND
1.1 Introduction
Table 1-1 Platinum Group Metals and Characteristics
Figure 1-1 Periodic Table of the Elements with PGMs Highlighted
Table 1-2 PGM Prices, September, 2017
1.2 The Elements
1.2.1 Platinum
1.2.2 Palladium
1.2.3 Rhodium
1.2.4 Iridium
1.2.5 Ruthenium
1.2.6 Osmium
1.3 Sourcing
1.3.1 Extraction
1.3.2 Major Producers
PART 2 APPLICATIONS
2.1 Electronic components
2.2 Medical & Dental
2.3 Industrial and Scientific
2.3.1 General Industrial
2.3.2 Glass Manufacture
2.3.3 Scientific
2.4 Automotive: Catalytic Converters, Spark Plugs and Sensors
2.5 Jewelry
2.6 Investment and Coinage
2.7 Catalysts
2.7.1 Catalysts: Industrial
2.7.2 Catalysts: Petroleum and Petrochemicals
2.7.3 Catalysts: Automotive
2.7.4 Catalysts: Fuel Cells
Figure 2-1 PEMFC Fuel Cell Operation
PART 3 THE SUPPLY SIDE: PGM SUPPLIES, PEAK MATERIALS AND SCARCITY 45
3.1 Today’s PGM Sources
Figure 3-1 PGM Production by Country
Figure 3-2 Platinum Production by Country
Figure 3-3 Palladium Production by Country
Figure 3-4 Other PGM Production by Country
3.2 Peak Metals & Scarcity
Table 3-1 Minerals That Have Already Peaked
3.3 Response to Shortages
3.4 Lessons from the 1970s Cobalt Crisis
3.5 Political Issues
3.6 Today’s Price/Supply Threats
3.7 The Case of Palladium
PART 4. THE DEMAND SIDE: MARKET GROWTH AND PRICE TRENDS
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The Automotive Demand Driver
4.2.1 The Automotive Market Today
4.2.2 Electric Vehicles and Their Impact
4.2.3 Outlook for the Future
Figure 4-1 Platinum Demand by Region, Autocatalysts, 2018
Figure 4-2 Palladium Demand by Region, Autocatalysts 2018
Figure 4-3 Platinum Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts
Figure 4-4 Platinum Demand Forecast by Region, Autocatalysts
Figure 4-5 Palladium Demand Forecast – Autocatalysts
Figure 4-6 Palladium Demand Forecast by Region, Autocatalysts
Figure 4-7 Rhodium Demand Forecast, Autocatalysts
4.3 The Jewelry and Investment Demand Drivers
Figure 4-8 Platinum Demand by Region, Investment and Jewelry, 2018
Figure 4-9 Palladium Demand by Region, Investment and Jewelry, 2018
Figure 4-10 Platinum Demand Forecast – Investment and Jewelry
Figure 4-11 Palladium Demand Forecast – Investment and Jewelry
4.4 The Petroleum Demand Driver
Figure 4-12 Platinum Demand by Region, Petroleum 2018
Figure 4-13 Platinum Demand Forecast, Petroleum
4.5 Industrial: Chemical, Electrical, Electrochemical and Glass Demand Drivers
Figure 4-14 Platinum Demand by Region, Chemical and Glass 2018
Figure 4-15 Palladium Demand by Region, Chemical 2018
Figure 4-16 Platinum Demand Forecast, Chemical and Glass
Figure 4-17 Palladium Demand Forecast – Chemical
Figure 4-18 Rhodium Demand Forecast – Chemical and Glass
Figure 4-19 Platinum Demand Forecast, Electrical
Figure 4-20 Palladium Demand Forecast – Electrical
Figure 4-21 Rhodium Demand Forecast - Electrical
Figure 4-22 Iridium Demand Forecast, Chemical, Electrical and Electrochemical
Figure 4-23 Ruthenium Demand Forecast, Chemical, Electrical and Electrochemical
4.6 Medical, Biomedical and Dental Demand Drivers
Figure 4-24 Platinum Demand by Region, Biomedical 2018
Figure 4-25 Platinum Demand Forecast – Biomedical
Figure 4-26 Palladium Demand by Region, Dental 2018
Figure 4-27 Palladium Demand Forecast, Dental
4.7 Other Market Drivers
Figure 4-28 Platinum Demand by Region, Other Applications 2018
Figure 4-29 Palladium Demand by Region, Other Applications 2018
Figure 4-30 Platinum Demand Forecast, Other Applications
Figure 4-31 Palladium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
Figure 4-32 Rhodium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
Figure 4-33 Iridium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
Figure 4-34 Ruthenium Demand Forecast, Other Applications
4.8 PGM Demand by Element
4.8.1 Platinum
Figure 4-35 Platinum Demand by Application, 2018
Figure 4-36 Platinum Demand by Region, 2018
Figure 4-37 Global Platinum Demand Forecast
Figure 4-38 Global Platinum Demand Forecast by Region
4.8.2 Palladium
Figure 4-39 Palladium Demand by Application, 2018
Figure 4-40 Palladium Demand by Region, 2018
Figure 4-41 Global Palladium Demand Forecast
Figure 4-42 Global Palladium Demand Forecast by Region
4.8.3 Rhodium
Figure 4-43 Rhodium Demand by Application, 2018
Figure 4-44 Rhodium Demand Forecast
4.8.4 Iridium, Ruthenium and Osmium
Figure 4-45 Iridium Demand by Application, 2018
Figure 4-46 Iridium Demand Forecast
Figure 4-47 Ruthenium Demand by Application, 2018
Figure 4-48 Ruthenium Demand Forecast
Figure 4-49 Osmium Demand by Application, 2018
Figure 4-50 Osmium Demand Forecast
4.9 Effects of Alternative Energy Schemes and the Hydrogen Economy
Figure 4-51 Production of Hydrogen, Shares by Method
PART 5. PRICE TRENDS
5.1 Introduction and Methodology
5.2 Influences on Near-Term PGM Price
5.3 Trends Up To Today
5.4 Platinum
5.5 Palladium
5.6 Rhodium
Figure 5-1 Recent Rhodium Price History
5.7 The Investment Picture
5.3 Projected Price Trends
Figure 5-2 Price Trends, Platinum
Figure 5-3 Price Trends, Palladium
Figure 5-4 Price Trends, Rhodium
Figure 5-5 Price Trends, Iridium
Figure 5-6 Price Trends, Ruthenium
Figure 5-7 Price Trends, Osmium
PART 6. PGM REPLACEMENT
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Precious Metals as Alternatives and Reduced PGM-Schemes
6.2.1 Precious Metal-Based Substitutes in Autocatalysts
6.2.2 Jewelry
6.3 PGM-Free and Reduced PGM Autocatalysts
6.3.1 Alternatives Based on Conventional Chemistry
6.3.2 Alternatives Based on Nanotechnology
6.4 Electrolysis and Fuel Cell Catalyst Alternatives
6.4.1 Research Progress
6.4.2 Nanotechnology: Catalysts Based on Nanoparticles and Nanotubes
6.5 Impact of Alternatives on PGM Demand and Price
6.5.1 Effects of Platinum Alternatives
Figure 6-1 Platinum Demand, Conventional Forecast
Figure 6-2 Platinum Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement
Figure 6-3 Autocatalysts: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-4 Chemical: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-5 Petroleum: Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-6 Total Platinum Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-7 Resulting Platinum Demand After Alternatives
Figure 6-8 Resulting Platinum Price, After Alternatives
Figure 6-9 Demand for Platinum Alternatives
6.5.2 Effects of Palladium Alternatives
Figure 6-10 Palladium Demand, Conventional Forecast
Figure 6-11 Palladium Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement
Figure 6-12 Autocatalysts: Palladium Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-13 Chemical: Palladium Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-14 Total Palladium Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-15 Resulting Palladium Demand After Alternatives
Figure 6-16 Resulting Palladium Price, After Alternatives
Figure 6-17 Demand for Palladium Alternatives
6.5.3 Effects of Rhodium Alternatives
Figure 6-18 Rhodium Demand, Conventional Forecast
Figure 6-19 Rhodium Demand Not Susceptible to Replacement
Figure 6-20 Autocatalysts: Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-21 Chemical: Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-22 Total Rhodium Displaced by Alternatives
Figure 6-23 Resulting Rhodium Demand After Alternatives
Figure 6-24 Resulting Rhodium Price, After Alternatives
Figure 6-25 Demand for Rhodium Alternatives
6.5.4 Effects of Alternatives in Hydrogen Fuel Cell Catalysis
Figure 6-26 Effect of Alternatives on PGM Demand in Hydrogen Fuel Cells
PART 7. OPPORTUNITIES IN RECYCLING AND RECOVERY
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Scrap & Recycling
Table 7-1 Energy Savings from Processing Scrap Compared with Ore
7.2.1 Electronics and Electrochemistry Scrap
7.2.2 Automotive Scrap
7.2.3 Market Opportunities in PGM Recycling
Figure 7-1 Realized Scrap Volume: Platinum, Autocatalysts & Jewelry
Figure 7-2 Realized Scrap Volume: Platinum, Other Applications
Figure 7-3 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Platinum, Autocatalysts & Jewelry
Figure 7-4 Unrealized Scrap Volume, Platinum, Other Applications
Figure 7-5 Realized Scrap Volume: Palladium, Autocatalysts, Electrical & Jewelry
Figure 7-6 Realized Scrap Volume: Palladium, Chemical, Dental & Other
Figure 7-7 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Palladium, Autocatalysts, Electrical & Jewelry
Figure 7-8 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Palladium, Chemical, Dental & Other
Figure 7-9 Realized Scrap Volume: Rhodium, Autocatalysts & Chemical
Figure 7-10 Realized Scrap Volume: Rhodium, Electrical, Glass & Other
Figure 7-11 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Rhodium, Autocatalysts & Chemical
Figure 7-12 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Rhodium, Electrical, Glass & Other
Figure 7-13 Realized Scrap Volume: Iridium
Figure 7-14 Unrealized Scrap Volume: Iridium
Figure 7-15 Realized Scrap Volume, Ruthenium
Figure 7-16 Unrealized Scrap Volume, Ruthenium
7.3 Slag and Mine Waste
Figure 7-17 PGM Slag Recovery, North America
Figure 7-18 Slag Recovery, North America, by Metal
Figure 7-19 PGM Slag Recovery, Rest of World
Figure 7-20 Slag Recovery, Rest of World, by Metal
Figure 7-21 New PGM Supply with Improved Recovery: Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium
Figure 7-22 New PGM Supply with Improved Recovery: Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium
7.4 Effect of Improved Recycling and Slag Recovery on PGM Prices
Figure 7-23 Conventional Price Forecast: Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium
Figure 7-24 Conventional Price Forecast: Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium
Figure 7-25 Prices, with Improved Recovery: Platinum, Palladium, Rhodium
Figure 7-26 Prices with Improved Recovery: Iridium, Ruthenium, Osmium
7.5 Long-Term Supply Solutions: Near-Earth Asteroid Mining

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